The fact that Hungary's National Bank did not decide to make an unexpected interest rate cut at its meeting earlier this week seems to have a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchiveamp;sid=a84zp9hh0af0"surprised some/a, but it really should not have done. According to James Morsink, head of the IMF delegation to Budapest, Hungary only has room to cut its benchmark interest rate a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchiveamp;sid=aW.6Yo1wzmp4"at a “gradual and cautious” pace/a. The reasoning behind this view is simple, any more rapid reduction in the bank's benchmark rate risks being accompanied by a devaluation of the forint, and and any such devaluation would inevitably lead to a rise in mortgage defaults and problems for the banking system as holders of Swiss Franc forex loans find themselves unable to maintain their payments as unemployment rises and wages and salaries fall.br /br /Thus it is that even though the Hungarian economy is now in its worst recession in over a decade ...

The U.S. Treasury has agreed to lend $6 billion to GMAC LLC (GOM), the financing arm of General Motors Corp. (GM), in the latest government effort to keep the biggest U.S. automaker out of bankruptcy.

GMAC immediately announced looser credit lending standards that could make approximately 60 million Americans eligible for its car loans and leases. The company also said it would expand further into the retail banking industry with plans to access even more funds from the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

GMAC will “continue to pursue” other ways to boost liquidity, including applying for a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. guaranty program and attracting retail deposits from consumers, Toni Simonetti a spokeswoman for GMAC told Bloomberg News.

“This is part of our strategy to position GMAC for long-term stability,” said Simonetti. “The reason we’re doing this is so

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If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be

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Japan dominates news wires…  US retail sales to drop… Russia devalues the ruble again…  And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Most of the markets were closed yesterday, and trading was very light on Christmas eve. The Asian markets were open, and the dollar did sell off a bit vs. most of the major currencies with the one exception being the Japanese yen.

Unless we see a big bounce today, the yen will end the day with the first weekly loss vs. the US$ in two months. With a majority of markets closed, most news stories centered around the Japanese yen. Japanese industrial production fell the most in 55 years as reported on Wednesday. Factory output plunged 8.1% from October, more than 6.8% estimated by economists. Other data released in Japan showed the jobless rate climbed to 3.9% from 3.7%, and household spending slid .5%, a ninth drop.

Markets are now counting on the

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Preliminary retail sales reports for the holidays are in. According to SpendingPulse, a unit of MasterCard, total retail sales (excluding autos) declined 8% year-over-year for the period Dec 1 through 24. More troubling was the report issued by ShopperTrak. It reported that customer visits to retailers declined 24% (the largest drop ever) last weekend versus last year. Keep in mind that the weekend before Christmas is usually the busiest shopping time of the year, as shoppers look for last-minute gifts. ShopperTrak also estimated that retails sales for Dec 19-21 fell 5.3%. Our take is that sales trends have deteriorated from November into December. Falling gasoline prices are not enticing consumers to consume more. In light of a weak economy, higher unemployment, and tighter credit markets, consumers are choosing to spend less and save more. Those who are spending money in retail stores are

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It looks like a stupor-inducingly dull day in the market. I survived Christmas, though my Aunt's dog, Sidney, did not. In fact, it died at my house yesterday afternoon. Sidney was a very old dog, a good dog, and very loved, and will be missed very much.brbrEarlier in the day, we had fun. Along with presents, tons of food, and good friends, we played games. It's something of a tradition at my house.brbrMy team won this one: A href=http://www.amazon.com/Cranium-101010000-100E/dp/B00000DMBQ/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8s=toys-and-gamesamp;qid=1230299863amp;sr=1-1strongCranium/strong/A. I highly recommend it, especially for competitive families who like screaming at each other in a mix of outrage and glee.brbrLater, I lost this one: A href=http://www.amazon.com/Rio-Grande-Games-4098395-Carcassonne/dp/B00005UNAX/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8amp;s=toys-and-gamesamp;qid=1230299958amp;sr=1-1strongCarcassone./strong/A Doesn't matter -- it's a great game, and I'll win it another time. I bought A href=http://www.amazon.com/Vintage-Sports-Cards-Carcassone-Expansion/dp/B0009K6T2E/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8amp;s=toys-and-gamesamp;qid=1230300041amp;sr=1-2strongCarcassone: Princessamp;Dragon Expansion /strong/Aas a gift for Cindy. She squealed with delight to find that under the tree.brbrHere's what I'm reading today (and so very little of it ...

PI can count on one hand the number of economists who were expecting the holiday shopping season to be a good one. But even the generally grim consensus forecasts apparently weren't grim enough, according to early sales results. Here are some more details from the A href=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123025036865134309.htmlWall Street Journal/A ...brbrPrice-slashing failed to rescue a bleak holiday season for beleaguered retailers, as sales plunged across most categories on shrinking consumer spending, according to new data released Thursday.brbrDespite a flurry of last-minute shoppers lured by the deep discounts, total retail sales, excluding automobiles, fell over the year-earlier period by 5.5% in November and 8% in December through Christmas Eve, according to MasterCard Inc.'s SpendingPulse unit.brbrWhen gasoline sales are excluded, the fall in overall retail sales is more modest: a 2.5% drop in November and a 4% decline in December. A 40% drop in gasoline prices over the year-earlier period contributed to the ...

Preliminary retail sales reports for the holidays are in. According to SpendingPulse, a unit of MasterCard, total retail sales (excluding autos) declined 8% year-over-year for the period Dec 1 through Dec 24.

More troubling was the report issued by ShopperTrak. It reported that customer visits to retailers declined 24% (the largest drop ever) last weekend versus last year. Keep in mind that the weekend before Christmas is usually the busiest shopping time of the year, as shoppers look for last-minute gifts. ShopperTrak also estimated that retails sales for Dec 19- Dec 21 fell 5.3%.

Our take is that sales trends have deteriorated from November into December. Falling gasoline prices are not enticing consumers to consume more. In light of a weak economy, higher unemployment, and tighter credit markets, consumers are choosing to spend less and save more. Those who are spending money in retail stores are buying heavily discounted items

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Statistics from China's Ministry of Commerce showed that China's catering and lodging industry realized retail sales of CNY137.66 billion in November 2008, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, but a decrease of 6.6% compared with that of October 2008. From January to November of 2008, the retail sales of China's catering and lodging industry were about CNY1.4 [...]

GoldDrivers 2009 – Extraordinary Bullish Outlook for Gold

By: Eric Hommelberg ldSeek.com

Dollar topping out Physical demand skyrocketing Supply chain shutting down COMEX Gold Manipulation exposed Gold shares on the move again

It sure has been a brutal year for gold and its shares and many may wonder if the $1030 top clocked in March 2008 marked the top for the gold bull market that started in April 2001. Despite the fact that many analysts want you to believe that gold has failed to act as a

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