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Commercial real estate: How deep is the rabbit-hole?

Prieur du Plessis (November 23rd, 2009) Writes:

D.C.-area developer Jeff Neal gives the Huffington Post Investigative Fund a tour of empty commercial properties just blocks from the Capitol. Hundreds of small and medium-sized banks are facing huge numbers of possible defaults by builders who erected thousands of office towers, condominiums and shopping centers with the easy credit available five years ago.

“Commercial real estate loans generally have terms of five to seven years. Many of the loans issued at the height of the credit bubble are coming due. By mid-November, $150 billion worth of commercial properties, about 7,500 in total, were in distress, according to Real Capital Analytics Research,” reported The Huffington Post. More than 400 banks are on a problem list maintained by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, largely as a result of commercial debt.

Referring to the malaise of commercial real estate, Michael Stevens, senior vice president for regulatory policy at the

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Bank Failures Rise to 123 – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (November 16th, 2009) Writes:
Regulators shut down 2 banks in Florida and 1 in California; U.S. bank failures reach 123 this year.   U.S. regulators on Friday shuttered two more banks in Florida and one in California. Though there are some early signs of economic recovery, bank failures continue unabated. This takes the total number of bank failures to 123, compared to 25 in 2008 and 3 in 2007.  The weak economy continues to weigh heavily on banks with a stream of loan defaults. As the industry has to tolerate bad loans that were made during the credit explosion, the trouble in the banking system goes even deeper, increasing the possibility of more bank failures. However, the regulators are trying to avoid panic by seizing banks slowly. Also, the slow seizing could be a strategy as it is hard to get buyers for so many failed banks.  The failed banks were ...

Bank Failure Tally Reaches 120 – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (November 9th, 2009) Writes:
Regulators shut down 5 more banks in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and California; tally hits 120 so far this year  U.S. regulators on Friday shuttered five more institutions in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and California , as the recession continues to take its toll on banks. This takes the total number to 120, compared to 25 in 2008 and 3 in 2007.  As the industry has to tolerate bad loans that were made during the credit explosion, the trouble in the banking system goes even deeper, increasing the possibility of more failures. However, the regulators are trying to avoid panic by seizing banks slowly. Also, the slow pace of seizing could be a strategy as it is hard to get buyers for so many failed banks.  The failed banks were -- Georgia-based United Security Bank of Sparta with total assets of $157 million and total deposits ...
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U.S. Bank Failures Reach 99 in ‘09 – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 19th, 2009) Writes:
U.S. bank failures continue unabated as U.S. regulators on Friday closed down San Joaquin Bank of Bakersfield, CA. This takes the total number of failed federally insured banks to 99 in 2009, compared to 25 in 2008 and 3 in 2007. As of September 29, San Joaquin Bank, a subsidiary of San Joaquin Bancorp, had about $775 million in assets, $631 million in deposits and 5 branches. The bank had not been included in a previous list of 89 institutions that were undercapitalized as of March 31. But its first quarter amended filing showed that there were additional loan charge-offs and a higher net loss. As of June 30, San Joaquin Bank’s Tier 1 leverage ratio was 4.12% and the total risk-based capital ratio was 6.70%. Though the Tier 1 leverage ratio was above the minimum level of 4% considered adequately capitalized, its total risk-based capital ratio ...

GDP’s Debt to Credit

Contrarian Profits (September 23rd, 2009) Writes:

The FDIC is considering tapping its emergency line of credit with the Treasury. FDIC Chair Sheila Bair recently hinted after a speech at Georgetown University that all options are on the table when it comes time to replenish the dwindling Deposit Insurance Fund. We’ll find out more in the next few weeks after the FDIC board of directors meets.

Stock market bulls aren’t concerned about the inevitable acceleration in bank failures — at least for now. Even though deposits will be insured against loss, the loss of local banks will still have a depressing effect on hundreds of small communities. These communities are going to lose their only access to business credit when their local zombie banks — loaded with toxic construction or commercial real estate loans — are liquidated or merged into other weak banks.

Meanwhile, the latest monthly figures show that commercial bank balance sheets are shrinking at a fairly

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The Next Big-Gov Bailout

Contrarian Profits (September 22nd, 2009) Writes:

Looks like another government arm will soon be knocking on the Treasury’s door: “We are currently considering all options, including borrowing from the Treasury,” said FDIC chairwoman Sheila Bair. As we’ve forecast many times, the steady collapse of banks around the U.S. has put an irreparable dent in the FDIC deposit insurance fund.

Now likely less than $10 billion strong and with more bank failures sure to come, the FDIC faces two choices: Raise their taxes on banks to bolster the fund or tap the Treasury. Given the health of the U.S. banking system and the tendencies of our government over the last decade, you can probably guess which Bair will chose. Here’s another hint… Barney Frank, leader of the House Financial Services Committee, has already publicly opined on what Bair should do.

The FDIC has the authority to borrow as much as $500 billion through 2010.

“Stock market bulls aren’t concerned about

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Economy improves but concerns remain

James Hamilton (September 20th, 2009) Writes:

Last week we received positive readings for some key economic indicators. But I still see plenty to worry about.

Source: FRED sales_sep_09.png

On Tuesday the Census Bureau announced that U.S. retail and food services sales in August were 2.7% higher than in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. True, 2/3 of the additional $9 billion in spending was attributed to motor vehicles and parts, and September car sales could be much worse than August. Another 1/6 of the new spending came from gasoline stations, and the higher average gasoline prices in August are hardly cause for celebration. But even excluding autos and gasoline, core retail sales were up 0.6% in August. Here's the summary from Stephen Stanley of RBS:

after a string of contractions, these data suggest that consumer demand is, at a minimum, stabilizing. Core retail sales may even

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The Coming Commercial Real Estate Crisis

Contrarian Profits (September 16th, 2009) Writes:

As usual in Washington, it’s “Do as I say, not as I do.” While Ben Bernanke is talking up the U.S. economy, Congress and the IRS are scrambling to stop another real estate collapse.

First, the political left and National Association of Realtors are in the process of extending the now famous “first time homebuyer tax credit.” The initial plan, which was passed around this time last year and allows first-time homebuyers an $8,000 tax credit, is on track to cost about $15 billion — double the projected budget.

Heh, and just like “cash for clunkers” going massively over budget must be a sign of scorching legislative success. Thus, the new plan is to extend the tax credit into the summer of 2010, boost the credit to $15,000 and make all potential homebuyers eligible. Those who are content with their current home and/or unwilling to invest in a new one… well, they

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Corus Bank Fails – 92 So Far in ‘09 – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (September 14th, 2009) Writes:
Regulators shut down 3 more banks including Corus; total failed banks in '09 reach 92   Three more banks including Corus Bank NA, a subsidiary of Corus Bankshares (CORS), were shuttered by the U.S. regulators on Friday as the recession continues to take its toll on banks. This takes the total number of failed federally insured banks in this year to 92, compared to 25 in 2008 and 3 in 2007. Based in Chicago, the Corus Bank was a major lender to condominium, office and hotel projects. Corus is one of the largest banks to fail this year, with about $7 billion in total assets, $7 billion in deposits and 11 branches. Two other small banks were Lacey, WA-based Venture Bank, with $970 million in assets and $903 million in deposits and Woodbury, MN-based Brickwell Community Bank, with $72 million in assets and $63 million in ...

Bank Failures Continue – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (August 31st, 2009) Writes:
Three more U.S. banks failed; tally reaches 84 this year Bank failures continue unabated as U.S. regulators on Friday closed down three more banks in California, Maryland and Minnesota. This takes the total number of failed federally insured banks this year to 84, compared to 25 in 2008 and 3 in 2007. The failed banks were Ventura, California-based Affinity Bank, with about $1 billion in assets and $922 million in deposits; Baltimore-based Bradford Bank, with $452 million in assets and $383 million in deposits; and Forest Lake, Minnesota-based Mainstreet Bank, with $459 million in assets and $434 million in deposits. Failure of these banks represents another sizable impact on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) fund for protecting customer accounts, as it has been appointed receiver for these banks. The failure of Affinity Bank is expected to cost the deposit insurance fund an estimated $254 million; ...

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