This morning, Janet Yellen, the President of the San Francisco Fed, spoke about the state of the economy. Below are key excerpts from the speech, as well as my reaction to them (spoiler alert: I am in overall agreement with her). "This is the first talk I’ve given since the economy has officially been reported to be growing again. The economy’s return to growth after a year and a half of recession marks a major turn, and it looks like more than a flash in the pan. It seems to me that the economy has entered a sustained period of expansion. "We’ve seen meaningful upturns in areas as diverse as housing, consumer spending, industrial production and foreign trade. And, a number of factors bode well for the future, including a better functioning financial system, low mortgage interest rates, a resurgent stock market, a stabilization of house ...

This post is a guest contribution by Asha Bangalore * of The Northern Trust Company.

The recession is behind us. Real gross domestic product of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter after a 0.75 drop in the prior quarter. This is the first increase of real GDP after a string of four quarterly declines. Real GDP has declined in five out of the six quarters of the recession.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research will make the official announcement after it confirms the turning point based on revisions of economic data. This recession is the longest on record in the post-war period and the deepest also. Real GDP has declined 3.8% from the peak in the second quarter

...

This post is a guest contribution by Asha Bangalore* of The Northern Trust Company.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the arbiter of business cycles, officially announced the trough of March 1991 on December 22, 1992 and the trough of November 2001 on July 17, 2003. Based on this history, there is a lapse of roughly 20 months before the Business Cycle Dating Committee has announced the date of a business cycle trough. Real gross domestic product had risen in the second quarter of 1991 (see chart 1) and the fourth quarter of 2001 (see chart 2) and stayed positive until the next recession.

Real gross domestic product is projected to show an increase in the third quarter of 2009. Real gross domestic product is a quarterly estimate.

...

How does the current economic and financial downturn match up to past contractions?

In an attempt to present matters in historical context, Paul Swartz of the Council on Foreign Relations recently published a chart book showing that the current economic environment has been more severe than a typical recession. He specifically highlights the following four conclusions:

• Financial markets have dramatically improved, but from an extremely low base. Rather than pricing in disaster, they anticipate tough times ahead. For example, the charts on the spread for AAA and BAA bonds show the credit market moving from unprecedented panic to a level of fear that is merely in keeping with the worst experiences since 1945.

• Real economy indicators show signs of stabilization. See in particular the charts on manufacturing sentiment, non-farm payrolls, oil prices, and car sales. Nonetheless, many of these indicators remain worse than

...

When the Chairman of the Fed testifies before Congress, it is always a good idea to pay attention. Even if you do not agree with his assessment of the economy, it is an important insight into what the Fed is likely to be doing in the near future. Below are excerpts from his prepared testimony, with my interpretation and commentary interspersed. "The U.S. economy has contracted sharply since last fall, with real gross domestic product (GDP) having dropped at an average annual rate of about 6 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of this year. Among the enormous costs of the downturn is the loss of nearly 6 million jobs since the beginning of 2008. The most recent information on the labor market -- the number of new and continuing claims for unemployment insurance through late May -- suggests that sizable job losses ...

Highlights include General Motors Corp. (GM), Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and Regions Financial (RF).Below is a long excerpt from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's prepared remarks for today's testimony before the joint economic committee. I intersperse my comments and interpretation between paragraphs.Unlike his predecessor, Bernanke actually speaks in language that most people can understand. However, there are a number of things that deserve further explanation."The U.S. economy has contracted sharply since last autumn, with real gross domestic product (GDP) having dropped at an annual rate of more than 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of this year. Among the enormous costs of the downturn is the loss of some 5 million payroll jobs over the past 15 months."The most recent information on the labor market -- ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /The performance of the worldwide manufacturing sector remained very weak in February. Although the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose further from December's record low, at 35.8 it was still well below the critical no-change mark of 50.0. Rates of decline eased for production and new orders, but accelerated to reach a new survey record for employment.br /blockquote"The PMI edged higher for a second successive month in February. The data are still pointing to marked declines in output and new orders, but the gains in these indexes indicate that the rate of contraction has begun to ease in global industry. Production cuts are likely to remain deep near-term while companies reduce inventory." David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan/blockquotebr /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SaweWTZ7AnI/AAAAAAAAM4E/mTNmx1ft-QM/s1600-h/global+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308651429277926002" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SaweWTZ7AnI/AAAAAAAAM4E/mTNmx1ft-QM/s400/global+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /Employment declined ...

BEA: News Release: Gross Domestic Product

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.

Here’s how the year/year percentage change in GDP and in corporate equipment/software investment looks when charted.