by Edward Hugh: Barcelona"The Kazakh government is ready to step in,'' Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Karim Masimov said this morning in a telephone interview with Bloomberg "The Kazakh banking system with the support of the government and central bank will fulfill all obligations to international investors.....We have our own specific plan to survive without any external support....I don't think we need support from the International Monetary Fund or overseas.'' Well that is good news, so at least we know that one of the CIS and CEE economies won't be looking to the IMF for bail-out support in this crisis which is presently growing by the day. So Kazakstan, that country which is reputedly host to reserves of approximately 95% of the elements in the periodic table, with a population of around 15 million housed on a surface area greater than the whole of Western Europe, is going to be able to look after itself. But hang on a minute, just where is Kazakhstan, and just what have they been getting up to over there, and why the hell should I take Karim Masimov's word for it, when just about all the other Iceland Look-alike show contestants seem to be saying the same? After all, didn't those extermely bright and able young people over at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto say in a report only last week that, along with Latvia, the country's $100 billion oil-led economy is among the most vulnerable to the present global credit crisis and the skid-row economic trajectories that go with it simply because of its excessive reliance on short-term foreign borrowing. And isn't it the case that the cost of protecting Kazakhstan government debt against default has more than doubled this month - to over 1,000 basis points (or 10%), the level for borrowers that investors term ``distressed,'' according to CMA Datavision credit-default swap prices. Only Ukraine, which as we know is already seeking IMF support, is classified as being a bigger risk among European emerging-market governments. Surely all those highly dedicated, bright, and extremely able young people who are doing all that trading know what they are about, don't they?

Fresh off one of the most-volatile months ever for U.S. stocks, investors can’t be happy that they’re facing another October - the poster child for U.S. stock market crashes. Thanks to the stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987, October has a reputation for being a horrible month for stocks. But once you dig into the data, you find that October’s reputation as the "jinx month" might just be undeserved.

I am not sure why so many of you are bullish and for sure that you are “missing out” on some of the new gains of a fresh new bull market but last time I checked we have amazing charts in good strong bull markets. We don’t normally see the amount of distribution that litters the charting landscape right now. Normally, many charts, if you have hit a bottom, will be rallying on strong volume, with green to max green BOP, and with nice tight price action signaling that the weak flippers have left the stock market.

I know some of you do not like to hear this but China has been the leading index for years now. There GDP trumps our GDP and they are the industrial powerhouse now. The fact their index has fallen so much since the November top should be all the news. But I don’t here

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There is certainly a lot of commotion at the moment not least surrounding the rescue plan to shore up the two biggest US mortgage lenders Fannie and Freddie Mae, but also, and if we stay in the US we had the collapse of IndyMac, in Spain Martina-Fadesa is in the ropes and in Denmark we have Roskilde Bank. Especially, the last event prompted me into action as I decided to have a closer look at the Danish economy and where it might be heading. In many ways Denmark is similar to other credit crunch struck economies not least in the context of experiencing a severe unravelling of a housing boom. As we saw last week this is now beginning to have collateral damage. Yet, Denmark is also a bit different not least because the economy is going into this crisis with a positive balance both on the ...

by Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenStagflation, credit crunch, bank bails-outs, and housing market busts are all concepts that are unfortunately now becoming all too familiar to the current Danish economic discourse and indeed even to the Danish public at large as they read their morning paper over breakfast, or listen to the radio on their way to work. And not of course in their United States version, but rather in their homegrown variant. But just how serious is the construction and banking problem in Denmark?A quick initial glance at the short term data definitely suggests that a serious batch of storm clouds may well be gathering above the economy. Not only did Denmark claim the dubious honor of being the first economy in Europe to exhibit a technical recession but it was also recently handed its very own banking crisis à la Bear Stearns and ...

Last Sunday this blog broached the possibility of some sort of intra-meeting move by the Fed. And then on Monday, Paul Kasriel at Northern Trust told me a cut in the discount rate would make life easier for the Fed as opposed to pumping the system via daily injections. Well, the discount cut happened, as we all know.

Say what you will about how the Fed could care less about ‘moral hazard’ and has said “Uncle” after just a month of market melodrama by deciding to follow the typical bailout script of Big Al Greenspan — the more active participation by the Fed to try to plug the leaks in the proverbial dam is something that the bears should be very respectful of in the near term.