The new facility will maintain, monitor and support computer hardware, software and manage IT services for IBM's clients. The new center joins an extensive network of more than 80 IBM delivery centers worldwide.

For the new facility, IBM intends to hire up to 1,300 people by the end of 2010.

With an investment of $300 million in 2008, IBM built 13 Business Resilience service delivery centers in 10 countries, increasing its ability to address surging demand from businesses and governments from around the world seeking to keep their operations safe from disruption. IBM also plans to open a new collocation data center at its Greenock facility in Scotland and three new global delivery centers in Argentina.

To further bolster its presence in India, the company earlier opened a new Global Delivery Center (GDC) in Pune, India, which will act as the regional hub for IBM Tivoli service management software and strategy, and will provide clients with business consulting and application services.

We expect these centers to help increase revenue going forward. While IBM's initiative to expand its footprint in both domestic and international markets has helped it to win a number of IT deals, the IT services business is becoming increasingly competitive. In particular, IBM is facing pricing pressure from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Sun Microsystems (JAVA), Intel Corporation (INTC) and Dell (DELL).

Despite this, we believe IBM's new IT initiatives position the company for long term growth. Thus we maintain our Outperform rating on the stock.

1. We, the Leaders of the Group of Twenty, met in London on 2 April 2009.

2. We face the greatest challenge to the world economy in modern times; a crisis which has deepened since we last met, which affects the lives of women, men, and children in every country, and which all countries must join together to resolve. A global crisis requires a global solution.

Things stink all over due to this mess, and it has gotten worse lately.

3. We start from the belief that prosperity is indivisible; that growth, to be sustained, has to be shared; and that our global plan for recovery must have at its heart the needs and jobs of hard-working families, not just in developed countries but in emerging markets and the poorest countries of the world too; and must reflect the interests, not just of today's population, but of future generations too. We believe that the only sure foundation for sustainable globalization and rising prosperity for all is an open world economy based on market principles, effective regulation, and strong global institutions.

It would be nice if everybody could grow and get richer.  Lets not forget about the poor countries that have been hurt even more than the rich countries by this crisis, even though it was not their fault.  However, we will not fundamentally alter the overall global economic system.

4. We have today therefore pledged to do whatever is necessary to:

• restore confidence, growth, and jobs;
• repair the financial system to restore lending;
• strengthen financial regulation to rebuild trust;
• fund and reform our international financial institutions to overcome this crisis and prevent future ones; promote global trade and investment and reject protectionism, to underpin prosperity; and
• build an inclusive, green, and sustainable recovery.

By acting together to fulfill these pledges we will bring the world economy out of recession and prevent a crisis like this from recurring in the future.

Nice set of goals.  However, what is meant by do "what ever is necessary" to repair the financial system.  Calls for stronger regulation of markets are good and very much needed.  The international financial institutions they are referring to here are the World Bank, the IMF and their regional counterparts.

5. The agreements we have reached today, to treble resources available to the IMF to $750 billion, to support a new SDR allocation of $250 billion, to support at least $100 billion of additional lending by the MDBs, to ensure $250 billion of support for trade finance, and to use the additional resources from agreed IMF gold sales for concessional finance for the poorest countries, constitute an additional $1.1 trillion programme of support to restore credit, growth and jobs in the world economy. Together with the measures we have each taken nationally, this constitutes a global plan for recovery on an unprecedented scale.

This is a major increase in support for the IMF and is a very useful step.  It actually means that the calls to help out the poor countries that are suffering from this are not just platitudes, but that the major countries of the world are actually prepared to help.

Restoring growth and jobs

6. We are undertaking an unprecedented and concerted fiscal expansion, which will save or create millions of jobs which would otherwise have been destroyed, and that will, by the end of next year, amount to $5 trillion, raise output by 4 per cent, and accelerate the transition to a green economy. We are committed to deliver the scale of sustained fiscal effort necessary to restore growth.

I will note that the vast bulk of that $5 trillion is coming from a handful of countries, most notably the U.S. and China, with honorable mentions to Japan and the U.K. Continental Europe is effectively trying to free ride off the increased aggregate demand from the countries that are actively stimulating their economies. I would however read this clause as an endorsement of the Obama Strategy.

7. Our central banks have also taken exceptional action. Interest rates have been cut aggressively in most countries, and our central banks have pledged to maintain expansionary policies for as long as needed and to use the full range of monetary policy instruments, including unconventional instruments, consistent with price stability.

A pat on the back for the central bankers.  This is an explicit endorsement of the use of Quantitative Easing (central banks buying long term government bonds and effectively printing money) which is being implemented by the Fed and the Bank of England.  I would also see this as a call for the European Central Bank (ECB) help out a bit more.

8. Our actions to restore growth cannot be effective until we restore domestic lending and international capital flows. We have provided significant and comprehensive support to our banking systems to provide liquidity, recapitalize financial institutions, and address decisively the problem of impaired assets. We are committed to take all necessary actions to restore the normal flow of credit through the financial system and ensure the soundness of systemically important institutions, implementing our policies in line with the agreed G20 framework for restoring lending and repairing the financial sector.

We have thrown lots of money at the banks to keep the system afloat and are prepared to continue throwing money at the banks.

9. Taken together, these actions will constitute the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus and the most comprehensive support programme for the financial sector in modern times. Acting together strengthens the impact and the exceptional policy actions announced so far must be implemented without delay. Today, we have further agreed over $1 trillion of additional resources for the world economy through our international financial institutions and trade finance.

Yes, it has been a lot of money we have thrown at the banks.  So far we have been helping out private commercial banks.  However given the scale of this problem we also need to significantly increase the resources of the IMF and World Bank (mostly IMF).

10. Last month the IMF estimated that world growth in real terms would resume and rise to over 2 percent by the end of 2010. We are confident that the actions we have agreed today, and our unshakeable commitment to work together to restore growth and jobs, while preserving long-term fiscal sustainability, will accelerate the return to trend growth. We commit today to taking whatever action is necessary to secure that outcome, and we call on the IMF to assess regularly the actions taken and the global actions required.

The sun will come out tomorrow.  We think this plan will work, but perhaps the IMF can give some progress reports from time to time.

11. We are resolved to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and price stability and will put in place credible exit strategies from the measures that need to be taken now to support the financial sector and restore global demand. We are convinced that by implementing our agreed policies we will limit the longer-term costs to our economies, thereby reducing the scale of the fiscal consolidation necessary over the longer term.

We are sure we can pull back from the fiscal stimulus before it bankrupts us and from the monetary stimulus before hyperinflation breaks out.  You don't get to be a head of state by lacking in confidence, and this was a meeting of 20 heads of state or government.

12. We will conduct all our economic policies cooperatively and responsibly with regard to the impact on other countries and will refrain from competitive devaluation of our currencies and promote a stable and well-functioning international monetary system. We will support, now and in the future, to candid, even-handed, and independent IMF surveillance of our economies and financial sectors, of the impact of our policies on others, and of risks facing the global economy.

If the independent surveillance of the economy by the IMF applies to the U.S. then this is big news.  More likely there are no teeth to this.  If the U.S were any other country, the IMF would have long ago pressed us to nationalize the banks, clean them up and sell them off.

Strengthening financial supervision and regulation

13. Major failures in the financial sector and in financial regulation and supervision were fundamental causes of the crisis. Confidence will not be restored until we rebuild trust in our financial system. We will take action to build a stronger, more globally consistent, supervisory and regulatory framework for the future financial sector, which will support sustainable global growth and serve the needs of business and citizens.

Deregulation was a VERY bad idea when it comes to financial institutions.  With the world now interconnected more than ever before, regulations need to be strengthened and made more consistent across boarders.

14. We each agree to ensure our domestic regulatory systems are strong. But we also agree to establish the much greater consistency and systematic cooperation between countries, and the framework of internationally agreed high standards, that a global financial system requires. Strengthened regulation and supervision must promote propriety, integrity and transparency; guard against risk across the financial system; dampen rather than amplify the financial and economic cycle; reduce reliance on inappropriately risky sources of financing; and discourage excessive risk-taking. Regulators and supervisors must protect consumers and investors, support market discipline, avoid adverse impacts on other countries, reduce the scope for regulatory arbitrage, support competition and dynamism, and keep pace with innovation in the marketplace.

Everyone has to regulate, no trying to lure financial activity to your country by promising to look the other way when institutions take on excessive risk in the hunt for short term profits.

15. To this end we are implementing the Action Plan agreed at our last meeting, as set out in the attached progress report. We have today also issued a Declaration, Strengthening the Financial System.

In particular we agree:

• to establish a new Financial Stability Board (FSB) with a strengthened mandate, as a successor to the Financial Stability Forum (FSF), including all G20 countries, FSF members, Spain, and the European Commission;
  that the FSB should collaborate with the IMF to provide early warning of macroeconomic and financial risks and the actions needed to address them;
  to reshape our regulatory systems so that our authorities are able to identify and take account of macro-prudential risks;
• to extend regulation and oversight to all systemically important financial institutions, instruments and markets. This will include, for the first time, systemically important hedge funds;
• to endorse and implement the FSF's tough new principles on pay and compensation and to support sustainable compensation schemes and the corporate social responsibility of all firms;
• to take action, once recovery is assured, to improve the quality, quantity, and international consistency of capital in the banking system. In future, regulation must prevent excessive leverage and require buffers of resources to be built up in good times;
• to take action against non-cooperative jurisdictions, including tax havens. We stand ready to deploy sanctions to protect our public finances and financial systems. The era of banking secrecy is over. We note that the OECD has today published a list of countries assessed by the Global Forum against the international standard for exchange of tax information;
• to call on the accounting standard setters to work urgently with supervisors and regulators to improve standards on valuation and provisioning and achieve a single set of high-quality global accounting standards; and
  to extend regulatory oversight and registration to Credit Rating Agencies to ensure they meet the international code of good practice, particularly to prevent unacceptable conflicts of interest.

That is a long list of reforms and areas for tighter supervision.  Mostly it amounts to more international cooperation on regulation, in a more formal and institutionalized way.  The call for regulation and oversight of the Credit Rating agencies (i.e. Moody's and S&P) is long overdue, as their lack of action and incompetence was a major factor in this whole mess occurring.  All big financial institutions, including hedge funds need to be regulated.

16. We instruct our Finance Ministers to complete the implementation of these decisions in line with the timetable set out in the Action Plan. We have asked the FSB and the IMF to monitor progress, working with the Financial Action Taskforce and other relevant bodies, and to provide a report to the next meeting of our Finance Ministers in Scotland in November.

We hope we can get our act together by November.

That is about half of the statement, I will have a follow up post on the rest of it.  In general the basic thrust of the statement is that it endorses aggressive government actions, both on the fiscal and monetary front to address the crisis.  It calls for much stronger regulation.  Perhaps the most significant news is a very large commitment to strengthening the resources of the IMF to help some of the emerging economy's deal with the fallout of this mess that they did not create.

"The Kazakh government is ready to step in,'' Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Karim Masimov said this morning in a telephone interview with Bloomberg "The Kazakh banking system with the support of the government and central bank will fulfill all obligations to international investors.....We have our own specific plan to survive without any external support....I don't think we need support from the International Monetary Fund or overseas.''

Ranked as the ninth largest country in the world by size, it is also the world's largest landlocked country, with a territory of some 2,727,300 km² (which is greater than the whole of Western Europe). It is bordered by Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and China. On the other hand, and despite its enormous size, Kazakhstan has a comparatively small population. No one actually has an exact idea of the actual size of the Kazakhstan population (not to mention the thorny issue of just how many foreign migrants live and work there), but the US Census Bureau International Database list the current population of Kazakhstan as 16.763 million, while sources drawing their data from the United Nations (like the IMF which I have relied on for the chart below) give a 2008 estimate of 15.135 million. In any event the current population level, after falling in the early 1990s as ethnic Russians left, has now stabilised, and is virtually stationary. This virtually stagnant population constitutes, as we will see, a significant problem for a country with such a massive resource base, and such enormous economic and development potential as Kazakhstan would seem to have.

Record Oil Revenue Boom

Kazakhstan is the biggest energy producer in Central Asia and the country's $100 billion economy has in fact grown at an average of 10 percent a year rate since 2000 (see chart below), in particular as the price of oil has surged. This rapid GDP growth produced a rapid increase in per capita income as well as national creditworthiness, and these in turn sparked in their wake a substantial construction boom. Indeed it has precisely been the bursting of this boom in the autumn of 2007 - on the back of the seize-up in global wholesale money markets which followed August's financial turmoil in the USA - which lies at the heart of Kazakhstan's current growth slowdown. Kazakhstan's economy expanded at a 'mere' 5.3 percent rate in the first quarter of 2008, half the pace achieved in the same period a year earlier, following a dramatic curtailment in bank lending, and if Kazakhstan is still able, despite all the problems we will see below, to maintain some sort of growth momentum at this point it is undoubtedly the result of the oil and other commodity resources which the country has at its disposal, and indeed as part of its initial response to the present crisis the country increased crude production by an annual 6.3 percent in the first four months of the year, according to official government data.




Now one of the most curious details about the present slowdown in Kazakhstan, has been the fact that at the very same time as the economy started to lose velocity the central bank found itself busy struggling to curb an inflation rate which was steadily shooting onwards and upwards towards the outer stratosphere, as revenue from record oil prices pushed up domestic demand, and the resulting construction and consumption boom drove up wages far beyond normal "productivity-gain" rates of increase (remember, there are not THAT many people in the country, and much of the population is rural and unskilled in relation to the needs of a modern technological and services economy). In fact inflation hit year-on-year rates of increase approaching 20% in the autumn of last year (see chart below), although it had dropped by to an annual 18.2% by September.




So, as well as containing the property bust, the Kazakh authorities have also had to conduct an inflation fight (more details below). So far from lowering rates like the US Federal Reserve has been able to do, Karakhstan's central bank was forced to raise the key interest rate to 11 percent in December 2007, at a time when annual inflation was riding at almost 19 percent, the highest for the country in over eight years. The refinancing rate was then maintained at the 11% level until it was finally lowered to 10.5% at the last central bank meeting in July.



Not Just Energy - Vast Resource Potential

The fact that Kazakhstan's industrial output growth has lost a lot of momentum in 2008 as the slowdown in the building industry provoked a slump in cement and other materials production should not take our minds too far away from the fact that the underlying potential in Kazakhstan is enormous. In fact while industrial output growth was reduced to an annual 3.8 percent growth rate in the January-June period, it was at least still growing.

The low point seems to have been hit back in January, when cement production which, not surprisingly, was among the hardest hit sectors, was down 26 percent year on year, the sharpest January fall in five years, as growth in the construction industry stalled, brought to a halt by the fact that the Kazakh banks, who had been struggling to borrow from abroad following the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market, virtually stopped lending to homebuyers and builders.

Copper and rolled-iron output also declined an annual 13 percent in January while output from oil refineries and manufacturing industry decreased an annual 2.9 percent as the problems rolled in. Thus there is evidence of a very sharp shock initially hitting the local economy. On the other hand, since the country is resource rich and the given that first half of 2008 saw a very significant global commodities boom, there were other economic sectors to fall back on, and mining production was up 6 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, bolstered by an increase in natural gas and coal output, which climbed 15 percent and 11 percent respectively. At the same time crude oil production went up by an annual 5.4 percent.

Apart from oil and gas Kazakhstan has a huge array of potential resource reserves just waiting to be tapped. Among these there is copper. London-listed Kazakhmys accounts for the bulk of Kazakh copper output - and this was down 17.5 percent year-on-year in January-April. Industrial output in Karaganda region, home to Kazakhmys and Arcelor Mittal mines and smelters, declined 5.5 percent year-on-year in January-April.

Kazakhmys reported that their first-quarter output fell 9.9 percent on "severe winter weather'' and repairs at its Balkhash smelter. Production of finished copper plates, or cathodes, from the company's ore fell to 75,500 metric tons, from 83,800 tons a year earlier. These drops in output are, of course not entirely associated with the credit crunch, but they do give an idea of the challenging and volatile environment in which the mining and extraction industries work in Kazakhstan. Realistically speaking it seems quite likely that output in these sectors will return to more normal levels during the second-half of 2008, having alreadt rebounding significantly from the low point reached in the first-quarter.

On the other hand industrial output in capital Astana and commercial hub Almaty, where most construction activities are based, was down 13.2 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively, in January-April, and this activity may well take much longer to recover.

Kazakhstan has also had to cut its 2008 oil production forecast to 67.6 million tonnes (1.35 million barrels per day) from a previous estimate of 70 million tonnes citing maintenance works and transport bottlenecks. The country is able to produce a lot of oil, but it does have a large problem getting that oil to the places where people want it. Three major pipeline routes - the Atyrau-Samara and Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) links to Russia, and the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline to China - carry Kazakh crude off towards its end destinations, but none of these are proving sufficient to the demands on them.

"It is impossible to transport crude out of Kazakhstan without some difficulties," Senior Associate Klara Nurgaziyeva from law firm Dewey & LeBoeuf told an oil and gas conference last week in the Kazakh financial capital Almaty.

In a smoke-filled bar in the Kazakh financial capital Almaty, the laughter of Scottish ex-pats is loud and boisterous. More than three thousand miles (5,491 km) separate the Scottish Highlands and the Central Asian steppe, but a mutual interest in oil and gas has created a surprising alliance. Residents estimate that around 400 Scots live in ex-Soviet Kazakhstan, a resource-rich country roughly the size of western Europe.

Most come from Aberdeen, Britain's northeastern oil hub, and they bring with them their technical expertise."We're going to try attract Kazakhs to Aberdeen over the next few years and look at initiatives, and create further investment in Scotland from Kazakhstan," Lord Provost Peter Stephen of the Aberdeen City Council told an energy conference last week in Almaty. He said over 100 companies from in and around Aberdeen are active in Kazakhstan, and the Scottish oil town even has a Kazakh consulate to serve the hundreds of Kazakhs who go to Scotland to train up for the oil business. The Kazakh-British technical university, set up by a group of Scottish universities seven years ago, occupies a grandiose columned building in the centre of leafy Almaty, which housed parliament before the capital was moved to Astana.

Prices for residential property soared 30.2 percent in 2007, reaching a record average mid-year high of 161,300 tenge ($1,338) per square meter, up from 123,900 tenge in 2006, according to the Astana-based state statistics agency. In the financial capital, Almaty, the average price was 345,200 tenge.

The drop in prices from these peaks and the sudden drying up of credit has caused numerous problems for would.be buyers, and Bank TuranAlem, Kazakhstan's second-biggest bank by assets, received $81.2 million last December from the state emergency investment program simply to finance the completion of unfinished construction projects.

The most recent government bailout of the construction sector was announced during the summer - just two weeks before the celebrations of Nazarbayev's 68th birthday and the 10th anniversary of the founding of the new capital Astana on July 6 - following the announcement by a group representing people who had purchased apartments in the unfinished buildings that they were planning a protest march to be held in Astana bang in the middle of the official festivities.

The Industry and Trade Ministry have said that there were 939 residential buildings, with 45,130 apartments pre-paid by homebuyers, under construction as of last January. Minister Edil Mamytbekov said in July that the cases of 4,558 homebuyers in 18 buildings "remain problematic'' because of conduct for which the builders in question had been "charged with crimes.'' The Kazakh Prosecutor General's Office said 123 construction companies that received 104 billion tenge ($865 million) in pre-payments from homebuyers were behind schedule or haven't even begun work on new apartment buildings.

Assets of "careless construction companies,'' including buildings and vehicles, have been seized to compensate lost investments of homebuyers and the government, according to the Prosecutor General's Office. Criminal investigations have been opened into eight companies. A total of 285 companies are building 407 residential projects in Kazakhstan and have received 231 billion tenge in pre-payments from more than 50,000 individuals and companies, prosecutors said. Of 200 ``problem'' projects delayed by at least six months, 110 are located in the capital Astana and 42 in Almaty.

The July rumpus was provoked by the fact that at the start of the summer the Kazakh government had spent only 51 billion tenge to complete stalled residential projects, a fraction of the bailouts promised by Prime Minister Karim Masimov in the autumn of 2007, according to data made public by the Ministry of Industry and Trade on June 23. The government had said on Nov. 14 2007 that it would spend $1 billion by the end of 2007 and another $3 billion in 2008 to "provide economic stability and growth'' by supporting the real estate market and small and medium-sized businesses. Following publication of this data, and some international press coverage, Masimov said that his original emergency investment program was in the process of being expanded, and his government announced plans to spend 17.2 billion tenge to complete residential projects in Astana.

President Nursultan Nazarbayev instructed the state to step in and finish projects, ``which have no source of financing,'' to ``help to reduce social tension,'' according to Edil Mamytbekov, a deputy minister of industry and trade, on June 20. President Nursultan Nazarbayev also said it was necessary to take ``tough measures against careless builders". As a result the Almaty mayors office announced on July 26 that another 46.4 billion tenge had been allocated to support residential projects in Almaty. The state had already invested 22.4 billion tenge and was going to spend the remaining 24 billion tenge by year's end, according to the announcement.

In April, however, the government had announced that the state development holding Kazyna would distribute 59 billion tenge to commercial banks during 2007 to finish 131 buildings in Almaty. Sergei Kuyanov, spokesman for Almaty Mayor Akhmetzhan Yesimov, declined to comment on the discrepancy between the numbers when question by journalists in July.

Whatever the complications of the present situation and the ins-and-outs of putting the construction and banking problems straight, we should not lose sight of the fact that Kazakhstan has, large financial resources which will surely help it weather the current situation. Official foreign currency assets totaled $46 billion in early June, comprising NBK reserves of $21 billion and oil fund (NFRK) assets of $25 billion. Commercial banks also have foreign assets of which about $3.5 billion are thought to be liquid. Total foreign assets broadly match foreign liabilities when the intracompany debt of the oil sector is excluded, while liquid foreign currency assets comfortably cover potential short-term foreign currency drains.


Favourable Demographics But Migrants Needed, And With Them Modern Citizenship Rights


The chart you will find below is known as a “heat chart”. It depicts the ongoing changes in Kazakhstan's age structure. Each dot represents the number of people in any given age group at any given point in time. A dark red dot represents the largest concentration of people, by age, in a particular year while deep blue dots show the lowest concentrations. A single dark red dot is the equivalent of almost 406,000 people while each deep blue dot represents nearly 23,000 people.


In the upper left-hand corner of the chart the bright reds and yellow areas depicts the population boom that started in the mid 1970s and lasted until the late 1990s. The remnants of that boom extend downward from left to right across the chart. The band also narrows as this population segment ages. This is simply a reflection of the reduction in the total numbers in the population bulge cohorts as out-migration has taken its toll.

Many ethnic Germans and Russians, for example, left Kazakhstan during the years following the end of the Cold War. In the lower left-hand side of the chart there is a preponderance of dark blue dots, indicating a relatively small number of people over the age of 60 years. Over time these dark blue dots are replaced by light blues and greens, a pattern reflecting a gradual but steady increase in the number of elderly people.

The strong budget position in Kazakhstan has provided scope for the government to use fiscal policy to support the economy as growth has slowed. We believe that the increase in spending in the recent supplementary budget is appropriate, and that the automatic fiscal stabilizers should be allowed to work, with any revenue shortfalls due to a weakening economy being accommodated in the near future rather than offset with expenditure cuts to meet budget targets. Going forward, the government's recently announced three-year budget plan maps out a transparent path for fiscal policy over the medium-term. We believe, however, that it is important that the government not commit to further large increases in public sector wages and pensions in future years given uncertainties about budget revenues—particularly from the oil sector—and the stage of the macroeconomic cycle in two or three years time.

Kazakhstan has large financial resources to help it weather the current situation, and medium-term economic prospects remain favorable. Official foreign currency assets, comprising central bank (NBK) reserves and oil fund (NFRK) assets, reached $48 billion at end-September, well above the mid-2007 level. The current account balance has strengthened significantly this year, and oil production is set to increase substantially in the years ahead.

As at the time of the Article IV consultation discussions in April, we believe that in the short-term policies should remain focused on managing risks to the outlook and setting the stage for the resumption of strong and sustained growth. Since our last visit, the authorities have continued to skillfully handle the difficulties the economy has faced, and we welcome the policy steps that are being taken in the monetary, fiscal, and supervisory areas to strengthen the resilience of the Kazakhstani economy. Nevertheless, considerable challenges remain, and these have been heightened by the renewed bout of global financial market volatility.

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