Markets kick off 2009 with sizable rally… what’s behind the best New Year’s rally since 2003…  Obama bounce back in effect… Rob Parenteau on whether his $1 trillion plan will actually work… Dan Amoss on the difference between shorting in 2008 and 2009… Bullish factors for gold (and gold stocks) for 2009… The second wave cometh… more troublesome commercial real estate ripples on the horizon.

For the first time in a long time, we can tell you today that the U.S. stock market is up year to date:

The major indexes rang in the new year with a 3% rally on Friday — the best first day of a new year in the last six. And a sharp contrast to 2008, when the Dow had its worst opening day since 1983.

Consumer shows spooky signs of weakness… recession now unavoidable? How’s your 401(k)? Some scary stats on the average retirement savings plan. Haunting mortgage data… 10 million Americans suffer “negative equity”. U.S. finance capitalism dead or dying… Byron King on the new paradigm for global economic power. Eric Fry on investing during the post-crash bounce. Plus, one “surefire” sector during these frightening times.

Boo!

We begin today with a Halloween hypothetical: If you’re a mainstream economist or financial journalist, what’s the scariest possible scenario that could arise from an economic crisis?

Answer: That the ephemeral specter of the American consumer, whose purchases now make up over 70% of economic activity in I.O.U.S.A., would stop spending.

Uh-ho. In the third quarter