Whoever would have thought that some people once called economics the most dismal of sciences? Certainly, as the current crisis goes on and on, those of us who consider ourselves to be economists scarcely are able to find the time to squeeze in a dull moment, even here and there. But even at a broader level, interest in that most dismal of dismal topics - the theory and practice of central banking - seems now to fire up levels of enthusiasm here in Spain that make even the appetising prospect of a forthcoming Real Madrid-Barça football match pale in intensity. Even if it is the case, I have to admit, that the everyday Johnny (or Jill) come lately sitting in the bar still - truth be told - prefers the sports columns of the daily newspapers, or the lacivious details of the latest romantic adventure of one of the rich ...

JP Morgan is upgrading United Parcel (NYSE:UPS) to Overweight from Neutral this morning. They are raising their price target to $70 (prev. $57) Firm notes they believe that UPS is viewed as a defensive transport name with less operating leverage and that this perception has been a major driver of the underperformance in UPS stock versus most other transports in 2009TD. In their view, UPS stock has lagged too much, and the stock does not reflect the boost a turn in the U.S. economy would provide to UPS earnings performance and to the stock. They are upgrading UPS from Neutral to Overweight. Raising rating to Overweight as reward / risk is attractive. Relative to most other transports and many industrial stocks, JP Morgan believes that UPS reflects less anticipation of a turn in the economy, and they ...

div style="text-align: justify;"JP Morgan is upgrading span style="font-weight: bold;"General Electric (NYSE:GE) /spanto Overweight from Neutral and raising target to $17 (prev. $12).br /br /Firm notes the the downside here looks attractive versus others that have run, which, combined with an ongoing discount for sentiment, sets up for an interesting relative risk/reward, in their view. Given the recent run in the most disliked stocks, and how quickly sentiment has turned, they would rather be early, especially for one such as this that has underperformed for such an extended period of time, and for which there has been arguably the most controversy. In short, the firm thinks this is one of the last “non-consensus, a little good news can go a long way” stocks in the group.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Starting point: Negative sentiment and under-performance/span. GE is now among the lowest-rated stocks in our sector (only 30% Buy) with ongoing fear ...

div style="text-align: justify;"Credit Suisse is out downgrading span style="font-weight: bold;"American International Group (NYSE:AIG)/span to Underperform from Neutral while lowering target to $15 (prev. $30).br /br /Firm notes they are lowering their 2009E to -$13.98 ($2.80 for 2H09) and initiating a 2010E at $5.70.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"CSFB's Underperform rating reflects: /span1) Near term monetization of value of businesses suggests little to no value for common equity, 2) book value analysis suggests mid-teens stock, 3) distressed tender of hybrids – a book value and recap opportunity, 4) normalized capital structure yields annual EPS of $1.50 to $2.50, 5) upside-down capital structure with large debt load vs. common equity, 6) ample liquidity, but near term debt maturities may increase reliance on fed line, and 7) use of government funds.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"New CEO Benmosche a positive, but low probability of meaningful common equity value: /spanThe recent rally of some of the ...

One of the more interesting calls today comes from FBR Capital:br /div style="text-align: justify;"br /FBR is raising their tgt on span style="font-weight: bold;"Freeport-McMoRan Copper amp; Gold, Inc. (NYSE:FCX)/span to $87 from $69 and reiterating their Outperform rating on the stock.br /br /According to the firm the higher price target primarily reflects their view that FCX would raise its overall 2010 copper sales guidance by about 12% (or, approximately, a 45% increase in North America) after recent improvement in leading economic indicators for the developed economies, such as the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Furthermore, FBR believes the economics of increased production are also justified at current copper prices and with the strong outlook in 2010. Based on their revised commodity price deck and increased production estimates (2010 only), they also increase their 2009 and 2010 EPS/EBITDA estimates by about 24%/16% and 26.5%/12%. Firm recommends that investors take advantage of market volatilty ...

a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/Sp6ZsLn6SZI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/ZPSzJDWecms/s1600-h/wkd2.JPG"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 296px; height: 400px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/Sp6ZsLn6SZI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/ZPSzJDWecms/s400/wkd2.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5376903989440432530" border="0" //abr /span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"Notablecalls:/span Wet Kitties...they are everywhere! ARGHHHH!div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/29297569-5674114433895239114?l=notablecalls.blogspot.com'//div

div style="text-align: justify;"Goldman Sachs is upgrading span style="font-weight: bold;"Textron (NYSE:TXT)/span to Conviction Buy from Neutral and raising price target to $23 (prev. $16)br /br /All of TXT’s cyclical businesses (Cessna, Industrial, TFC) are at or near trough and likely turning the corner, valuation is compelling, and catalysts lie ahead. The three key drivers of the upgrade are:br /br /1) business jet data likely keeps improving in 2H09/2010,br /br /2) Industrial could surprise to the upside near-term given that 60% of revenue is from Autos, andbr /br /3) continued credit and capital market improvement means more run-off success, potential asset sales, and liquidity enhancements.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Catalyst/spanbr /The following could act as positive catalysts and drive shares higher, 1) TXT’s Analyst Day on Sept. 9, 2) improved Auto production driving upside at Industrial, given that 60% is Auto, 3) business jet data continuing to improve, 4) asset sales or additional ...

a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/Sp1u0Sy6ufI/AAAAAAAAAJ4/1CWFHmSWWLk/s1600-h/wk2.JPG"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 360px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/Sp1u0Sy6ufI/AAAAAAAAAJ4/1CWFHmSWWLk/s400/wk2.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5376575374827895282" border="0" //abr /br /span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-weight: bold;"Notablecalls:/span It works!div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/29297569-4343066728128670770?l=notablecalls.blogspot.com'//div

div style="text-align: justify;"Sanford Bernstein is out downgrading span style="font-weight: bold;"American Intl Group (NYSE:AIG)/span to Underperform from Market Perform and maintaining their $10 tgt.br /br /Firm notes there are no changes to their thinking since their Q2 earnings writeup on August 10. Therefore, the downgrade is strictly a reaction to the big run up in AIG's stock price.br /br /Using their 3-part valuation model, Sanford can examine why they think AIG's current stock price allows very little chance for uncertainty, and fails to corporate considerable downside risk potential.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"− AIG's Q2 end book value per share to holders of common equity, after all Government stakes and support are eliminated, was $21.80./span They are using an estimated year-end book value per share of $14.30 as their starting assumption for other calculations. This amount included an announced charge of $5bn for Q3 as AIG accelerates amortization of its remaining ...

a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/SpwEVQzFNvI/AAAAAAAAAJg/_u_nvvoKIn8/s1600-h/SP_Shanghai.gif"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 219px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/SpwEVQzFNvI/AAAAAAAAAJg/_u_nvvoKIn8/s400/SP_Shanghai.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5376176818506512114" border="0" //abr /span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"Notablecalls:/span Kudos to good people of Aviandiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/29297569-5566452808218942842?l=notablecalls.blogspot.com'//div