Key Points: Urea prices fell by more than $70 in late September A strike is helping to support potash prices Some analysts are raising 2009 earnings forecasts Highlighted stocks include AGU, CF, MOS, POT and TRA

Fears that fertilizer companies could be losing pricing power sent their shares tumbling late last week.

The primary cause was a sharp drop in urea prices. A report published last Thursday on Farm Futures revealed a $70 decline in Black Sea prices over the previous 2 weeks. (Ammonia prices were weaker as well.)

Urea is a key ingredient used in fertilizer. Traders are concerned that the recent drop is an early signal of slipping demand for fertilizer. Any weakness would call into question fourth-quarter and 2009 profit forecasts for Agrium (AGU), CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS), Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) and Terra Industries (TRA).

It is possible that some farmers are choosing

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After a month long sell-off that saw Mosaic Company (MOS), Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT), and Monsanto Company (MON) dip from 4-15%, the agricultural chemical companies have rebounded to new highs within the last two weeks. Monsanto is still close to a new high with Mosaic and Potash striking new highs on Wednesday. Corn continues to rally which makes the fertilizers and the seeds required for crop production that much more demanded. Corn is at $7, a new high and the use of crops for fuel is making agriculture follow crude oil in a very strong rally. I like Potash the best of ...

I was recently interviewed by Mert Erkal (Search for Blogging) for the April 2008 edition of Bloghology. The questions and answers are republished below.

Mert Erkal: Prieur, please tell us about an investment professional’s life especially when alarm bells are ringing for global economy.

Prieur du Plessis: The investment environment is notoriously dynamic (or, perhaps, volatile) in the sense that different political, economic and a myriad other variables are forever changing and influencing the course of financial markets – sometimes irrationally, at least on the face of it.

An investor’s unique “investment personality” plays an important role in the way he/she copes with

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After clearing the bogey at S&P 1405 at last in the previous week, the index has now pulled back to that level and for now bounced off it... hence old "resistance" now becomes new "support". It will be interesting to see if this holds but I expect it to do so for now. Some other thoughts As I've said in the weekly round up, the "strong dollar" fantasies have usually lasted 5-10 days or so... it was nearing midnight. With crude north of $120 and the dollar returning to its rightful place as the junk of the world, we might be done already. This happens like clockwork now almost every 6-8 weeks. As I wrote in detail last week, the fundamental issues facing our country do not allow for a stronger dollar... we continue massive deficit spending and we print money like mad to solve our problems. ...

S&P has tried and failed to overcome the 1400 level consistently over the last couple of months. Today, it overcame 1400 for a bit only to fall back. in fact, as I write this, the rally that has lasted most of the day has completely evaporated and S&P is now lower on the day. For the last week, I have looked at my holdings again and again wondering if I should sell my long positions or trim down. Many of my stocks have been steady and forming nice bottoms or bases (Omniture, Marchex) and some have just been going up at any sign of a broader market rally. Visa, Potash, RIMM, Apple and Nintendo have all weathered the pull backs exceptionally well and I am torn whether to hold on and ride out the bear or to sell and buy at lower levels. But then I have never been good ...

Potash (POT) reported a blow-out quarter today, beating estimates by a mile. Earnings tripled over last year and they also raised guidance. The stock has pulled back from a recent high of around $215 to $195 simply because it had run up over 100% since Jan 22nd of this year. The company upped their guidance and it doesn’t look like demand is waning. I believe this weakness is a good reason to buy some Potash, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the stock pulls down to the $175 mark, where you should consider buying more.

Similarly, Mosaic (MOS) has seen tremendous growth in their business and the stock, which was at $60 in November of last year, is down from a recent high of around $140 and trading today in the low $120’s. This 11% decline is a grea opportunity to open a position and buy if it …

We have 5 major agriculture names reporting today - POT, CF, BG, TNH, CNH - all components of the agriculture ETF Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) [Sep 17: This MOO For You? An ETF to Play the Global Agriculture Boom]

I’ll touch on 3 of the 4 that reported this morning; due to some intracompany relationship issues with TRA I don’t bother with TNH (Terra Nitrogen). CF Industries (CF) reports after the bell.

First, there are no surprises here in Potash (POT) - we expected a huge quarter with increased guidance. We got it. The question is what is already built into the stock. Everyone already expected this; the stocks need to take a break sooner rather than later after a huge run. I have my lowest allocation to this group since day 1 of the fund but I will be adding materially on dips (which I believe to be imminent). …