Rob Parenteau, currency and credit markets expert, and editor of The Richebacher letter, analyzes the current state of the economy, as represented by retail sales. Can retail really drive the recovery?

Rob Parenteau (The Daily Reckoning): The U.S. consumer is bound to play only a lackluster role in this recovery. But this has not mattered to buyers of consumer discretionary stocks who are intent on using the typical business cycle recovery playbook in a recovery that is anything but typical.

The year-over-year growth rate of October retail sales ex-gas is nearly flat from a year ago, while the overall retail sales momentum is still just shy of closing that gap. With comparisons so easy against a year ago, when the global economy was in free fall, this is not a terribly inspiring result. Excluding autos, the sequential gain in October came up short of expectations, with only a 0.2%

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Just one bit of meaningful economic data so far this week: The American service sector grew in September for the first time in a year. The Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index scored 50.9 last month, just 9/10ths of a point above the growth/contraction tipping point. That certainly isn’t a booming service sector, but having contracted for the last 11 months… we’ll take it.

“The Chicago Fed’s national activity index,” notes our macro adviser and fellow data dork Rob Parenteau, “continues to point to a second-half 2009 real GDP recovery. With the September release, investors focused on the index — a composite of more than 80 monthly indicators that provides a reasonably good proxy for real GDP momentum — slipping to -0.9 from -0.46 the month before. We have never seen this index climb consistently straight up after a recession month after month, and this decline is well within the range

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As the summer draws to a close, the unemployment rate has stepped up 0.3%, to 9.7%, a level last seen coming out of the horrendous double-dip recession of 1980-2. Yes, private payrolls shed less than 200,000 jobs in August, which is a vast improvement over the nearly 750,000 jobs shed in the opening month of the year. But as summer draws to a close, look around and realize nearly one in 10 of your neighbors is chewing on their fingernails and trying to hustle up a new gig. Perhaps we should rename the recent holiday Unlabor Day, in honor of those sweating out one of the toughest job markets of the post-World War II period.

From a mainstream economic perspective, it should be renamed Leisure Day, as unemployment is interpreted as an individual choice of leisure over paid labor effort. Of course, only a tenured professor could be expected

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Is the recession technically over? The strongest argument for recovery we’ve seen yet… Rob Parenteau shares his new macro economic forecast… “Told you so!” writes Byron King — “breaking news” he and The 5 scooped in March 2008… Plus, Chris Mayer’s latest contrarian play…

Our forecast today: The government and mainstream media will soon be calling the end of the recession. Leading this feeble cause is the latest ISM manufacturing index, probably the most powerful argument for recovery we’ve seen yet:

This morning, the ISM said its gauge of manufacturing activity had risen to 52.9 in August – out of contraction for the first time since the recession began and the highest score since June 2007. Of course, things are a bit different now, but over the last 60 years, when the manufacturing sector returns to growth, the recession has already ended. That prospect

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CIT dodges bullet, others report super-sized earnings… are banks really on the mend? Greg Guenther with a safe way to play the volatile biotech sector… California finally plugs its budget gap… with taxes, debt and accounting fraud… Chris Mayer on a rising dilemma for miners of the world… Plus, even the dead can’t dodge the recession… backyard burials booming…

You can rest easy today… the financial crisis is over.

CIT Group, the new epicenter of systemic financial risk, got thrown a lifeline this week from its bondholders. As we reported Friday, the company needed $3 billion — fast — in order to stay afloat. It was rightfully denied a government bailout, but was able to strike a last-minute deal with holders of its debt. Of course, the market rejoiced… the S&P 500 rose 1.1% yesterday largely on the news. But again, we’re calling the market’s

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Madrid, Spain

Two important headlines this morning, both of them fraudulent:

“Chinese economy bounces back,” says one headline in theInternational Herald Tribune.

“JPMorgan profit soars despite downturn,” says another.

The average reader or TV viewer will go no further. “Ah,” he says to himself, “good news; the worst is over. China is a green shoot as big as the Amazon. And JPMorgan is a leader in the financial sector. If the financial sector is doing well, the whole world economy must be doing well.”

But here at The Daily Reckoning, we can’t help ourselves. If we see a silver lining, we look for the cloud. We see garbage…we look for the rat…

We begin with the JPMorgan profit announcement, because it is the most intriguing. Let us set the stage:

In the last half century, credit has expanded faster even than dress sizes. Naturally, this has made the business of hawking credit

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We are now in June 1930, according to trader/author Ron Coby, a friend and neighbor of one of our favorite underground investors Dan Ferris. (Ferris is a member of the Stansberry & Associates Investment Research team and editor of Extreme Value. ) Ron believes stocks are going to plunge – just as they did from June 1930 to July 1932 when the crash that began on October 24 1929 finally bottomed.

This from an email Ron sent Dan on Tuesday after the market closed (hat tip, The S&A Digest ):

It’s over, man. We are now in June 1930… repeat, just like we repeated 1929 in 2008 and repeated the 40 plus percent rally in Nov 1929 to April 1930… Now the real pain begins… The DJIA collapsed 89% over the following 2 years until July 1932 bottom.

We sincerely hope Ron is wrong. But the similarities between the recent sucker’s rally and the Nov

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The stock market seems to be rolling over. Investors read the news. It’s probably becoming clear to them that the economy is not going back to normal any time soon.

Yesterday, the Dow lost another 131 points. Another big day down and it will be in the 7,000-range. Oil sank too – down to $62. The dollar, bonds, and gold stayed about where they were.

Economists are still talking about an “exit strategy.” But in view of what is actually going on in the economy, they’ll probably want to stay on this highway a lot longer. This is the long road to ruin, of course. It may be fatal, but it is not – yet – unpopular. Broadly, what is happening is exactly what should be happening.

The stock market rally is getting old…and may have already peaked out. The consumer is running out of time, money and credit. He has no choice but to

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And it’s one, two, three, What are we fighting for? Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn, Next stop is Vietnam; And it’s five, six, seven, Open up the pearly gates, Well there ain’t no time to wonder why, Whoopee! We’re all gonna die.

– Country Joe & the Fish, “I Feel Like I’m Fixin’ To Die Rag”

Robert McNamara must have been in a hurry too. He never had time to wonder why he was sending 500,000 American boys to fight a war when Lyndon Johnson was “publicly promising in campaign speeches not to ‘go North,’ not to send American boys to fight wars Asian boys ought to fight for themselves,” as an editorial appearing in the June 17, 1971 issue of The Washington Post put it.

Both the International Herald Tribune and the Financial Times describe the former Secretary of Defense as the “architect” of the Vietnam War. This is news to

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Stocks fall again… Rob Parenteau on what it will take to move markets higher… Are U.S. equities turning Japanese? Two charts that might have you thinking so… The ultimate indicator? One d-list data point that’s marked the end of recessions since 1970… President, mainstream media wake up to debt dilemma… our executive sounds off… Plus, a sector still “growing explosively,” despite the recession…

Hmmm… Is this the beginning of the end for the “sucker’s rally”?

Mr. Market’s suffered two rough days in a row. Since Monday, the S&P 500’s down 3.5%. The Dow has fallen two days in a row as well — its worst two-day streak since the March bottom, in fact. Best Buy — of all places — currently offers the best look into the market’s mood. The purveyor of plasma TVs and other adult toys revealed a 15% drop in quarterly profits yesterday. While the

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