Small-Cap Investing: How to Play The Emerging Small-Cap Rally

by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist Associate Investment Director, The Oxford Club Wednesday, January 7, 2009: Issue #911

Forget the grim news that Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is slashing costs and cutting 13% of its workforce. We all know times are tough. But the market’s a forward-looking beast. And right now, it’s doing exactly what I predicted on November 19. It’s favoring small caps over large caps.

In December the little guys put up big numbers - a 5.8% gain versus a mere 1.1% uptick for the large guys, based on the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indexes.

Before I get to my favorite ways to screen and play this emerging small-cap rally, let me first address my critics.

My last column failed to convince some of you. Others thought I simply skimped on the proof. Or more specifically, that I failed to tell you why

...

President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team is reportedly putting the finishing touches on an economic recovery plan that could run from $675 billion to $1 trillion, though many experts believe the program will most like range between $700 billion and $800 billion.

Briefings for top congressional Democrats were to start either over the weekend or today (Monday), a senior transition-team official told The Associated Press late last week. President-elect Obama is slated to meet today with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., in a Democratic strategy session that is likely to focus on the economic recovery package.

It’s time to look forward, not back. The 111th Congress meets tomorrow (Tuesday), and a comprehensive economic stimulus package is at the top of its agenda.  Hopefully, the lawmakers can put partisan bickering aside (fat chance) and have a bill in place for President-elect Barack

...

In the darkest hours of the market, we need to be looking for the next bull. Louis Basenese says the lessons from history show that traditionally riskier small-cap stocks could actually be the smartest bet right now.

Yesterday we got confirmation that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter. And most economists expect the downturn to accelerate, with GDP checking in as low as negative 6% in the fourth quarter. Here’s why I’m not concerned…

A more important trend is emerging. Remember, on November 19 I told you to consider going big, by going small with small caps. Well, the markets didn’t leave much time for preparation.

In that short span, small caps jumped 6.38%, almost tripling the returns of large caps, based on the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes. Of course, it’s too early to declare a full-blown rally. But we shouldn’t be ignorant to the subtle

...

Instead of unloading small-cap and value stocks, portfolio manager is sticking to his guns. But he's shifting into TIPS and away from Treasuries.

 

Tim Courtney admits that financial markets do tend to break down from time to time.

A prime example, says the Oklahoma City, Okla.-based portfolio manager, is what's going on today in markets across the globe.

"But markets have proven to be efficient enough over the longer-term to dissuade us from trying to time a recovery or squeeze any possible excess losses by using individual stocks," said the chief investment officer for Burns Advisory Group, which is headquartered in Oklahoma but has offices in California and Connecticut as well.

Courtney used to work with large institutional investors at Fidelity Investments on developing retirement plans and asset allocation requirements. He joined John Burns, who started the business and serves as its chief executive, in 1997.

These days, Courtney is

...

Now I have been critical of Matt Hougan from time to time, but NEVER has he spouted such pure nonsense as he did yesterday.

The truth is that generally Matt and I—mostly—agree, and the arguments we do have are often on the margins. But not today. I honestly believe that Matt Hougan is as crazy as a lark with all his shrieking about commodities being different, the space not working for indexing, etc.

It's a bunch of nonsense. POPPYCOCK.

He spends the first half of his blog talking about index weightings. Like that has ANYTHING to do with commodities in particularly. Matt, I've got a surprise for you: The NASDAQ 100 is overweight Technology, the Dow had a leaning toward blue chips, the S&P 600 performs in a wildly different manner than the Russell 2000. Indexes VARY in their weightings. If you don't know that, you are not a

...

Small-Cap Stocks: The Most Important Trend Headed into 2009

by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist, Investment U Associate Investment Director, The Oxford Club Wednesday, December 23, 2008: Issue #906

Yesterday we got confirmation that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter. And most economists expect the downturn to accelerate, with GDP checking in as low as negative 6% in the fourth quarter. Here’s why I’m not concerned…

A more important trend is emerging. Remember, on November 19 I told you to consider going big, by going small with small caps. Well, the markets didn’t leave much time for preparation.

In that short span, small caps jumped 6.38%, almost tripling the returns of large caps, based on the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes. Of course, it’s too early to declare a full-blown rally. But we shouldn’t be ignorant to the subtle shifts in market leadership.

Remember, the market’s a forward-looking beast. And

...

The US Federal Reserve yesterday pulled out all the stops in a frantic effort to save the US economy from collapse and stem the deflationary forces. The Fed funds rate was slashed from 1% to a target range between 0 and 0.25% – the lowest the central bank’s key rate has been since records began in 1954.

In reality, the Fed is simply aligning its target rate with the effective rate and thereby pushing monetary policy into an era of Zirp, i.e. a zero-interest-rate policy.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) statement said the “outlook for economic activity has weakened further” from its previous meeting in late October, indicating that the “Federal Reserve will employ all available

...

Investors can now trade triple-leveraged ETFs. That means three times the return (or loss) of the underlying index. Rick Pendergraft says stocks could be in line for a major rally in the first half of 2009. If it does, the Large Cap Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSE:BGU) will ensure huge profits for investors willing to “think big”.

This from Investor’s Daily Edge:

What is my top pick for 2009? It is a new Exchange Traded Fund from a group called Direxion Funds. The people at Direxion have taken ETFs to a new level they are offering funds that have triple the leverage of the underlying index.

What does this mean? It means that if you have one of these ETFs and the index goes up one percent in a day, this ETF will go up three percent. If the index

...

After U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers meet today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday), most experts expect a half a percentage point cut in the benchmark Federal Funds Rate – which is already 1.0%.

That doesn’t leave members of the central bank’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) much room to maneuver. Still, the policymakers may have more ammunition in their arsenal and the statement that accompanies the rate decision at the end of the two-day session could shed some insight on the “creative” actions the Fed could consider in addition to rate cuts (For instance, the central bank could extend the new investment firm discount window, offer additional loan guarantees, or utilize any number of other tools).

And the Fed may well have to use those other tools. As Japan’s “Lost Decade” demonstrated, “zero” interest rates won’t necessarily jump-start an economy – especially when interest

...

After U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers meet today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday), most experts expect a half a percentage point cut in the benchmark Federal Funds Rate – which is already 1.0%. That doesn’t leave members of the central bank’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) much room to maneuver. Still, the policymakers may have more ammunition in their arsenal and the statement that accompanies the rate decision at the end of the two-day session could shed some insight on the “creative” actions the Fed could consider in addition to rate cuts (For instance, the central bank could extend the new investment firm discount window, offer additional loan guarantees, or utilize any number of other tools). And the Fed may well have to use those other tools. As Japan’s “Lost Decade” demonstrated, “zero” interest rates won’t necessarily jump-start an ...