In September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.6% on a headline basis, while excluding food and energy it was down 0.1% for the month. This is in fairly distinct contrast to August, where the PPI rose 1.7% on a headline basis and 0.2% for the core. Year over year, producer prices for Finished goods are down 4.8%. In August, they were down 4.3% year over year. These numbers, along with the low readings from the CPI last week (up 0.2% on both headline and core for the month, headline down 1.3% year over year with core up 1.5%) make it clear that the inflation dragon is sleeping. The big swing factor was energy, which fell 2.4% on the month after an 8.0% surge in August. That is not likely to last into October given the recent strength in both oil and natural gas prices. Looking farther ...

This morning, Santarus, Inc. (SNTS) entered into a licensing agreement with Norgine B.V., a European specialty pharmaceutical company. Under the licensing agreement, Norgine has been granted exclusive rights for the development, manufacture and commercialization of prescription immediate-release Zegerid products incorporating the proton pump inhibitor (PPI) omeprazole in combination with one or more buffering agents in specified markets in Western, Central and Eastern Europe. As per the terms of the agreement, Santarus will receive an upfront fee of $2.5 million. Moreover, Santarus will be entitled to receive up to $10 million in milestone payments based on the achievement of certain regulatory events, subject to certain reductions based on actual out-of pocket costs incurred by Norgine for the product. Santarus will also receive tiered royalties in the mid- to high-teens range on net sales of any products sold under the agreement. Zegerid is Santarus’ flagship product, which has ...

Of the three major economic reports released today (see also: "Increasing Starts - NOT Good News" and "Slack in the Industrials System"), the report on producer prices was by far the best news. Overall, producer prices for finished goods increased at a rate of just 0.2%. A big 2.9% increase for Energy was offset by a 1.6% decline in finished food prices. This left the change in core (ex food and energy) producer prices down 0.1%. The scare about outright deflation, which looked very possible last fall when the overall PPI fell 2.6%, 2.7% and 1.8% in October through December, has passed. On the other hand, inflation has not started to rear its ugly head. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices are still accelerating to the downside, now at -5.0% vs. 3.7% in April and 3.5% in May. However, that is due to very large increases ...

Aspire Misery Index for the Week Ended February 20, 2009

February 21, 2009 ndash; Another dismal week in the books, with the broader markets selling off again amidst mounting concerns that Washington may be in over its head in trying to stem the negative influences on the economy and doubts about whether the stimulus plan will do the trick. It is increasingly looking like nationalization of at some banks may be on tap. The White House insists this is not the case ndash; but it may not have a choice.

The DJIA fell 479.96 this week, or 6.1%. On the year to date, the DJIA is down 1,406.58, or 16%. With expectations that unemployment is going to keep rising, companies reigning in the cash reserves and shelving any plans for expansion and growth, and no indication that the credit markets are loosening up, a second half turnaround looks all but unlikely. …

The CRB Index: What Commodities Can Tell Investors About Stocks

by Dr. Scott Brown, Advisory Panelist

In 1933 and 1934, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was doing the same thing Obama is working to do today – reduce the corruption in our capital markets by increasing transparency and regulation.

Most investors know that the SEC and our key securities laws were enacted in those years…

Few know that in 1934, at the request of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Bureau of Labor Statistics began the computation of a daily commodity price index, using quotations for sensitive commodities.

The Commodities Research Bureau Index (the CRB Index) let’s you see what the commodity markets are doing, just like the S&P 500 does for stocks.

For many investors who focus on stocks, the thought of following a commodities index doesn’t intrigue. And it’s unfortunate…

The CRB Index – Very Different From the S&P 500

The CRB

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This article is a reprint of my 7 August 2008 RealMoney column.

Crown Holdings CCK - Annual Report) looks to me like the type of boring stock Peter Lynch would love. The company’s primary products include steel and aluminum cans for food, beverage, household and other consumer products and metal caps and closures.

Cans and bottle caps certainly don’t sound particularly glamorous. A glance at the recent producer price index report, however, shows that this industry has been steadily gaining pricing power over the last several years.

Year/Year Change in PPI Index for Fruit and Vegetable Canning Industry Click here for larger image. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

You may be surprised by how much innovation actually occurs in the business. The company highlights its research and development activities, including the SuperEnd beverage can

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by Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen Executive Summary Thailand's economy grew at 4.8 percent in 2007. Despite a number of factors affecting public sentiment - the political uncertainties, the imposition of capital controls in December 2006 (subsequently removed in March 2008), and the proposed amendments to the Foreign Business Act - net exports continued to provide the main support for growth while domestic demand has continued to remain weak. The Thai economy is expected to slow slightly in the second half of 2008, and then pick up speed again in 2009 as long as global energy prices continue to fall back somewhat from their June 2008 highs. Headline inflation had been on a downward path after peaking in mid-2006, but started to pick up in Q4 2007 on the back of escalating energy prices, and reached an annual rate of 9.2 percent in July. Core inflation has been lower, but has followed a similar trajectory, ...

This is my first comment since Thursday given travel and lengthy meetings. Friday’s rally action had me stumped I’ll admit since it didn’t seem based on anything substantial. All it served to do was to keep us primarily on the sidelines.

Today we got a hot PPI at 1.4% which was dismissed early as the Kool Aid drinker’s focused on the “core rate” ex-food and energy up a “mild” .2%. But, how much more of these silly core rate numbers investors can swallow is beyond any thoughtful consideration. Anyway later in the day reality hit home as Goldman Sachs issued a downbeat assessment on financials ex-themselves naturally.

Volume was on the light side while breadth was as negative as you might expect.

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Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob’s Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

A few moments ago I sold all of my shares of ResMed (RMD), which amounted to 150 shares, at $38.46.  These shares were purchased 2/4/05 at a cost basis of $29.87 giving me a long-term gain of $8.59 or  28.8% on these shares.

This sale brings me down to my ‘minimum’ portfolio size of 5 positions.  I have set my maximum at 20 positions and my minimum at 5.  What this means is that with this sale, as before, since it is on ‘bad news’, which means selling on a defensive …

On Tuesday, Jim Cramer said it was “time to ring the register” and sell. But what railroad stock was he BULLISH on?

He also remains bullish on rails like Union Pacific (UNP) and CSX (CSX) although he’d still take some profits there “just as a prudence method.”

Railroads were one of the sectors I highlighted yesterday based on strong pricing evidenced by the PPI report. However, while CSX and UNP both have high price momentum, their its free cash flow and return potential score poorly based on the models I use.

More interesting in my opinion is railcar leasing company GATX (GMT), based on its strong earnings momentum and neutral scores on most other measures.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

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