In 1971 a nuclear physicist Ralph Lapp used the phrase “China Syndrome” to describe what might happen in an extreme example of a nuclear power plant meltdown. His theory was that the molten core of the reactor might be so hot and toxic that it would burn through the floor of the power plant and sink through the earth’s crust before exiting the other side of the earth through China.

This has never happened in the various nuclear accidents, but it’s a powerful idea that spawned the 1979 movie called The China Syndrome, which was released just 12 days before an accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania.

I only mention it because the idea captures quite nicely the potential economic impact here of a Chinese economic slump. New Zealanders underestimate the impact of Chinese economic boom on the global economy generally and on our own economy.

Another currency rally….  Bank of Canada cuts 75 BPS!…  A Santa rally?… What Asia thinks… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! OK… Another day of “healing” for the currencies, as the 1.29 handle was achieved and held on to in the overnight markets. Slowly… Like sand through the hourglass, these are the days of currency healing! HA! That show, Days of our Lives, was burned into my brain as a kid, as it was my mother’s fave soap.

The single unit was higher within the 1.29 handle overnight than it is right now, as it has given back a bit of ground on the news that a European Union Commissioner, Buti, said that, “economic indicators point

Another currency rally….  Bank of Canada cuts 75 BPS!…  A Santa rally?… What Asia thinks… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! OK… Another day of “healing” for the currencies, as the 1.29 handle was achieved and held on to in the overnight markets. Slowly… Like sand through the hourglass, these are the days of currency healing! HA! That show, Days of our Lives, was burned into my brain as a kid, as it was my mother’s fave soap.

The single unit was higher within the 1.29 handle overnight than it is right now, as it has given back a bit of ground on the news that a European Union Commissioner, Buti, said that, “economic indicators point

Dollar falls against the euro, gains against the yen… Hope of bailout for U.S. carmakers boosts sentiment… Risk aversion likely to remain for some time…

The dollar fell against the euro on Monday as talk of an imminent bailout deal for the three U.S. automakers boosted stocks in Europe and Asia and helped to quell extreme levels of risk aversion.

The rise of 5 percent in benchmark indexes outside the U.S. sent the low-yielding Japanese yen and U.S. dollar lower against the Australian dollar, sterling and other currencies perceived in the market to have higher risk.

Analysts said expectations that a rescue of the “Big Three” U.S. automakers will materialize, along with more stimulus measures from governments around the world was helping to calm a recent sell-off in risky assets which has send yields on three-month Treasury bills to near zero.

The “U.S. dollar is sharply lower

2009 could the first global recession since the 1930s, according to a UN report. But John Crooks says forex traders can use the economic slump to make big profits. He picks four currencies that will be “on the chopping block” for 2009.

This from The Sovereign Society:

The U.N. is predicting the first worldwide recession since the 1930s … for 2009. If that wasn’t bad enough, developed nations are supposed to shrink up to 1.5%. “It seems inevitable that the major countries will see significant contraction in the immediate period…even if the bail-out and stimulus package succeed,” according to the report. In other words, the recession may have spared Black Friday 2008, but next year, the worldwide recession will cut into worldwide spending even further. In the currency markets, you can already see that four currencies will suffer next year as the U.N.’s prophecy comes true…

The Four Currencies

RBA cuts 100 BPS…  It IS a recession!  Paulson to ruffle feathers?  Yen to rally hard? And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Right out of the starters blocks this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pulled the rug right out from under the “high yield status” of their economy, with another HUGE rate cut overnight… This time, the RBA cut 100 BPS, to an internal cash rate of 4.25%. This brings the total since September to 300 BPS! WOW! Talk about effectively unwinding seven years of tightening! The statement following the rate announcement leads me to believe that the RBA is probably finished cutting rates for now… It will be a wait-n-see what happens globally, before the RBA entertains any talk of further rate cuts… At least that’s my opinion!

Had a long talk with the legal beagles yesterday… The just don’t like what / how I say things. This all stems

Japanese yen rallies…  Renminbi stumbles…  A very tough data week in store…  Rate cuts all around the world… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Well… When I left you last Wednesday, I had thought that we could be on the cusp of a “change” in the currencies, as the Trading Theme that had held a tight grip on the currencies since July, was thrown to the side for a couple of days… But, I doubt “that” has happened, as a return to risk aversion is back on the table, which means the currencies and precious metals get sold, while Japanese yen, and U.S. Treasuries (read dollars) get bought.

And Japanese yen is “getting bought!” Yen is trading

Dollar rises vs euro as risk aversion persists…  Yen supported on persistent global economy fears…  Euro zone inflation plunges

The dollar rose against the euro on thin trade on Friday, as weak equities markets and fears of a deepening global recession led investors to seek the U.S. currency as a haven.

Worries about consumer spending helped weigh on U.S. and European shares, while the low-yielding yen gained ground.

Extreme risk aversion and repatriation flows have been supporting the U.S. currency recently.

The euro weakened against the yen and sterling on growing expectations that slowing euro zone inflation may lead the European Central Bank to cut interest rates more aggressively next week from the current benchmark rate of 3.25 percent.

Trading volumes were lower than usual as U.S. markets reopened for only half a day after Thanksgiving Holiday.

“Trading is very thin,

Currencies continue to rally…  More Stimulus…  Data shows more rot on the vine… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Another rally day in the currencies yesterday… One that wasn’t as pronounced as Monday’s 3-cent rally… But a rally just the same, and at one point, the euro was trading above 1.30… Hadn’t seen that level in a while, so welcome back to the 1.30 level, Mr. euro…

Someone sent me a note the other day, and said, why don’t you talk about Australia, Canada, and Swiss more? Hmmmm… Maybe they don’t read the Pfennig “every day”… But those currencies are in my notes most days, and if they are not, they are a part of the overall direction in currencies that are being pushed down by the Trading Theme… But in the spirit of the season…

Aussie dollars have rebounded nicely the last three days, but this is really putting a band-aid on a bullet

Paulson throws the markets a curve…  Goldman says to buy the yen…  RBA intervenes to protect the AUD$… China provides support to commodities… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… Chuck is out today, so I get the opportunity to share some of my thoughts on the markets. As many of you know, I spent most of last week in Washington DC giving presentations at the Money Show. On the way to the hotel, the cab driver who had noticed my EverBank luggage tag asked if I was a banker. He said he had seen a lot of us lately. I guess I was one of the few bankers flying into Washington DC who wasn’t heading over to the Treasury Dept.