By Cees Bruggemans

The SARB decision last week to resume cutting interest rates is interesting, given that our CPI inflation is likely to only modestly decrease further towards 5% next year, even as global growth keeps signaling its return and our own economy likewise signals a turn in progress.

What does that make the SARB action?

Are we being unnecessarily impatient with results, reminding of 2002-2003? At the time rates were probably cut too far, eventually inviting excessive consumption and import booms. Are we now running similar risks?

Or do current circumstances warrant vigorous policy support for longer, making sure the cycle does turn?

We certainly haven’t lacked with policy support measures boosting the economy in these trying times.

The SARB lowered interest rates by 450 points in six months through May 2009, while Treasury allowed an even bigger fiscal turnaround than imagined (from a budget surplus of

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German retail sales fell more than many economists expected in September as the financial crisis continued to discourage people from spending. Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, dropped 2.3 percent from August, when they rose 1.9 percent. That's the biggest decline since May 2007.According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), turnover in retail trade in Germany in September 2008 was in nominal terms 4.1% and in real terms 1.2% larger than that in the corresponding month of the previous year. The number of days open for sale was 26 in September 2008 and 25 in September 2007. When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations (CENSUS-X-12-ARIMA), the September turnover was in nominal terms 2.5% and in real terms 2.3% smaller than that of the preceding month. Compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, retail turnover was in the first nine months 2008 in nominal ...

According to the latest provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office retail sales in Germany in May 2008 were up 3.5% in nominal terms 3.5% and in 0.7% real terms over May 2007. The number of days open for sale was identical in both years.

When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations, sales turnover was up 1.7% in nominal terms and 1.3% in real terms over April 2008. That is quite a significant increase m-o-m.Compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, retail turnover was up 2.2 % in nominal terms and down 0.4% in real terms in the first five months of 2008. German sales also fell markedly again in June, reversing from the sharp rise posted in May according to the Bloomberg retail PMI reading. The index slumped from the

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