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Recession Dating: Some People Are Going to Be Surprised
Menzie Chinn (December 2nd, 2008) Writes:
The typical Econbrowser reader might not be surprised at the NBER decision -- but some others will. From a May 2008 WSJ article:
"The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession," Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear told a meeting of editors and reporters from the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires.
...
"I would be very surprised if the NBER, looking back at this period, would date this as a recession," Mr. Lazear said. There are even indications that revised first-quarter estimates would be slightly stronger than 0.6%. "The optimists seem to have been closer to right on that than the pessimists," he said.
Just to reiterate, that quote is from May 2008.
Here's a picture of GDP and gross domestic income (as suggested by Jim in this post, and noted in the BCDC announcement).
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