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Prieur’s readings (November 18, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (November 18th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• OUPblog: Oxford Word of the Year 2009: Unfriend, November 16, 2009. Every year the New Oxford American Dictionary prepares for the holidays by making its biggest announcement of the year.  This announcement is usually applauded by some and derided by others and the ongoing conversation it sparks is always a lot of fun, so I encourage you to let us know what you think in the comments.

Without further ado, the 2009 Word of the Year is: “unfriend”. “Unfriend” - verb - to remove someone as a “friend” on a social networking site such as Facebook.

• Martin Wolf (Financial Times): Grim truths Obama should have told Hu, November 17, 2009. Obama

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Real Estate Investment Trusts – Zacks Analyst Interviews

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 23rd, 2009) Writes:
Amid positive signals emanating from the uptick in housing prices and an improving outlook for consumer spending, the housing sector is gradually stabilizing. Both new and existing home sales have increased during the last four consecutive months and are now 32% and 17% above their recent lows, respectively. Single-family housing starts have also risen 37% from their low point, and inventories of homes-for-sale have fallen sharply.

Equity REITs rebounded nicely in the third quarter, recording total returns of 33% (total return FTSE NAREIT Index) vs. a 15% gain each for the S&P and the Dow. The strong third quarter returns marked the second consecutive record-setting performance of equity REITs after a dismal performance in the first quarter of 2009.

In what has been a volatile year, equity REITs gained approximately 29% (total return FTSE NAREIT Index) in the second quarter after falling 32% in the first quarter. So far in October, equity

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Real Estate Investment Trusts – Industry Outlook

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 23rd, 2009) Writes:
Amid positive signals emanating from the uptick in housing prices and an improving outlook for consumer spending, the housing sector is gradually stabilizing. Both new and existing home sales have increased during the last four consecutive months and are now 32% and 17% above their recent lows, respectively. Single-family housing starts have also risen 37% from their low point, and inventories of homes-for-sale have fallen sharply.

Equity REITs rebounded nicely in the third quarter, recording total returns of 33% (total return FTSE NAREIT Index) vs. a 15% gain each for the S&P and the Dow. The strong third quarter returns marked the second consecutive record-setting performance of equity REITs after a dismal performance in the first quarter of 2009.

In what has been a volatile year, equity REITs gained approximately 29% (total return FTSE NAREIT Index) in the second quarter after falling 32% in the first quarter. So far in October, equity

...

Real Estate Investment Trusts – Industry Outlook

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 22nd, 2009) Writes:
Amid positive signals emanating from the uptick in housing prices and an improving outlook for consumer spending, the housing sector is gradually stabilizing. Both new and existing home sales have increased during the last four consecutive months and are now 32% and 17% above their recent lows, respectively. Single-family housing starts have also risen 37% from their low point, and inventories of homes-for-sale have fallen sharply. Equity REITs rebounded nicely in the third quarter, recording total returns of 33% (total return FTSE NAREIT Index) vs. a 15% gain each for the S&P and the Dow. The strong third quarter returns marked the second consecutive record-setting performance of equity REITs after a dismal performance in the first quarter of 2009. In what has been a volatile year, equity REITs gained approximately 29% (total return FTSE NAREIT Index) in the second quarter after falling 32% in the first quarter. ...

How the Government is Setting Us Up for a Second Subprime Crisis

Shah Gilani (September 23rd, 2009) Writes:

Is the government creating another subprime-mortgage bubble?

The first time around, the three-headed federal serpent – the Bush administration, the Treasury Department and the U.S. Federal Reserve – used Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) to “legitimize” trillions of dollars worth of toxic financial waste known as subprime mortgages.

The result was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression – a mess that was global in nature.

And we’re now headed for a repeat performance.

Some of the players may have changed since the first subprime-mortgage crisis, but the game apparently remains the same. With banks currently unwilling to lend, the new federal triumvirate of the Obama administration, the Treasury and the Fed are trying to inflate the moribund U.S. housing market. This time around, however, the FHA is the weapon of choice.

Obama & Co. are making an all-or-nothing bet that the

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Tags for this Post:
bank balance sheets, Bank Failures, bank viability, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp., Bear Stearns, Boxer, bush administration, China, contrarian profits, Department of the Treasury, Europe, Fannie Mae, Fdic, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Federal Reserve System, Florida, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Maes, Government National Mortgage Association, inspector general, insurance guarantees, internal inspector general, Investing Lessons, Japan, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Market Commentary, Middle East, now-failed investment bank, Obama & Co., Obama administration, Ocala, Real Estate Prices, residential real estate loans;, residential real estate pricing, Russia, Secretary, Shaun Donovan, Stearns territory, Taylor Bean, The Wall Street Journal, U .S. Federal Reserve;, U S Treasury, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, U.S. government;, United States, USD

Guest Contribution: Reforming Banking by Reforming Housing

Menzie Chinn (September 15th, 2009) Writes:

By Simon van Norden

Today, we're fortunate to have Simon van Norden, Professor of Finance at HEC Montréal (École des Hautes Études Commerciales), continue as a guest contributor.

In my previous post, I wrote about some of the evidence linking serious banking crises to real estate market collapses. That evidence is far from iron clad; it is simply the observation that many banking crises in mature economies have their origins in a real estate boom and bust cycle. However, the idea is also intuitively appealing.

Remember that at the end of 2008, the Federal Reserve Board estimated that there was $12 Trillion of mortgage debt on residential properties in the US, with the Federal government and its agencies providing about 5% of the total, individuals 9% and the rest coming from the financial sector. The Case-Shiller composite index of housing prices has fallen 1/3 from its peak in

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Guest Blog: Financial Crisis and Reform Déjà Vu

Menzie Chinn (September 7th, 2009) Writes:

By Simon van Norden

Today, we're fortunate to have Simon van Norden, Professor of Finance at HEC Montréal (École des Hautes Études Commerciales), as a guest blogger.

"Once you've seen one financial market crisis...you've seen one financial market crisis."

-- Attributed to Federal Reserve Board Governor Kevin Warsh by former US Treasury Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Phillip Swagel in The Financial Crisis: an Inside View, March 2009, p. 4.

The financial crisis has set a lot of records so far; it's certainly the worst US banking crisis of my lifetime. Some, as suggested by the above quote, see such crises as unique events; each one is singular and there's not much to be learned about how to handle one from looking at past crises. For example, there's no precedent that I know of for a banking crisis involves the failure of the biggest counterparties for credit default swaps.

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Three (More) Reasons Real Estate Isn’t Rebounding

Louis Basenese (August 4th, 2009) Writes:

Housing Market Showing Signs of Stability? Puh-lease!

The mainstream press would have us to believe a real estate market rebound is imminent. They keep glomming onto any data that shows the slightest sign of stability.

For instance, Bloomberg jumped all over the July 1 report from the National Association of Realtors that showed pending sales for previously owned homes rose for the fourth consecutive month. Other outlets had a field day with the news out of the Mortgage Bankers Association that refinancings hit a three-month high in early July. And ditto for the news that foreclosures dropped 11% in the second quarter.

But these “signs of stabilization” are bogus. Or to beg, borrow and steal from value-investing legend, Whitney Tilson, they are the “mother of all head fakes.”

Fact is, these short-term improvements were fabricated. They materialized because of temporary factors like the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit (set to expire November 30),

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The U.S. Housing Market: Three (More) Reasons Real Estate Isn’t Rebounding

Investment U (August 3rd, 2009) Writes:

The U.S. Housing Market: Three (More) Reasons Real Estate Isn’t Rebounding

by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist

Editor’s Note: Yesterday we heard from Martin Denholm, the managing editor at Smart Profits, one of our affiliate publications which will be joining us over the next few weeks. We’ll be adding their experts to our esteemed panelists to give you the best investing ideas and advice out there. Today we follow Martin with outspoken favorite, Louis Basenese, who also gives us his take and concern for investors, on the housing market.

If ever an off-the-wall indicator existed to predict the fate of the U.S. housing market, I found it… You see, business is booming in one particular niche of the real estate industry - shrink-wrap.

That’s right. Contractors and developers are wrapping mothballed building projects in plastic, literally - from single-family homes to 25,000 square foot commercial properties.

The beneficiary? Privately-held Fast Wrap

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Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day Highlights: Hanesbrands, Inc., CEMEX, S.A. de C.V., ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and Chevron – Press Releases

Zacks Market Commentaries (July 31st, 2009) Writes:

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – July 31, 2009 – Zacks Equity Research highlights Hanesbrands, Inc. (HBI) as the Bull of the Day and CEMEX, S.A. de C.V. (CX) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2676

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

Hanesbrands, Inc. (HBI) management's business model requires only modest sales growth to create substantial EPS growth. Earnings are being driven by brand-building and cost-reduction initiatives.

Since the spin-off in September 2006, the company has reduced debt by $511 million, lowering interest expense from the post spin-off financial structure. However, management is reporting non-GAAP EPS, which excludes unusual actions, which may be distorting perceived earnings.

The Buy rating is maintained due

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