Is the recession technically over? The strongest argument for recovery we’ve seen yet… Rob Parenteau shares his new macro economic forecast… “Told you so!” writes Byron King — “breaking news” he and The 5 scooped in March 2008… Plus, Chris Mayer’s latest contrarian play…

Our forecast today: The government and mainstream media will soon be calling the end of the recession. Leading this feeble cause is the latest ISM manufacturing index, probably the most powerful argument for recovery we’ve seen yet:

This morning, the ISM said its gauge of manufacturing activity had risen to 52.9 in August – out of contraction for the first time since the recession began and the highest score since June 2007. Of course, things are a bit different now, but over the last 60 years, when the manufacturing sector returns to growth, the recession has already ended. That prospect

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CIT dodges bullet, others report super-sized earnings… are banks really on the mend? Greg Guenther with a safe way to play the volatile biotech sector… California finally plugs its budget gap… with taxes, debt and accounting fraud… Chris Mayer on a rising dilemma for miners of the world… Plus, even the dead can’t dodge the recession… backyard burials booming…

You can rest easy today… the financial crisis is over.

CIT Group, the new epicenter of systemic financial risk, got thrown a lifeline this week from its bondholders. As we reported Friday, the company needed $3 billion — fast — in order to stay afloat. It was rightfully denied a government bailout, but was able to strike a last-minute deal with holders of its debt. Of course, the market rejoiced… the S&P 500 rose 1.1% yesterday largely on the news. But again, we’re calling the market’s

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Stocks fall again… Rob Parenteau on what it will take to move markets higher… Are U.S. equities turning Japanese? Two charts that might have you thinking so… The ultimate indicator? One d-list data point that’s marked the end of recessions since 1970… President, mainstream media wake up to debt dilemma… our executive sounds off… Plus, a sector still “growing explosively,” despite the recession…

Hmmm… Is this the beginning of the end for the “sucker’s rally”?

Mr. Market’s suffered two rough days in a row. Since Monday, the S&P 500’s down 3.5%. The Dow has fallen two days in a row as well — its worst two-day streak since the March bottom, in fact. Best Buy — of all places — currently offers the best look into the market’s mood. The purveyor of plasma TVs and other adult toys revealed a 15% drop in quarterly profits yesterday. While the

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Bonds down. Gold up $17. Someone seems to think there is a whiff of inflation in the air. Sniff…sniff….

We’re not so sure. It seems too early to us.

But we’re not even going to think about it. Today, we’ve got to make tracks. We’re traveling.

In light of our voyage we’re turning today’s essay over to guest host Ian Mathias, of Agora Financial’s 5 Min. Forecast. He’ll take over from here…

Your family’s share of the government debt is now over half a million dollars. A record $546,668, to be exact.

That cheery Monday stat comes courtesy of a USA Today study, which claims that each American family’s share rose 12% in 2008. That’s $55,000 in new government debt last year for every US household – thousands more than the median household annual income. Here’s how it breaks down:

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Notes from the Investment Underground Friday, April 17, 2009 Palermo Viejo, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Here comes subprime II… 3 toxic time bombs to come… The Richebächer legacy lives on… “Scamonomics” explored… Goldman bites the hand that feeds it… TARP loses 75% of taxpayers’ money… How to get $4,201 in your pocket by June 4… Banks’ top 4 accounting gimmicks… Short squeeze pushes market higher… John O’Neill on government’s deceit… James Dale Davidson: How to grab 19% yields on Treasurys (if you’ve got government connections)…  And more!

*** Rob Parenteau, the editor of the reincarnated Richebächer Letter, warns that we are in for the second wave of these toxic mortgages ahead. The first time subprime mortgages reset at a higher rate was in 2008 and the subsequent flurry of defaults sent banks into a tailspin.

Well, get ready, warns Rob. We still have “Option ARM” and “Alt-A” loan resets

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