Before we get to the story let me refresh my thoughts... first I said this was a potential threat a few times, most recently in [Apr 23: Potash hits $1000 on Spot Market] I wrote If Western governments have any moral backbone they will at least jawbone pulling biofuel subsidies... this would cause backlash reaction in fertilizer even though biofuels are just a small piece of the puzzle. (again this is a minor risk at this point, especially with US elections coming but maybe Europe will react first?) While the biofuel situation is not the major driving factor of agflation that does not matter - perception is everything and go back to point (b) a lot of new investors to a hot sector who know little about the long term situation and just are going by sound bites "rice riots" "fertilizer is hot" "Neil Cavuto even likes fertilizer" ...