Though this paper bears a date of "June 2009," I have just now come across it.  Stanislav Secrieru of the excellent Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) has a piece which considers whether or not the economic crisis and lower oil prices will motivate Russia to scale back its more aggressive foreign policy ambitions.  Secrieru envisions two scenarios:  one in which a more compliant Kremlin seeks to bridge the gap with the West, or second, that things remain the same with Russia maintaining its normative independence in foreign policy making.Below is a quote, download the 10-page paper here:

Rationalists argue that power capabilities define the actors' foreign policy goals. Accordingly, they assume that a decline in state resources will compel Russia to scale down its international ambitions. There are expectations that, as the crisis strikes with full force, ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /The Russian ruble strengthened the most in more than three months against the dollar yesterday (gaining 1.7 percent to 32.2247 per dollar at one point) as oil rebounded above $60 a barrel and OAO Sberbank reported better-than-expected earnings. Sberbank shares jumped 5.1 percent after first-quarter net income turned out to be above analyst estimates. But the rise was also helped by the fact that Russia’s central bank spent approximately $2 billion from reserves to try to stop the ruble from falling yesterday, taking central bank reserve spending over the two working days since they lowered interest rates half a percantage point on Friday to around $4 billion, a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchiveamp;sid=aTqgrOY1vdEo"according to reports in the newspaper Kommersant/a.br /br /Russia’s central bank cut its main interest rates for the fourth time in less than three months at the end of last week after the government estimated the ...

The IMF has predicted that Russia's economy will contract by up to 6% this year, but will grow by 0.5% in 2010.  Putin has drawn up new proposals for recapitalizing the banking sector and has said that a gradual slowing of inflation will allow the central bank to slash its refinancing rate.  The Prime Minister will also introduce measures to simplify taxes for small businesses and remove the requirement for them to have cash registers.  Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has said that the Reserve Fund will be 'practically exhausted' by 2010.  The Central Bank will increase bank lending by 10-12% this year.  Russia may cut its poultry quota by 2010 as domestic output increases.  Igor Zyuzin's steel and coal producer Mechel will buy up West Virginian assets from Bluestone Coal for $436 million in cash.  ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /According to Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach last week, Russia's economy shrank by 7 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2009, a staggering turnaround for an economy which has just enjoyed eight years of solid oil-fueled growth.br /br /"These figures are worse than we expected," Klepach said at a press conference in Kiev,citing preliminary figures. Klepach also stated that net capital outflows reached $33 billion in the first quarter of 2009, following record outflows of $130 billion in the second half of last year.br /br /pa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdsTJmo57XI/AAAAAAAANbI/gYR1beR2NiI/s1600-h/russia+gdp.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5321868440380239218" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 229px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdsTJmo57XI/AAAAAAAANbI/gYR1beR2NiI/s400/russia+gdp.png" border="0" //abr /br /The Russian State Statistics Service have also released official gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter of 2008. GDP was up 1.2 percent year on year, the worst reading for any quarter since ...

blockquote“A significant amount, if not all, of the speculative attacks on the ruble are funded by the central bank itself,” said Vladimir Osakovsky, Moscow-based economist for UniCredit/blockquotepThe underlying dynamics of the current ruble devaluation are provoking more than a little consternation in Russia at the moment. In the forefront of the debate are data from Bank Rossii (the central bank) which show they lent 7.7 trillion rubles ($214 billion) in overnight and seven-day loans (secured with bonds or other collateral) in just 16 trading days last month - this was about double the 4.8 trillion rubles provided via so-called repurchase auctions in December. Over the same period the ruble lost 18 percent against the dollar. The question is, is there a connection here?/ppRussia's banking authorities now certainly seem to think there is and Kommersant reported (Friday) that policy makers planned to reduce bank loans in an attempt to limit ...

Russia’s current woes can be readily summed up in just one single variable – the value of the ruble – and this value, as we all know, is falling. Almost uncontrollably so.br /br /blockquoteThe bank’s target will be “very quickly” breached without more intervention, said Gaelle Blanchard of Societe Generale SA in London. “Right now the market is convinced it wants to see the ruble lower,” Blanchard said. “As long as the central bank gives these targets, then speculators are going to have something to aim for.”br /br //blockquoteblockquote“The market is testing whether the authorities see this band as something permanent or something that will move,” said Lars Rassmussen, an emerging markets analyst at Danske Bank A/S. “Our view is that they’ll move it because it’s not worth wasting the reserves for a band that is obviously not wide enough.”/blockquoteblockquoteFirst Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov expressed regret that the general …

By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Russia's foreign-exchange reserves have been now been declining very rapidly since mid August, and as the money goes so does the faith that the large stock of reserves the country built up during the boom times would be sufficient to see them through any downturn in energy prices. As the money leaves, so it seems does the decade of economic growth and stability which they symbolised. Indeed so rapid has been the decline that Russia's international reserves, which are the third-biggest after those of China and Japan, have now fallen $161 billion, or 27% percent, since 8 August last, and decreased by $17.9 billion to $437 billion in the week to 5 December. Investors have now pulled $211 billion out of the country since August, according to estimates by BNP Paribas.br /br /br /pa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUbQptNe4tI/AAAAAAAALyE/K0xlBOy3AlA/s1600-h/russia+GDP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5280137028067844818" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: ...

Gazprom's plan to boost investment spending by 25% this year “shocked'' analysts due to its indication that the company has “unacceptable” free cash flow. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin says that long-term falling oil export prices might mean that Russia will begin to spend the Reserve Fund, its "financial cushion", in 2015. The UK’s Energy Minister is attempting to help Nigeria overcome problems in its energy sector. “Russia has demonstrated its willingness to use oil and gas for political purposes on several occasions.” Oil is seeing its biggest weekly gain in two months.