Alcoa (AA) earnings are the traditional kick off of every quarterly earnings season. I don't really follow this name much simply because, while it's a basic material, aluminum is not exactly my favorite. But I'd like to show readers the reality behind the numbers, while the seals on CNBC were clapping and hooting and hollering about the "beat". I'd also like to show you a trend you will be seeing this earnings season, and the ones coming - higher input costs. And squeezed profit margins - we've been warning about this "era" coming since last summer. It's now here.First to the "great news" - Alcoa "beat" estimates - 66 cents versus 65 cents. So the seals cheer "better than expected". It's a joke. 90 days ago Alcoa was expected to do 77 cents, 60 days ago that was lowered ...

We should see Wall Street start off with a nice rally this morning, though I won't place a bet on where the day ends. Markets are terribly oversold and yesterday's action ended in a bullish reversal on high volume at support -- that's VERY bullish.And yet we seem to get more terrible news all the time ...BAD NEWS FOR THE CONSUMER ...

Auto sales plunge

June auto sales plunged, according to reports from the nation's major automakers, as Americans shunned pickups and SUVs in the face of record gas prices. General Motors reported that its U.S. sales fell 18% in June versus a year ago. Sales of GM's light trucks, which includes pickups, SUVs and so-called crossovers, tumbled 16%. GM's car sales dropped 21% in the month.

BAD NEWS ON INFLATION ...

Manufacturers struggle to overcome rising prices

NEW YORK - Each week, Ira Cooper opens

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I had a very interesting meeting with the largest athletic shoe company in the world, Yue Yuen Industrial (0551.HK). The soles of tennis shoes are made from 'synthetic' rubber, a combination of petroleum-based chemicals as well as rubber. Since the cost of oil is soaring, so is the cost of synthetic rubber. That doesn't mean Yue Yuen International is headed for trouble. It does mean that they'll need to improve productivity and/or raise prices to compensate for the raw materials increase. I did have a fascinating discussion with the CEO about the success of their manufacturing plant in Vietnam.

On this week's earnings preview I wrote this in regards to Deere (DE):Major ag equipment player Deere (DE) - I don't own the equipment stocks anymore; at some point the rising cost of steel, petrol products and the like will be hurting the bottom line unless they can pass all the costs along to farmers - over the next year if inflation does not abate this is the type of company who could see profit margins squeezed simply from the constant increase in input costs.Here are the results - looks like a good call with the stock down 8%. Sometimes a rising tide (agriculture boom) does lift all boats. But sometimes you need to think farther ahead than that - as Wayne Gretzky says - don't be where the puck is, be where it's going to be. ("I ...