This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Interest rates: the phantom menace, November 20, 2009. Well, what I hear is that officials don’t trust the demand for long-term government debt, because they see it as driven by a “carry trade”: financial players borrowing cheap money short-term, and using it to buy long-term bonds. They fear that the whole thing could evaporate if long-term rates start to rise, imposing capital losses on the people doing the carry trade; this could, they believe, drive rates way up, even though this possibility doesn’t seem to be priced in by the market. What’s wrong with this picture?

• Michael Panzner (Financial Armageddon): Economists: wrong again, November 21, 2009. As if they didn’t cause enough

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Reflation trade shifting into reverse? October 27, 2009. Risk assets ranging from stocks to commodities to currencies seem to be faltering after being floated on a sea of liquidity.

• Doug Kass (TheStreet.com):   My “fast money” recap, October 28, 2009. I saw some emerging technical signs of market weakness that could override seasonal strength, including three failed rallies in the past week, a contracting number of new highs on the New York Stock Exchange, a breakdown in the Dow Jones Transportation Average and, generally, stocks have begun to sell off on good and bad news. … asked how vulnerable the market was over the short to intermediate term if I used the quantitative models that

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find enjoyable.

• Lori Montgomery (The Washington Post): Tax pledge is a target as deficits, debt grow, August 29, 2009. During last year’s campaign, President Obama vowed to enact a bold agenda without raising taxes for the middle class, a pledge budget experts viewed with skepticism. Since then, a severe recession, massive deficits and a national debt that is swelling toward a 50-year high have only made his promise harder to keep.

• Peter Goodman (The New York Times): A reluctance to spend may be a legacy of the recession, August 28, 2009. Even as evidence mounts that the Great Recession has finally released its chokehold on the American economy, experts worry that the recovery may be weak, stymied by consumers’

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This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Richard Thaler (Financial Times): Markets can be wrong and the price is not always right, August 4, 2009. The “efficient market hypothesis” has been a fact of life for economists. Among other things, it says that asset prices will fully reflect available information; and that it is hard for any investor to beat the market after taking risk into account. Has the last year changed how it is viewed.

• Eric Uhlfelder (Advisor Perspectives): Paul Krugman on prospects of recovery, August 4, 2009.

• Economist.com: A concrete problem, July 30, 2009. Banks face another round of property-related bad debts: this time it will be flashy offices, not rundown homes.

• Frank Hornig,

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From Robert Skidelsky in the Financial Times: Despite the professionalism of the rescue mounted by the finance ministry and central bank – and the budgetary cushion provided by the stabilisation fund, brainchild of Andrei Illarionov, Mr Putin’s discarded economic adviser – Russia carries a heavy burden of political risk. This is the real economic legacy of the Putin years. Mr Putin does not understand the need for a degree of consistency between economic and foreign policy: or rather the reconciliation he has sought has been based on Russia’s energy windfall. If this has now ended, as seems likely, the key assumption of his politics – that Russia can use its energy power to boost its world power without paying much attention to the sensitivities of anyone but the Russian electorate – has been destroyed. Russia needs to scale down its geopolitical ambition to its real weight – that of an emerging ...