Mixed bag o’ data…  Trading theme in place…  Election tomorrow…  Consumer Spending collapses! And Now… Today’s Pfennig! On Friday, we saw more and more of the same trading theme, and in the overnight markets last night, more and more of it again! And Carry Trades are back for the moment anyway, as stocks rebounded late in the week to end the month with a brighter outlook than they had earlier in the month. But, in my view from the cheap seats, this stock rebound is much like what they call in the markets, a dead cat bounce, (OK no animals were hurt here!) which means… That stocks are going nowhere, but bounces can

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Fed cuts rates 50 BPS!…  Currencies rally Big!…  3rd QTR GDP to go negative?…  I.O.U.S.A. … And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! It certainly was a Tub Thumpin’ Wednesday for the currencies, foreign stocks, commodities, and the Philadelphia Phillies! This by no means that the deep dense fog that has hung over the markets for 3 months has lifted for good… It did, however, lift for one day, and what a day it was!

Oh, and the Fed did indeedly do cut their Fed Funds rate to 1%, which works out great since Fed Funds had been trading at 1% anyway! I had a reported from Dow Jones call me a few minutes after the rate cut and ask me my opinion on what the dollar was doing, which at the time was rallying back a bit… I said it looked like a classic case

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U.S. stocks soar!  Currencies rally!  Consumer Confidence at an all-time low!  Getting off the bench! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Well… The trading theme remained in place yesterday, but this time it was reversed. For those of you new to class, or any of you who have been playing horse hooky, the trading theme that has gripped the markets since August is: The deeper, darker, and more dangerous the U.S. economy and financial meltdown, including the credit market’s locked status, the dollar gets bought… If there is any sign of light to all this mess, the dollar gets sold, for whenever the markets get their minds off the mess, they are reminded of awful fundamentals for the dollar.

So…

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by Edward Hugh: Barcelona Yesterday, the Ukraine received a USD16.5bn loan from the IMF and the IMF at the same time said that it would agree with the Hungarian government on a rescue package in the coming days. Under normally circumstances this would be good news for CEE assets. However, it seems like the markets are totally giving up on CEE. This morning the Hungarian stock markets have dropped more than 10% despite the promise of an IMF package. ......it is worrying that the CEE markets continue to sell-off despite IMF’s clear commitment to support the region’s markets and economies. One might in fact see the lack of positive response to IMF’s rescue packages for Hungary and the Ukraine as an indication that these packages are in fact making the markets even more nervous that something “is seriously wrong in CEE”. Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst Danske Bank, CEE: Markets fail to respond ...

Carry Trade Depth…  RBA intervenes…  Oil weighs on the loonie… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Well… As I look at the currency screens this morning, I see that nothing has changed… The Trading theme I left you with is still in place, as the more deeper, darker, dangerous outlook for the U.S. becomes, the more the dollar gets bought… Things look better, and the dollar will get sold… The dollar has become the new Japanese yen!

So, keeping the trading theme in mind… Stocks around the world are getting sold in the overnight markets, and that has the U.S. stock market on the teeter totter again this morning… Things are looking darker, LIBOR is inching back up, and the

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Credit fears ease…  Chuck’s thoughts from the road… India cuts rates… China growth slows, but is still 9%… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day…And welcome to what should be another volatile week in the markets. Credit worries eased somewhat over the weekend, which helped push money back into the higher yielding currencies. Today Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will head to Congress to share his view on the economy. Should make for a pretty interesting day of trading. Hope you are sitting down and holding on, it looks like we are going to take another lap on the currency roller coaster!

The yen fell over the weekend as investors began moving funds back into the higher yielding currencies of Brazil, Mexico, New Zealand and Australia. I won’t go into the whole explanation of the carry trade again, but suffice it to say that these moves haven’t proven to have much staying

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Good day…These dramatic swings in the markets are becoming so common place that a move of 400 pts by the Dow doesn’t really garner much notice. After all, in the past five days, the Dow Jones average has had a trading range of almost 2,000 points, but after five dramatic days the stock market is trading almost exactly where it was a week ago.

And the volatility in the equity markets has carried over to the currency markets, where we continued the roller coaster ride which began a few weeks ago.

Yesterday, the dollar began the day with a strong move up in early European trading. But a plethora of bad data released here in the US caused the greenback to reverse course, and it wiped out all of its earlier gains. But the bargain hunting rally in the stock market during the afternoon pulled the dollar along with it, and

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Yen trades to 98!  Carry Trades unwinding hurt high yielders...  Gold rallies back to $900!  Central Bank rate cuts.... And Now... Today's Pfennig!

Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Folks... The wheels, what was left of them, are really coming off this economy. It's a sad sight to see, but it's happening nonetheless, and there's no bailout, stimulus check, mortgage bill, truck loads of money supply, or whatever, that's going to stop this recession bus.. Memo to Paulson and Bernanke... Don't throw yourself under this recession bus...

Bailout package is voted down! Biggest one day point drop for the DOW! Dollar rallies hard... Carry trades unwind... Again! And Now... Today's Pfennig!