Doug Hornig, senior prognosticator at The Casey Report, analyzes the alarming trend of U.S. federal debt and its future implications.

“I have always depended on the kindness of strangers,” said Blanche DuBois, in the final words of the play A Streetcar Named Desire. Well, don’t we all.

Many citizens probably still cling to the old saw that public debt doesn’t matter because “we owe it to ourselves.” Wrong. Debt always matters. And as for whom we owe it to, it is a lot of kind (or, at least, not yet unkind) strangers.

As recently as 1970, foreign holders of U.S. debt were essentially non-existent. But their slice of our obligation pie has steadily increased, especially over the past two decades, until now foreign governments and international investors hold about 35% of Treasuries, as the following chart reveals.

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Gimme fuel, gimme fire, gimme that which I desire,

Can’t fight the need for speed,

I’m loose, I’m clean, I’m burning lean and mean, and mean.

Ignite the open trail,

Excite, exhale, comin on, hot from hell, yeah hot from hell.

-Metallica “Fuel for Fire”

Where has all of the money gone? We know that the world should be running out of green ink any day now due to the Treasury printing money 24/7, but with all of this money coming into the economy we would have expected runaway inflation.  Up to now we have seen, for the first time in decades, steady deflation.  In fact as you can see in the chart below, since 3/1/09 YoY CPI has been negative. (click on chart to enlarge)

CPI 12-Month % Change

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With prices testing their record high of $1,033 an ounce set last year gold has again become the hot topic of conversation.

But while many analysts are focusing on threat of inflation – which could be a byproduct of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s reluctance to withdraw monetary stimulus – investors should really be watching China.

“In the post-financial crisis global economy, China is quickly becoming the proverbial ‘800-pound gorilla’ – the player that has to be courted, but that can’t be tamed,” said Money Morning Contributing Editor Peter Krauth.

In a recent article for Money Morning, Krauth said that he believes the stage has been set for gold to make a lasting run above $1,000 an ounce, in no small part because of China.

For the past six years China has quietly been stocking up on gold, boosting its holdings of the yellow metal to 1,054 metric tons from 400

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Doug Kass (TheStreet.com): Bearish arguments are roaring, September 14, 2009. In summary, the market has discounted favorable expectations (certainly against forecasts four months ago!) and seems more “certain” of a self-sustaining recovery cycle outcome. Reflecting the gravity and weight of so many inhibiting factors, I see a much broader range of possible outcomes and less certainty than some of the newly printed bullish market participants. The credit expansion of the last several decades has reversed, it will take time to reverse the damage to net worth and confidence, the consumer remains in a fragile state, corporations will make do with more productive but fewer personnel (job growth could continue to disappoint), there are no apparent drivers to replace the role of

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Currencies rally strong! China is upset with printing of dollars…The UN talks of a new currency…Unemployment rate rises to 9.7% And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long Holiday Weekend, that was quite good for yours truly! A great tailgate, a great Missouri Tigers victory, 3 of 4 for the Cardinals, a great end of summer bar-b-que at the Butler House, and a

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At the end of the second quarter, 4.3% of all residential mortgages were in some part of the foreclosure process, up from 3.85% at the end of the first quarter and 2.75% a year ago. In addition, on a seasonally adjusted basis, 9.24% of all mortgages were delinquent (behind by at least one payment), up from 9.12% at the end of March, and just 6.41% at the end of June 2008. Both were records since the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) started keeping track back in 1972. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, the delinquency rate was not quite as bad at 8.86%, but still a record. That means that 13.16% of all residential mortgages (NSA basis) are in trouble. With about 51 million houses with mortgages in the country, that means 6.71 million bad mortgages out there. With the number of people out of work still rising, the problem is ...

Obama defends his policies…Commodity currencies should outperform…Global Power Shift Index…And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And happy Thursday to everyone! Hope everyone made it through the ‘hump day’ with no worries. We started the morning here with rainshowers, but it ended up being a beautiful afternoon and evening. Currency markets were similar to the weather here, as most currencies started Wednesday in the loss column vs. the US$, but rallied as the day progressed. The dollar had strengthened over the past couple of days due to ’safe haven’ demand; but a surprisingly strong durable goods number (ex autos) combined with an ‘all clear’ signal from President Barack Obama had investors moving back into riskier assets. The commodity based currencies also got a boost as China signaled it would maintain an accommodative policy, easing speculation that the Bank of China would try to rein in bank lending. Lots to cover today, so

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China turns it up another notch… now “concerned about the security” of U.S. investments… Chris Mayer tells the “story of today’s economy”… Mainstream celebrates latest home price index… our perceptive on the housing “recovery”… Three market sectors currently detached from reality… The truth emerges… why Ben Bernanke really bailed out Wall Street…

Here it comes, slowly but surely: “We sincerely hope the U.S. fiscal deficit will be reduced, year after year,” China’s Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said overnight after talks with Treasury Secretary Geithner. Could he lay it out any more clearly than this? “The Chinese government is a responsible government, and first and foremost our responsibility is the Chinese people, so of course we are concerned about the security of the Chinese assets.”

The Chinese now own over $801 billion in U.S. debt, nearly double their holdings at the start of 2007 and by far the world’s largest

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Here it comes, slowly but surely: “We sincerely hope the U.S. fiscal deficit will be reduced, year after year,” China’s Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said overnight after talks with Treasury Secretary Geithner. Could he lay it out any more clearly than this?

“The Chinese government is a responsible government, and first and foremost our responsibility is the Chinese people, so of course we are concerned about the security of the Chinese assets.”

The Chinese now own over $801 billion in U.S. debt, nearly double their holdings at the start of 2007 and by far the world’s largest stash of American paper.

“We are committed,” responded Tim Geithner, “to taking measures to maintaining greater personal saving and to reducing the federal deficit to a sustainable level by 2013.” We have no idea what he might mean by that… the CBO still projects a $1.8 trillion budget deficit this year, $1.4

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In addition to testifying before Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke today tried to explain the Fed's plans and options directly to the public through an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. Here I provide some background on what Bernanke's talking about in terms of an "exit strategy" for the Fed, and offer some thoughts on his remarks.

The basic power of the Fed derives from its ability to create money, which it can use to buy assets or extend loans. We can summarize the Fed's actions in terms of either the asset side of its balance sheet (the assets and loans it holds), or the liabilities side (the money or other obligations it has created). Let's start with the asset side. Up until January of 2008, by far the most important assets held by the Fed were short-term Treasury bills. As last year wore

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