I want to talk about the challenge of exponential growth in a finite world. This is a concept that while on its surface seems easy to get, most people don’t fully grasp it. Any growth rate that is positive will lead to a doubling in size eventually -- the higher the growth rate, the quicker the doubling. A quick "back of the envelope" method of figuring it out is known as the rule of 70. If you divide a growth rate into 70, it will roughly give you the time for something to double. Thus if something is growing at 2% a year, then it will double in about 35 years, at 5% only 14 years, etc. If you want to be more precise, you can always use your Y^x button on your calculator, but the rule of 70 will do for this discussion. Clearly, exponential growth ...

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A well-known Russian journalist, head of the Center for Journalism in Extreme Situations  Oleg Panfilov in early November moved for permanent residency from Moscow to Tbilisi. In a conversation with journalists he explained that his decision was based on the fact that in Russia unknowns were constantly threatening him through the internet with physical lynching.

This news appeared on the internet on the 9th of November. To me this «news» was known two months ago: Oleg himself had told me about his desire to forsake Russia. In so doing no arguments in the form of threats did he name. I think

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This week's lunch with the FT features Peter Aspden sitting down for some sushi and a harmless bit of obsequiousness with Evgeny Lebedev, the son of Alexander Lebedev.  The conversation has some interesting points ... such as his potshots at newly wealthy Russians who throw their money at expensive art.  Evgeny strikes me as more intelligent and considerate than your average playboy - but then at other times he seems a bit out of touch.

"I feel very affiliated with Russia, what I see as its soul. Even with its landscape, that vastness that you can't grasp. Our history is violent and bloody: revolutions, war, turmoil. Even Peter the Great and Catherine the Great, they saw themselves as reformers but, on the

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I like Michele Berdy's columns in the Moscow Times.  Who knows how many times inaccurate translations have skewed our understanding of Russia in the mass media:

Надувать щёки is not, as the otherwise brilliant Kremlin translators would have it, "to be full of hot air." Sure, someone with a swelled head might also run off at the mouth without saying anything of value -- which is what "to be full of hot air" means. But Medvedev wasn't calling on officials to cut the crap. He was telling them to stop playing the big shot.

This is clear in the sentence that follows: Мы заинтересованы в притоке в страну капиталов, новых технологий и передовых идей (We want to see capital, new technologies and cutting-edge ideas coming into the country). The West, he asserted, is interested in the same thing: Знаем, что и наши партнёры рассчитывают на сближение с Россией для реализации

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Dell Inc. (DELL) reported third quarter 2010 EPS of 23 cents, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 27 cents. Revenue Revenue for the quarter was $10.75 billion, down 17.0% from $12.97 billion reported in the year-ago quarter and up 1.0% from $10.62 billion reported in the previous quarter. The company’s third quarter reported revenue was adversely affected by the timing of the Windows 7 launch and due to backlog buildup in the company’s SMB and consumer businesses. Revenue by Segment Large Enterprise posted revenue of $3.4 billion, an increase of 4.0% sequentially and decline of 23.0% year-over-year. In the last quarter, the company expended its networking partnership with Brocade and Juniper, and introduced products like PowerEdge 11g servers and expanded PowerVault storage systems. Public revenue for the quarter was $3.7 billion, down 3.0% on sequentially and 7.0% from the year-ago quarter. Shipments were ...

Stephen Fidler at the Wall Street Journal has an interesting piece running today about the annual winter pipeline politics (though the sensible agreement yesterday in Yalta may diminish a lot of fears).  There are some interesting facts and numbers in the piece - for example the estimate that Gazprom's contract prices are sitting around $10 per million BTU, while LNG can be had on the spot market for $4 per million BTU.  In a refreshing change of pace, we see Fidler point more of the blame at the national champions E.ON and ENI if by chance Eastern European households go cold this winter.  From a business perspective, a supply cut-off would really hurt Gazprom and benefit the state-corporate avarice of Western Europe (who have the ability to import from alternative sources).Either way, things are looking bad for everybody ...

Reports have emerged following yesterday's meeting between 'comfortable' duo Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Yulia Tymoshenko.  Bloomberg says Putin's announcement that Ukraine would not be penalized for consuming less gas than was contracted was warmly received by Tymoshenko, who pledged that payments would be made on time.  'It would be very good to meet the New Year without calamities,' Putin said, guaranteeing stable supplies (click here for some transit figures).  This exchange was overshadowed by Medvedev's advisor in Moscow, who reportedly complained about 'political blackmail' in light of Tymoshenko's decision to increase transit fees earlier this week. The Guardian points out that TNK-BP's new chief executive, the choice of its oligarch board, is 'inexperienced', but BP insists that it was not 'steamrollered' into accepting him.  Russia's stepped-up pledge for emissions reductions is drawing positive reports.  ...

They were shooting...Yesterday. In the forest. In Vladimir Oblast. A shot thundered practically right over my head. Luckily for me and for the duck flushed from the mirror-like marsh, the hunter missed.

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By the way, they were shooting for certain, not only yesterday and not only in Vladimir Oblast - the hunting season continues in Russia. The period of killing feathered creatures in the Moscow region began back on 25 July and will continue through 30 November. Then, in November, the season will open for beavers, moose, boars...hunting season continues, in essence, year round on the vast spaces of our motherland, which for now is still

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Below is the text of a letter from the law firm Firestone Duncan to clients and staff regarding the death of Sergei Magnitsky (I apologize for the conflicting spellings of his name).

November 18, 2009

Dear clients, partners and friends,

On the night of November 17, 2009 we lost our colleague and friend Sergey Magnitskey. Sergey was 37.

Sergey died in police custody where he had been held almost a year without trial or bail. He was held by a group of police officers who he had testified against; a group of officers who we believe committed a crime against a client and the Russian State.

Sergey died because he would not cooperate with criminals. He was repeatedly told that if he gave false testimony against his client he would be released and he refused. As time went

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The writer Victor Erofeyev has published an opinion article in the New York Times commenting about what motivations Russians to embrace a familiar if ugly past instead of imagining a reformed future.  His expression of support here echoes what he wrote in Feb. 2008, calling Medvedev Russia's "last hope."

In any case, I -- for all my skepticism about any Kremlin initiative -- declare my support for Mr. Medvedev, because, ladies and gentlemen, we have hit bottom. It all began with the Kremlin's declaration, not long before the financial crisis, that Russia is rising from its knees. But a large body needs help to get up. In this case, the chosen instrument of assistance was imperial crutches. But where were they to be found?

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