The currencies rally back! …  The risk takers are back! …  Mixed bag of economic reports…  A “cross thing” for sterling… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Well, front and center this morning is a rally in the currencies that began yesterday mid-morning, and has carried through the Asian and European markets. I’d tell you why the euro is 2.5 figures above yesterday morning’s level, but you’d laugh at me… No wait! That’s what you’re supposed to

The dollar bounces!  ISM was simply awful!  Oil rallies…  Jobs Jamboree this Friday… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Although, technically, it’s still the Christmas season (it doesn’t end until Jan. 11), the Santa rally that pushed the euro to 1.45, has gone away, and we’re on to the next phase, which I drew out for you over a week ago… And that is… The Obama bounce… This is something we’ll have to deal with for the next few months. It all began with a huge stock rally on Friday, and that won’t be the last one during the Obama bounce.

The dollar is kicking up its heels once again, and this is to be expected during this Obama

Euro gains, then loses, then gains…  Inflation and Commodities…  The euro turns 10!  Risk Aversion remains but is waning… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Remember those Wild Swings I talked about yesterday? The Wild Swings that could be a result of thin volumes in this the second week of Christmas. Well… We witnessed them in earnest yesterday! As I signed off yesterday, I told you that the euro had rallied 2 whole figures to 1.43 and change. Well, that rally dissipated throughout the morning, and by late in the day the single unit was 1.39 and change… WOW! Now that’s a Wild Swing!

You can point to profit taking as the reason for the move,

Gaza bombing has dollar on the run…  More proof we’re turning Japanese…  Adding to the debt burden…  What will deflation do for the dollar? And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

The currencies had a split personality while I was gone too… At first, they rallied like there was no tomorrow, but then sold off, and then range traded. So, we’ll finish the year on a down note for most of the currencies, but knowing all too well that the markets are beginning to realize that the debts the U.S. is chalking up are not going to go away, and in fact they’re just going to get worse, and that spells bad times for the dollar… Eventually…

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Japan dominates news wires…  US retail sales to drop… Russia devalues the ruble again…  And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Most of the markets were closed yesterday, and trading was very light on Christmas eve. The Asian markets were open, and the dollar did sell off a bit vs. most of the major currencies with the one exception being the Japanese yen.

Unless we see a big bounce today, the yen will end the day with the first weekly loss vs. the US$ in two months. With a majority of markets closed, most news stories centered around the Japanese yen. Japanese industrial production fell the most in 55 years as reported on Wednesday. Factory output plunged 8.1% from October, more than 6.8% estimated by economists. Other data released in Japan showed the jobless rate climbed to 3.9% from 3.7%, and household spending slid .5%, a ninth drop.

Markets are now counting on the

US data may wake up the markets… Toyota reports a loss…  NZD falls, AUD gains… Will the Rupee shine in 2009?… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… The currency markets remained in a tight range through the day yesterday with no movement from the majors currencies vs. the US$. Japan has a public holiday today, so trading this afternoon will be very quiet. Jennifer, who is doing all of our currency trading while Chuck is out, let me know that the trading desks were extremely quiet yesterday afternoon. But the markets may wake up a bit this morning, as we wait for data on 3rd quarter growth in the US.

GDP is expected to have fallen .5% in the 3rd quarter, and

Currency markets stabilize (for now)…  Data packed holiday shortened week…  China cuts rates… Indian rupee falls… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day…The dollar settled in at the slightly higher levels it reached Friday morning and is trading in a narrow range heading into a holiday shortened week. Trade desks across the globe will be mostly staffed by the backups as the big bosses take Christmas week off. Volume will likely be lighter, which can sometimes lead to an increase in volatility.

The data calendar is empty today, but chock full tomorrow and Christmas eve. Markets will be closed on Christmas day, and most will be closed again on the day following Christmas (known as boxing day). GDP, Personal Consumption, U of Michigan consume

Paulson heads back to congress…  BOJ cuts rates to below the US…  China to continue increasing the value of the Renminbi… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… The currencies took a breather overnight as the dollar bounced back up. When we left last night, the Euro was still holding above $1.42, but the single unit dropped 3 cents overnight and is now hovering around the $1.39 level. This move back down was to be expected, and serves as an excellent opportunity for investors who were afraid they had missed out on getting back into the currency market.

I have searched the news wires this morning and can’t find any good reasons for the dollar’s turn around other than it had simply gone too far too fast. Mike Meyer and I were talking about this yesterday morning, as we were looking at the trading screens in amazement. The dollar’s move down over

The Fed fires its last bullet…  Euro breaks back above $1.40…  AUD and NZD rally…  And Now… Today’s Pfennig!Good day… The ‘noise’ from the street which I wrote about yesterday turned out to be correct, as the FOMC cut 75 basis points to put the Fed Funds target at .25%. The US now has the lowest interest rates in the industrialized world, even below those in Japan. The dollar lost ground quickly after the announcement and continued to fall overnight to a 13 year low vs the yen and the weakest vs. the Euro in 4 months.

With both Chuck and Frank out of the office, I fielded the calls from reporters after the FOMC cut, and the most popular question asked was what the near zero interest rates would mean for the man on the street. Well it was great news for those on Wall Street, but I told the

A Santa Rally for the currencies?…  Waiting for the FOMC…  AUD and NZD rally…  China to try and keep growth above 8%… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day…It was actually a Great day for the currencies yesterday as the dollar index dropped another full point. The Euro moved past $1.35 and then blew through $1.36 to end the day over $1.37. And the Euro wasn’t even the best performer, as the New Zealand dollar rallied over 2.1% vs. the US$ to take the title of best performing currency against the greenback. The South African rand was the only currency turning in a negative performance yesterday with the other commodity driven currencies of Norway and Brazil just barely holding their ground vs. the US$.

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