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Prieur’s readings (October 24, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (October 24th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Gillian Tett (Financial Times): Rally fuelled by cheap money brings a sense of foreboding, October 22, 2009. It is crystal clear that the longer that money remains ultra cheap, the more traders will have an incentive to gamble (particularly if they privately suspect that today’s boom will be short-lived and want to score big over the next year). Somehow all this feels horribly familiar; I just hope that my sense of foreboding turns out to be wrong.

• Doug Kass (TheStreet.com): The earnings season racket, October 21, 2009. If end demand doesn’t pick up (and pick up quickly), the 2010 earnings outlook for many industries (such as semiconductors and other beneficiaries of restocking) will be in jeopardy, as

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The Coming Commercial Real Estate Crisis

Contrarian Profits (September 16th, 2009) Writes:

As usual in Washington, it’s “Do as I say, not as I do.” While Ben Bernanke is talking up the U.S. economy, Congress and the IRS are scrambling to stop another real estate collapse.

First, the political left and National Association of Realtors are in the process of extending the now famous “first time homebuyer tax credit.” The initial plan, which was passed around this time last year and allows first-time homebuyers an $8,000 tax credit, is on track to cost about $15 billion — double the projected budget.

Heh, and just like “cash for clunkers” going massively over budget must be a sign of scorching legislative success. Thus, the new plan is to extend the tax credit into the summer of 2010, boost the credit to $15,000 and make all potential homebuyers eligible. Those who are content with their current home and/or unwilling to invest in a new one… well, they

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How to Grab Significant Short-Term Profits From Technical Analysis

Investment U (August 26th, 2009) Writes:

How to Grab Significant Short-Term Profits From Technical Analysis

by Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist

“The overwhelming majority of economic theories, market forecasts, trading strategies, investment systems, hot tips and sure-fire speculations never pan out.” ~ Alexander Green

In the August 14 Investment U issue, Alexander Green urged you to stick with the tried-and-true method of fundamental analysis.

He did so using this mantra: “There is only one thing that dictates where a stock will go: earnings.”

I agree that earnings are the ultimate determinant of stock prices in the long run. But that’s not the only way to gauge where a stock is headed next.

I firmly believe that technical analysis – volume, trading patterns and historical trends – can enhance your returns tremendously and can keep you out of trouble in many cases. Here’s why…

The Problem with a

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Red Robin Not Bobbin’ Along – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (May 22nd, 2009) Writes:
Companies mentioned in this report: Red Robin Gourmet Burger (RRGB), Brinker International (EAT), California Pizza Kitchen Inc. (CPKI), Denny's (DENN) and O'Charley's (CHUX).Red Robin Customer Traffic Falls SharplyRed Robin Gourmet Burger's (RRGB) customers moved to cheaper alternatives at an accelerating pace in 1Q09 -- a trend that we expected. We are maintaining our Sell recommendation.The family-friendly casual dining chain reported a 42% drop in EPS to $0.25 in 1Q09. Excluding $0.5 million to close unprofitable restaurants and $4 million to repurchase under-water stock options from its employees, EPS was unchanged from a year ago at $0.43.To stop customers from trading down to cheaper fast food alternatives, many casual dining chains are luring cash-strapped customers with promotions, a tactic Red Robin has avoided in favor of increased advertising. Three concepts of Brinker International (EAT) -- Chili's, ...

General Growth Files Biggest Real Estate Bankruptcy in U.S. History

Don Miller (April 17th, 2009) Writes:

After months of speculation, General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP) filed the biggest real estate bankruptcy in U.S. history, ending a futile seven-month effort to refinance its debt.

General Growth filed for Chapter 11 seeking protection from creditors after it amassed $27 billion in debt accumulating over 200 shopping mall properties. The filing covers 158 of its U.S. malls, but excludes its joint-venture properties and third-party management business.

The Chicago-based company – the country’s second largest shopping mall owner – owns such valuable properties as Fashion Show in Las Vegas and Faneuil Hall Marketplace in Boston. It listed total assets of $29.56 billion and total debt of $27.29 billion.

We intend to emerge as a leaner company,” General Growth President Thomas Nolan told Bloomberg News in an interview. “We want to come out as a less leveraged company. Our business model remains strong.” In

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The Commercial Real Estate Sector: As The Other Shoe Drops – Be Wary of Bank Stocks

Investment U (April 17th, 2009) Writes:

The Commercial Real Estate Sector: As The Other Shoe Drops - Be Wary of Bank Stocks

by David Fessler, Advisory Panelist

There’s another shoe that’s quietly starting to drop in the commercial real estate sector… one that could deal a fatal blow to some of the largest banks like Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and most of the other big boys in the news for the last year.

But you wouldn’t know that by looking at the headlines…

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs announced a huge upside surprise in earnings, a $5 billion share offering, and its intention to pay back federal TARP funds ASAP.

The average investor might view this as a sign that things are returning to normal in the banking sector, and be tempted to start shoveling money back into banking stocks.

Let me suggest you wait

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Doug Casey: Opportunities Amidst Crisis

The Energy Report (February 26th, 2009) Writes:

Bullion and oil appear in the lineup of power players that Doug Casey thinks investors can count on as the world slips deeper and deeper into what he calls the “Greater Depression.” Despite the raging economic storm and Doug’s doubts that Western civilization’s governments will take the actions needed to quell it, though, the Chairman of Casey Research is nowhere close to calling the game. In fact, he sees silver lining in the clouds of crisis—opportunity—and expresses optimism that technological advances, coupled with capital rebuilding once over-consumption runs its course, will prevail eventually. The Energy Report caught up with the peripatetic author, publisher and professional international investor between polo matches in New Zealand, one of several nation-states he calls home from time to time.

The Energy Report: You’ve been discussing what you’re calling “crisis and opportunity,” and in fact have a summit by that same name coming up in Las …

Doug Casey: Opportunities Amidst Crisis

The Gold Report (February 24th, 2009) Writes:

Bullion and oil appear in the lineup of power players that Doug Casey thinks investors can count on as the world slips deeper and deeper into what he calls the “Greater Depression.” Despite the raging economic storm and Doug’s doubts that Western civilization’s governments will take the actions needed to quell it, though, the Chairman of Casey Research is nowhere close to calling the game. In fact, he sees silver lining in the clouds of crisis—opportunity—and expresses optimism that technological advances, coupled with capital rebuilding once over-consumption runs its course, will prevail eventually. The Gold Report caught up with the peripatetic author, publisher and professional international investor between polo matches in New Zealand, one of several nation-states he calls home from time to time.

The Gold Report: You’ve been discussing what you’re calling “crisis and opportunity,” and in fact have a summit by that same name coming up in Las …

The Obama Stimulus: Truth and Consequences

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. (February 16th, 2009) Writes:

Never before have I learned so much so quickly from my readers as I have now — all just by reading the thousands of comments you have posted on my blog in the past week!

One of your key questions: Will the new Obama stimulus and banking bailouts succeed or fail?

What will be the immediate and ultimate consequences?

What should I do?

Today’s gala edition is my response.

But let’s not waste time digging for causes — the economic blunders of Washington, the financial greed of Wall Street, or the big debts and risky bets by almost everyone.

Let’s also not waste time pointing fingers — the Clinton administration for creating the tech bubble, the Bush administration for creating the housing bubble, or the Obama administration …

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Three Sectors And Two Stocks That Could Benefit From “Hope And Change”

Contrarian Profits (February 2nd, 2009) Writes:

Marc Lichtenfeld from the Smart Profits Report believes that energy projects would receive nearly $40 billion worth of federal funds under the Obama Stimulus Plan. A good chunk of this will go towards renewable energy - a big part of Obama’s energy plan.One company that offers a healthy 3.5% dividend and is the largest solar and wind energy provider in the U.S. stands to see share prices climb the most.

This from the Smart Profits Report:

“It’s all the same… Only the names will change” – Bon Jovi

Ah, “politics as usual” - I knew it wouldn’t take too long before this age-old scenario reared its ugly head once again.

Having swept into office on a tsunami-like wave of goodwill, President Obama saw it evaporate this week after the House of Representatives passed the $819 billion spending bill along traditional party lines.

Partisan politics as usual.

With a mandate from a highly

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