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Billions in U.S. Bank Rescue Funds are Fueling Buyouts Worldwide – Instead of Lending at Home

Contrarian Profits (December 5th, 2008) Writes:

Bank of American Corp. (BAC), which is getting $15 billion from the U.S. government as part of the Treasury Department’s $250 billion “recapitalization” effort, is doubling its stake in state-owned China Construction Bank Corp., and will hold a 20% stake worth $24 billion in China’s second-largest lender when that deal is finalized.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC), which will get $7.7 billion from Treasury’s Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), is using that cash infusion to help finance its $5.2 billion buyout of embattled National City Corp. (NCC).

And U.S. Bancorp (USB), which received a $6.6 billion capital infusion from that same rescue package, has acquired two California lenders – Downey Savings & Loan Association, F.A., a subsidiary of Downey Financial Corp. (DSL), and PFF Bank & Trust, a subsidiary of PFF Bancorp Inc. (OTC: PFFB). U.S. Bank

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Consumer Credit: The Next Shoe To Drop?

Contrarian Profits (December 4th, 2008) Writes:

Consumer credit could be the next “aftershock” of this financial crisis, says Jason Simpkins. Banks have suffered big losses on mortgages, and are now looking to reduce their exposure to credit card debt. This could be the death knell for the American consumer, and deepen the US recession in 2009.

This from Money Morning:

U.S. consumers are already losing their jobs at an accelerating rate.

The same thing is now set to happen to their credit lines.

But with so many Americans already losing their main source of income – their jobs – at an ever-spiraling rate, will an economy that derives two-thirds of its power from consumer spending end up mired in its worst funk in decades because those same consumers are now losing their charge accounts?

Before you dismiss the possibility, consider this: The U.S. economy weakened across all regions since the middle of October as it became

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Fed Announces $800 Billion in Homeowner, Consumer and Small Business Aid

Contrarian Profits (November 26th, 2008) Writes:

The U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury Department announced yesterday (Tuesday) $800 billion worth of stimulus measures to rev up three primary engines of the U.S. economy – homebuyers, consumers and small businesses.

This newest economic infusion follows a $700 billion banking system bailout package that was unveiled in late October. At least half the cash has been injected directly into U.S. banks and insurance companies, firing off a flurry of takeover deals – with more expected to come. And it precedes an anticipated package being designed by the new economic team that’s been assembled by President-elect Barack Obama. That package is still in its formative stages, but estimates of its ultimate size range from $500 million to $1.2 billion.

The $800 billion package unveiled by the Fed and Treasury Department yesterday consisted of several parts.

In one statement, the Fed announced it would purchase as much as $500

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Federal Government Grants AIG a New Bailout Package

Money Morning (November 11th, 2008) Writes:
American International Group Inc. (AIG) got a $150 billion government rescue package – almost double the initial bailout deal of less than two months ago and the largest ever granted to a private U.S. company – as the ailing insurer continues to burn through its cash at an accelerating rate. The New York-based AIG will get $40 billion of new capital from the U.S. Treasury Department’s $700 billion bailout package, to help offset the damage wreaked by four consecutive quarterly losses, including a third-quarter deficit of $24.5 billion that the company announced yesterday (Monday), Bloomberg News reported. The U.S. Federal Reserve also is slashing an $85 billion loan to $60 billion, and is replacing a separate $37.8 billion loan to the insurance company with $52.5 billion in aid. These actions were taken by the Treasury Department and the Fed after it ...

For the U.S. Economy in the New Year, the Pain Will Precede the Promise

Shah Gilani (November 10th, 2008) Writes:
If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.” Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months. But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right – and I have every reason to believe that he will – then investors will be presented with the greatest investment ...
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Study of Great Depression Shows Postponed Foreclosures and Spikes in Mortgage Rates

Contrarian Profits (November 6th, 2008) Writes:

It was January 1934. The Great Depression was five years old – but still had another five years to run. The carnage was horrific: From 1929 to 1934, U.S. personal income plunged 44%, real output nosedived 30% and the unemployment rate soared to 25% of the American labor force.

With the nation’s economic landscape laid to waste, it should be no surprise that home foreclosures were soaring, too: Residential real-estate foreclosures doubled between 1926 and 1929 – before the Great Depression actually began. According to a new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the foreclosure rate jumped from 3.6 per 1,000 mortgages in 1926 to 13.3 in 1933. In that year, in fact, 1,000 home mortgages were being foreclosed each day.

By Jan 1, 1934, as many as half of all residential mortgages were delinquent, putting them at risk of foreclosure.

Clearly something had to be

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Credit Crisis Expert Says Proposed Plan to Bail Out Delinquent Homeowners May Face Too Many Problems to Succeed

Contrarian Profits (November 3rd, 2008) Writes:

A tentative Bush Administration plan aimed at keeping as many as three million homeowners who are behind on their mortgages from losing their houses will be difficult to administer, and could end up costing the country hundreds of billions of dollars more than the plan’s architects expect.

R. Shah Gilani, a retired hedge-fund manager and Money Morning contributing editor who is emerging as an expert on the worldwide financial meltdown, noted that the plan was apparently still that – a plan. Even so, he said that “any bailout plan that directly addresses foreclosures is political posturing that will ultimately be overwhelmed by inevitable economic realities.”

The New York Times carried the first reports of the Bush Administration’s new housing rescue new proposal yesterday (Thursday). According to the newspaper report, this program would be the most sweeping and direct government initiative aimed at home-loan borrowers since the financial

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Credit Crisis Expert Says Proposed Plan to Bail Out Delinquent Homeowners May Face Too Many Problems to Succeed

Contrarian Profits (November 3rd, 2008) Writes:

A tentative Bush Administration plan aimed at keeping as many as three million homeowners who are behind on their mortgages from losing their houses will be difficult to administer, and could end up costing the country hundreds of billions of dollars more than the plan’s architects expect.

R. Shah Gilani, a retired hedge-fund manager and Money Morning contributing editor who is emerging as an expert on the worldwide financial meltdown, noted that the plan was apparently still that – a plan. Even so, he said that “any bailout plan that directly addresses foreclosures is political posturing that will ultimately be overwhelmed by inevitable economic realities.”

The New York Times carried the first reports of the Bush Administration’s new housing rescue new proposal yesterday (Thursday). According to the newspaper report, this program would be the most sweeping and direct government initiative aimed at home-loan borrowers since the financial

...

Fears of Mortgage Rate Re-Sets May Fuel LIBOR Manipulation

Shah Gilani (October 24th, 2008) Writes:

It’s panic time for U.S. legislators, regulators, banks and lenders. More than $24 billion worth of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are expected to “re-set” to higher interest rates in November – boosting the likelihood of further home foreclosures.

And it gets worse. That increase in borrowing costs will spread to other parts of the global debt market, representing an across-the board threat to corporate, institutional and sovereign borrowers. If interest rates remain high and interbank lending remains tight, the credit crisis is not likely to recede.

This raises two key questions. Are desperate times prompting desperate measures? Is LIBOR being manipulated by banks that are trying to make their financial positions appear better than they really are?

If that’s the case, it’s one more reason the credit crisis will fester and spread undetected: The artificially low interbank lending rates removed a key “early warning” indicator, leading investors to believe the credit market was healthy

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Only the Strongest Companies Will Survive This Crisis

Contrarian Profits (October 21st, 2008) Writes:

Unprecendented government action is beginning to thaw credit markets. Commercial paper is being traded again. But this credit crisis is far from over, says William Patalon III. The trickle of finance will only reach top-grade companies. The weak will either go bankrupt or be swallowed up by their healthier rivals.

This from Money Morning:

Although bank-to-bank loan rates fell for the sixth-straight day yesterday (Monday) – decreasing fears that the corporate-lending market was going to seize up – a new reality has emerged: As the song says, “only the strong will survive.”

Strong companies will navigate the uncertainties of the markets in the months and years go come; weaker players will falter, fall into bankruptcy, and get gobbled up by larger, more-healthy companies.

“This is unequivocally, absolutely, positively” the new reality, says R. Shah Gilani, a retired hedge-fund manager and Money Morning contributing editor who has emerged as a top

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