Employment Data: What Can You Believe?

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

In the first installment of this series, making sense of the economic data coming at us daily, we dealt with inflation.

Today, we’re looking at the employment numbers.

Some of you might remember, back in June we took a closer look at the way we calculate unemployment today – and the vagaries of our current system are coming home to roost now.

After all, we started August by losing jobs… but the unemployment rate somehow went down.

How can you increase the number of unemployed people, while reducing the number of unemployed?

Simple. You stop counting them. As noted in our earlier article, the official unemployment numbers don’t count a number of out-of-work people – including those who have been unemployed so long, their benefits

Healthcare Truths

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

If there’s one subject that has a hysterical debate surrounding it, it’s healthcare.

The right is accusing the left of euthanizing little old ladies. The left is accusing the right of coldly killing the poor. And somehow poor Stephen Hawking would be dead if left to the evils of Britain’s National Health Service – which just happens to be the health service that has kept Hawking alive all these years (yes, he’s a Brit).

Nothing like a good political debate to bring out the hyperbole in people. And, like anyone else, I can enjoy a hysterical joust as much as the next guy – red-faced with the rightness of my position (whatever that position happens to be).

But, that’s got nothing to do with investing. Politics is emotion, with reason used to fill in

Housing Numbers: The Truth Behind It All

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

Continuing our series looking at the truth behind current economic data, today we turn to housing numbers.

Housing has been in the news lately, with a few “green shoots” of news. Most recently, home prices ticked upward last month, even though they’re down compared with a year ago. Many analysts are reading this as a sign that the worst is behind us, and we could be in for a quick recovery.

Don’t be so sure.

We Won’t Foreclose… For Now

First, there’s one important fact that most analysts have forgotten, or at least aren’t revealing.

That is, the six largest lenders – businesses like Citibank, Bank of America, etc – and Fannie and Freddie got together earlier this year and declared a three-month moratorium on foreclosures.

They all agreed,

Why Financial Earnings Leaders Means Bad Times Ahead

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

The financial sector has led the market rally the last few days – and, as a student of history, that should give you pause.

We’ll get into that in a moment, but first… why are financials making such a solid run?

Short answer: Surprisingly good earnings. So good, in fact, that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) just set a record for their best quarter ever – so good that they can afford to set aside over $11 billion for compensation alone.

Both Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) also beat estimates, pulling in billions last quarter, less than a year after getting bailed out with TARP funds.

But don’t let that fool you. Goldman Sachs, for one,

Japan’s Darkest Days Lay Ahead

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

Bet against Japan.

It pains me to say it. I lived in Japan for five years – great years. I love the country, I love the people, I love the cherry blossoms in spring and the festivals in the streets and the poetic dewdrop in my window each morning.

But right now, I hate Japan’s economy. Here’s why:

1. It’s an exporting country, and nobody’s buying.

The American savings rate has gone from 0 to around 5%, and it’s still rising. Remember, this is with U.S. unemployment hovering just under 10%, officially. And, with furloughs and cost-cutting measures, the average work-week for the “fully employed” has fallen to 33 hours – the lowest number on record. So a 5% savings rate of a markedly smaller income pie, equals the collapse of disposable income spending.

That

Taiwan and China: Rivals, and now, Partners

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

With MJ’s passing, some rather astonishing news flew under the collective radar last week.

Taiwan has opened its economic borders to investment from China.

That’s a really big deal.

If America dropped the Cuban Embargo… that would be about 1/100 as momentous. It’s more like an apolitical (for now) eastern version of the Berlin Wall coming down.

Taiwan’s part in the play that is the Asian theatre is about to get much more complex.

And for investors, the opportunities are only beginning. Here’s a little background on why Taiwan will make a good trade partner for China, and why foreign investors need not worry.

Taiwan’s History of Fighting and Independence

A little history: In 1949, Chiang Kai Shek – the insurgent leader of China during the Japanese occupation –

Unemployment Numbers – Fake, or Really, Really Fake?

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

The latest unemployment numbers just came out, and they weren’t too good. Job losses, which had been slowing down for over a month, increased in speed again. The official unemployment rate, standing at 9.4%, looks set to increase when next released in early July.

But 9.4%, while bad, isn’t that bad, right?

After all, the Great Depression famously saw 25% unemployment at its height in 1932 and 1933. So this recession is bad, but nowhere near a depression… correct?

Sadly no.

You see, during the early years of the Clinton Administration, the way we measure unemployment changed. Discouraged workers – those waiting out the bad times – and the chronically unemployed – those who haven’t held a job in the past year – were

Germany, Europe, and America: Central Banks Growing Apart

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

Two weeks ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel tried to raise a stink. She laid into the central banks of Britain, the European Union, and the United States.

Without explicitly saying so, Merkel hinted that the current policies of central banks look more like those of the Weimar Republic and less like FDR’s New Deal.

And while she may have succeeded in lifting an eyebrow or two on Fox Business News, for the most part, her outburst was ignored.

That’s a mistake.

Germany rarely speaks out about the policies of central banks – especially ones outside her borders – so to do so now suggests there are strong beliefs behind Merkel’s words. And where there are strong beliefs, policy follows.

In other words, Merkel’s dissent is a leading

Canadian Banking: Sober, Boring, and Successful

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

It wasn’t so long ago Canada’s banking system was considered behind the times. Almost cute, an antiquarian relic, it banked in the old ways… and it was holding Canada back.

After all, while real estate throughout the world was doubling every few years, Canadian homes were moving up relatively modestly.

While risk in the rest of the world had been eliminated through complicated instruments that everyone trusted “someone else” understood, Canada was still using the traditional loan-and-hold mortgage model…

I’m sure you see where this is going.

Canada’s banks weren’t caught up in one of the biggest global bubbles of the last few decades, and they aren’t participating in the fallout either. It’s why investors around the world are looking at Canada, and three of its banks that

Investing in Thailand: Revolutionizing Global ETF Investments

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

Buy when there’s blood in the streets, indeed.

Every investor knows the phrase, but very few have the required fortitude to actually put it in practice. When there’s blood on the streets, most investors bail and head for cover as fast as they can.

But the sentiment goes double when the blood is literal – like we’ve recently seen in one Southeast Asian country, formerly thought of as one of the most stable in the region… but now, somewhat unfairly, considered just as bad as the rest.

I’m talking about Thailand – a country no self-respecting investor would go near with a ten-foot pole.

Right?

After all, they just had a civil war… or something… right?

Well, not exactly.

The Bloody Non-Revolution

It’s true, the literal blood fell in Thailand