Last week we received positive readings for some key economic indicators. But I still see plenty to worry about.

Source: FRED

On Tuesday the Census Bureau announced that U.S. retail and food services sales in August were 2.7% higher than in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. True, 2/3 of the additional $9 billion in spending was attributed to motor vehicles and parts, and September car sales could be much worse than August. Another 1/6 of the new spending came from gasoline stations, and the higher average gasoline prices in August are hardly cause for celebration. But even excluding autos and gasoline, core retail sales were up 0.6% in August. Here's the summary from Stephen Stanley of RBS:

after a string of contractions, these data suggest that consumer demand is, at a minimum, stabilizing. Core retail sales may even

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Ask most investors about E*Trade and you’ll get a mouthful about why the company is a toxic asset to be avoided at all costs.

I can’t say I blame them. After all, the company did make a foolish foray into the real estate lending business. And it did so at precisely the wrong time – the top of the market. In turn, like many banks, it got sacked as loan losses mounted.

At that point, forget a takeover. Bankruptcy appeared more imminent. And the stock quickly reflected this widely held belief, plunging by 95% from its 2007 high to trade below $1.

Unsurprisingly, many investors sprinted away from the company. But here’s what most of them don’t understand: Beneath the muck of E*Trade’s real estate operations, it possesses a valuable asset – its brokerage business…

For example, even during aterrible year for stocks in 2008, E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC) still managed to grow

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By Simon van Norden

Today, we're fortunate to have Simon van Norden, Professor of Finance at HEC Montréal (École des Hautes Études Commerciales), as a guest blogger.

"Once you've seen one financial market crisis...you've seen one financial market crisis."

-- Attributed to Federal Reserve Board Governor Kevin Warsh by former US Treasury Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Phillip Swagel in The Financial Crisis: an Inside View, March 2009, p. 4.

The financial crisis has set a lot of records so far; it's certainly the worst US banking crisis of my lifetime. Some, as suggested by the above quote, see such crises as unique events; each one is singular and there's not much to be learned about how to handle one from looking at past crises. For example, there's no precedent that I know of for a banking crisis involves the failure of the biggest counterparties for credit default swaps.

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Alabama regional lender, Colonial Bank, just became the 6th largest bank failure in U.S. history and the largest since Washington Mutual last year.

Regulators seized Colonial last Friday, selling the bank’s deposits and assets to their competitor BB&T. Colonial was founded by real estate developer, Robert E. Lowder in 1981. The bank stayed true to its roots, right to the end (of the housing bubble).

In a 2006 interview, Lowder said, “We’ve always been a real estate bank. We understand real estate lending. For us, we think it’s a good safe market to be in.” Evidently, they didn’t understand the market as well as they thought. The bank sunk under the weight of $1.7 billion in losses on bad real estate loans.

The real question regarding the failure of Colonial, is what this will do to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) maintained by the FDIC.

The FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund started 2008

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The Congressional oversight panel (COP) of the TARP program is just out with its August report (http://cop.senate.gov/documents/cop-081109-report.pdf). In it, it warns: "Treasury‘s choice to pursue direct capital purchases resulted in a notable stabilization of the financial system, and it allowed the write-down of billions of dollars of troubled assets and reserve building. But, it is likely that an overwhelming portion of the troubled assets from last October remain on bank balance sheets today. "If the troubled assets held by banks prove to be worth less than their balance sheets currently indicate, the banks may be required to raise more capital. If the losses are severe enough, some financial institutions may be forced to cease operations. This means that the future performance of the economy and the performance of the underlying loans, as well as the method of valuation of the assets, are critical to the continued ...

Below are some of the key sections of the Summary of the Fed Beige Book and my reaction to it interspersed. I have also bolded what I consider to be remarks worthy of emphasis in the report. "Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity continued to be weak going into the summer, but most Districts indicated that the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to stabilize, albeit at a low level..." In other words, the economy is no longer falling off a cliff, but it has not started to climb back either. This is consistent with most of the other economic data we have been getting recently. "Most Districts reported sluggish retail activity...Manufacturing activity showed some improvement in the Richmond, Chicago and Kansas City Districts; while St. Louis and Dallas reported some moderation ...

What do the Fed’s recently concluded “stress tests” have to do with commercial real estate? Everything. The stress test results convey the illusion that America’s largest banks possess adequate capital. But that’s not true. And since America’s largest banks possess inadequate capital, they will be reducing their exposure to commercial real estate loans. REIT-holders beware!

Forecasting loan losses at banks is an inexact science. In fact, it’s not a science at all. It’s more like a game of chance, like craps or roulette. Even if you know the odds, you still have no idea about the outcome. Forecasting future cash flow from existing loans is also a game of chance. Both of these unknowable forecasts lie at the core of last week’s stress test.

The market’s reaction to the stress test — in the form of soaring bank stocks — tells me that the consensus is treating this stress

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White House set to meet with credit card execs Officials in the Obama administration will meet Thursday with executives of credit card companies to discuss transparency of lending practices and interest rates, sources said. Lawmakers have expressed frustration with the credit card industry and threatened legislation to curb deceptive lending practices. Before the meeting, the House Financial Services Committee plans to weigh a bill that would reform the credit card industry. Reuters (16 Apr.)

Defaults pick up for corporate debt in Europe European firms have not been defaulting on their debt like U.S. companies have during the financial crisis, but the tide appears to be changing. “As bad as things are here in Europe, ...

Commercial Financing TrendCommercial Real Estate Financing TrendI have received over 250 emails from commercial real estate professionals looking for capital from hedge funds. As I usually market and work with more traditional long/short funds I have not been in contact with many who invested in commercial real estate financing projects. It seems that investing in these projects is in fact a growing trend based on this article below:A question and answer session with Ron Koenigsberg, president of American Investment Properties.Q: How has the role of hard money lenders in the commercial real estate market become more essential?A: Hedge funds have been quick to respond to the financing drought. Today as many as 140 hedge funds specializing in distressed assets or fixed-income securities have now begun to provide commercial real estate lending. More hedge ...

Commercial Financing TrendCommercial Real Estate Financing TrendI have received over 250 emails from commercial real estate professionals looking for capital from hedge funds. As I usually market and work with more traditional long/short funds I have not been in contact with many who invested in commercial real estate financing projects. It seems that investing in these projects is in fact a growing trend based on this article below:A question and answer session with Ron Koenigsberg, president of American Investment Properties.Q: How has the role of hard money lenders in the commercial real estate market become more essential?A: Hedge funds have been quick to respond to the financing drought. Today as many as 140 hedge funds specializing in distressed assets or fixed-income securities have now begun to provide commercial real estate lending. More hedge ...