Peak Oil and Petrobras

Tony Daltorio, Investment U Research

Back on Wednesday, September 9, I wrote on how to profit from British Petroleum ADR (NYSE: BP)’s huge discovery in the Gulf of Mexico, and how to profit from peak oil.

And while I stand by the profitability of both that find and stock, I think I should clarify that “peak oil” really doesn’t exist anymore. So instead, let’s call it peak-cheap-and-easily-recoverable-oil instead, since that seems much more appropriate.

The days of cheap and accessible oil are long gone, but that very fact opens up rich opportunities for investors who face up to the realities of today’s oil market.

Possibly the biggest reality comes down to this: Giant oil fields are the industry’s lifeblood. Out of the world’s 70,000 oil fields, the largest twenty account for a quarter of global production.

That’s

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Having recently completed a week-long trip to the cities of São Paulo, Brasilia, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, I am struck with several observations that relate to relations with Venezuela, Russia, and the international business community.  The title of this post I borrow from Professor Marshall Eakin of Vanderbilt University, whose 1998 book does much to capture the country's long-standing hope of ascendency in global relations - this nearly permanent sensation that the country is on the cusp of major change, only to see the opportunity escape due to unfortunate coincidences and mistakes.  There are many who believe that this time Brazil's rise might be for real.I had the opportunity to meet Professor Eakin last week at lunch, ...

Everything is happening just as we thought it would. Stocks are rising. And people think they see better times coming.

Whoa… this is eerie! Following the great crash of ’07-’09 cometh the rebound. Hesitant, cautious at first…

Then, people begin to believe it. They begin to see the “green shoots” of a revival. Stock prices rise. The green shoots sink deeper roots and flower. Pretty soon, people think they are in knee-high clover.

Confidence is rising. Consumers, house-holders, investors – all think the worst is over. And if the worst is over, better times must be coming. If better times are coming, prices should be rising. And investors should be making money. And businesses should be expanding.

It’s all happening as forecast. Except that businesses aren’t expanding. The underlying economy is not really getting better. It’s actually getting weaker. But we’ll talk about that another day.

Today… we issue a warning: watch out, the

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