Preliminary retail sales reports for the holidays are in. According to SpendingPulse, a unit of MasterCard, total retail sales (excluding autos) declined 8% year-over-year for the period Dec 1 through 24. More troubling was the report issued by ShopperTrak. It reported that customer visits to retailers declined 24% (the largest drop ever) last weekend versus last year. Keep in mind that the weekend before Christmas is usually the busiest shopping time of the year, as shoppers look for last-minute gifts. ShopperTrak also estimated that retails sales for Dec 19-21 fell 5.3%. Our take is that sales trends have deteriorated from November into December. Falling gasoline prices are not enticing consumers to consume more. In light of a weak economy, higher unemployment, and tighter credit markets, consumers are choosing to spend less and save more. Those who are spending money in retail stores are

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Preliminary retail sales reports for the holidays are in. According to SpendingPulse, a unit of MasterCard, total retail sales (excluding autos) declined 8% year-over-year for the period Dec 1 through Dec 24.

More troubling was the report issued by ShopperTrak. It reported that customer visits to retailers declined 24% (the largest drop ever) last weekend versus last year. Keep in mind that the weekend before Christmas is usually the busiest shopping time of the year, as shoppers look for last-minute gifts. ShopperTrak also estimated that retails sales for Dec 19- Dec 21 fell 5.3%.

Our take is that sales trends have deteriorated from November into December. Falling gasoline prices are not enticing consumers to consume more. In light of a weak economy, higher unemployment, and tighter credit markets, consumers are choosing to spend less and save more. Those who are spending money in retail stores are buying heavily discounted items

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This has nothing to do with Asia, but this comment from Saks Q3 conference call really caught my attention. "During the quarter we experienced a greater decline among our high end customers consistent with the performance of the financial markets. This is in contrast to the stronger trends among this group that we had seen earlier in the year... I don’t think any of us anticipated that the high-end consumer was going to fall off as dramatically as they have." "Our consumer [has] seen a major hit on their portfolios and they [are] in a frozen mode, shell shocked relative to how they feel about their portfolio."The conventional wisdom is that the rich keep spending no matter what happens to the economy, but that sure isn't what Saks is seeing. The last bastion of retail strength is now the low-end 'Wal-Mart' trade.

Monday:Economic Empire (-26), Cap U & IP (76.6%, -0.1%)Earnings Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), Ctrip.com (CTRP)Tuesday:Economic PPI & Core (0.2%, -1.5%)Earnings China Med (CMED), Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), ReneSola (SOL), Saks (SKS), Jack In The Box (JBX), La-Z-Boy (LZB)Wednesday:Economic Weekly Crude, Build P’s & Housing (770K, 780K), CPI & Core (0.2%, -0.8%), FOMC MinutesEarnings BJ’s (BJ), LDK Solar (LDK), Ross (ROST), Trina (TSL), Dress Barn (DBRN), Gymboree (GYMB), Hot Topic (HOTT), Intuit (INTU), Limited (LTD), Men’s Wearhouse (MW), PETsMART (PETM), Woodward Governor (WGOV)Thursday:Economic Weekly Claims, Leading Indicators (-0.6%), Philly Fed (-30.0)Earnings Barnes & Noble (BKS), Children’s Place (PLCE), Dick’s (DKS), Gamestop (GME), Pantry (PTRY), Patterson (PDCO), Suntech Power (STP), Yingli Green (YGE), Buckle (BKE), Autodesk (ADSK), Dell (DELL), Gap (GPS), J. Crew (JCG), Salesforce (CRM), Zumiez (ZUMZ)Friday:Economic NAEarnings AnnTaylor (ANN), Canadian Solar ...

This morning, several retailers reported August same-store sales. This is an important report because it provides investors with an idea of how strong or weak the back-to-school shopping season was.

Quick Take: Overall, the back-to-school season was weak. Below is a sample of 22 retailers that reported same-store sales and only 8 of those companies reported a positive number. And despite ankle-high expectations, half of those companies reporting same-store sales missed those low expectations.

The trade down trend is still working with positive comps from Wal-Mart (WMT), Costco (COST), BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ), and TJX Companies (TJX). Department stores in the mid-to-high end continue to struggle. Specialty retailers were all over the map, with Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) down 11% while Buckle (BKL) was up 22% and Aeropostale (ARO) was up 13%.

Closing thought: Retail stocks have caught a bid over the last several weeks,

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Earnings started positively this week after the biggest mining group BHP Billiton posted today record earnings and increased dividend. Another interesting earnings this week I will be watching are Hewlett Packard and Home Depot.Monday:Economic NAEarnings BHP Billiton (BHP), Lowe’s (LOW), Trina Solar (TSL)Tuesday:Economic Housing Starts & Bldg P’s (963K, 949K), PPI & Core (0.6%, 0.2%)Earnings Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), ReneSola (SOL), Saks (SKS), Target (TGT), Analog Devices (ADI), Hewlett (HPQ), Open Text (OTEX), DryShips (DRYS)Wednesday:Economic Weekly CrudeEarnings BJ’s (BJ), Ross Stores (ROST), Suntech (STP), Citi Trends (CTRN), Gymboree (GYMB), Limited (LTD), JD Uniphase (JDSU), Salesforce (CRM)Thursday:Economic Weekly Claims, Leading Indicators (-0.2%), Philly Fed (-14.1)Earnings Barnes & Noble (BKS), Burger King (BKC), Children’s Place (PLCE), Dick’s Sport (DKS), Gamestop (GME), Heinz (HNZ), Hormel (HRL), Patterson (PDCO), Toro (TTC), Aeropostale (ARO), Blue Coat (BCSI), Intuit ...