...basically, it seems to me, we're all flying blind. The markets are spiraling down, and our leading experts don't have much of a clue as to what to do.

Given that, one has to welcome the expected appointment to senior positions in the Obama administration of economists like Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Jason Furman, Peter Orszag, and Goolsbee himself. They're sober and competent people who know we face a real crisis -- and who, importantly, may be more willing than many of their colleagues to adjust their thinking early and often.

Indeed, one hopes they're not too invested in the findings of the economics profession of which they're such distinguished products -- because one suspects many of the conventional answers of that profession aren’t much applicable to the current situation. After all, wasn't it excessive confidence in complex economic models and sophisticated financial instruments on the part of people well educated in modern economics that helped get us into the current mess?

So I hope the best and the brightest who will be joining the new president will at least entertain the possibility that a lot of what they think they know is wrong. I trust they'll remember that successful economic policies in the past have pulled together elements from unlikely sources, and that they're as likely to find wisdom from reading political economists like Friedrich Hayek or Joseph Schumpeter, or Keynes himself, as from poring over the latest academic paper in a peer-refereed economics journal.

My puzzlement is driven by several assertions.

• Are our economic leaders flying blind?
• Were the economists overly enamored of complex economic models?
• Were the economists overly confident in sophisticated financial instruments?
• Is it as likely to find wisdom from Hayek or Schumpeter as in the latest academic paper?

On the first point, I think Kristol is on the most solid ground. So much of what has happened has been unprecedent in terms of institutions, although as Markus Brunnermeier has pointed out, the general outlines are remarkably similar to banking crises of the past. So, here I think reasonable people can certainly disagree whether it's ignorance, or failure to agree between Fed and the Bush Administration and components thereof.

What about complex models? First ask what exactly constitutes a complex model? Is Kristol alluding to models involving algebra? Or calculus? Or lots of equations? I think one could make the argument that the models weren't complex enough to capture important effects (asymmetric information, agency costs, etc.) despite the complexity along other dimensions.

Were economists overly confident in sophisticated financial instruments? Here I think it might be useful to discriminate between economists that work in the financial world, and those that work in academia. From the former group, I always heard a lot about "risk management" and sophisticated statistical models to price derivatives. From the latter, I heard a lot more skepticism, perhaps borne of ignorance. So, Kristol might be right, but I suspect his views are deeply influenced by the sample of economists he talked to.

By the way, I won't say I saw the full enormity of the leveraging problem, but at least I can truthfully say I was suspicious of the free lunch aspects of the net borrowing binge of the past decade. From my August 2005 Council on Foreign Relations report:

Although the likelihood of a "disorderly adjustment," is small,37 the potential consequences are so troubling that the possibility of economic disruption cannot be ignored. In addition to the threat of rising unemployment and declining income, sharp movements in asset prices and interest rates could also threaten the stability of the financial system. In the past, policymakers have been able to contain the threats of systemic crises, such as the crisis of Long Term Capital Management in 1998. That event was at least partly attributable to bets on interest rates movements that did not meet expectations. Markets for making bets are much larger and diverse than they were seven years ago. Some are very new and remain untested. The question is whether they are up to the task of distributing risks when low probability events occur.38 This open question should in itself give some additional weight to the case for action now, to avoid putting the world economy in the position of finding out the answer.

I'm confident it's quite easy to dig up plenty of quotes from other economists who were nervous.

Finally, the assertion that really caught my attention: That the likelihood of finding useful nuggets of economic wisdom in Schumpeter and Hayek is equal to that of finding it in the latest article in peer reviewed journals (I get the feeling he's making a perjorative remark about peer reviewed journals, but I'll let that slide).

Why do I think this is odd? Well, because the statement identifies modern economics as distinct from the great thinkers of the past. But in fact many of the works in the "peer reviewed journals" are not orthogonal to the works of the past, but like many other intellectual endeavors, based upon them. Open up the JPE or the QJE (or better yet, the NBER Working Paper series, and there are plenty allusions to "the greats", and ideas like "creative destruction". That being said, just like there has been plenty of thinking in political science since Machiavelli and The Prince (you'll get the allusion if you've read Dani Rodrik's take on Kristol's economics acumen), there's been a lot of insight developed in economics over the past hundred years. In this respect, the admonition to look backward sound good, but is less profound that it appears at first glance.

MarketWatch reports:

President-elect Barack Obama tapped former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to run a new White House advisory board tasked with offering independent advice about how to stage an economic recovery. Obama named the 81-year-old Volcker to head the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board....

The board is modeled on the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board that gave President Dwight Eisenhower independent opinions on intelligence issues. Austan Goolsbee, another key Obama adviser, will serve as the economic board's staff director and chief economist.

Volcker can be single-handedly credited with ending the great inflation of the 1970s, and has been critical of the unorthodox steps that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has taken to address our current challenges. Although I share some of Volcker's concerns, it is not clear to me what specifically Volcker would propose to do instead. Certainly the policy for which he is famous and justly praised-- stopping inflation at all costs-- is seriously contraindicated at a time when we just saw the biggest recorded monthly drop in the CPI. A policy of real toughness in dealing with failed financial institutions has some appeal to me, and Volcker may be the sort of person who could insist on that, if given some real power. But is that what Volcker and Obama have in mind?

Chicago Professor Austan Goolsbee is very bright and certainly has my respect. Given his important role in the campaign, it's hardly a surprise that his voice will play a major role in shaping economic policy. But Time's Justin Fox worries about "economic-adviser gridlock", and David Cho and Alec MacGillis warn in the Washington Post of the

central leadership challenge the president-elect will face: how to manage a stable packed with big brains and bigger personalities -- and how to make decisions when those high-powered experts disagree.

There was already some inherent ambiguity and conflict as to what the respective contributions and roles would be for Larry Summers at the National Economic Council, Christina Romer at the Council of Economic Advisors, Tim Geithner at the Treasury, and Peter Orszag at the Office of Management and Budget. Greg Mankiw shares some insights from his experience inside the White House. But based on my knowledge of those four, I could imagine them working together very effectively.

What I'm less clear about is how creating yet another separate advisory group is going to facilitate that. Fortunately Justin Fox has come up with a solution to the potential problem: Obama just needs to appoint Jason Furman to run the "Coordinating Council of Economic Advice-Givers".

Technorati Tags: macroeconomics, economics, Paul Volcker

I said out loud to the family, “This is interesting news! Bloomberg.com says, ‘The U.S. government’s borrowing needs will almost double to $2 trillion this fiscal year, prompting the Treasury to revive three-year notes and hold more frequent sales of 10- and 30-year debt, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS)’”

I forced a wooden smile onto my face as I stood up and slowly - so as not to draw attention to myself - started walking towards the…

• American retirement plans have lost as much as $2 trillion, or 20% of their value, in the past 15 months, Peter Orszag, head of the Congressional Budget Office estimated yesterday (Tuesday). "Some people will delay their retirement. In particular, those on the verge of retirement may decide they can no longer afford to retire and will continue working," Orszag said.

• EBay Inc. (EBAY) said yesterday (Tuesday) that it will cut 10% of its work force and spend $1.3 billion to buy online payment and classified companies, in an effort to offset a slowdown in its web auctions business. The reduction is expected to incur restructuring charges of about $70 million to $80 million, but then save $150 million annually.

• Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) yesterday (Tuesday) announced it will pay $62 million to 32 states and Washington D.C. to resolve an investigation into its marketing practices, The Associated Press reported. Lilly was accused of marketing its top-selling drug Zyprexa for off-label uses and inadequately disclosing the drug’s side effects to health care providers.

• Morgan Stanley (MS) and Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (ADR: MTU) have received regulatory approval for the Tokyo-based bank’s $9 billion investment in the Wall Street firm. The U.S. Federal Reserve and other global regulators approved the deal, MarketWatch reported. Morgan Stanley also received antitrust approval from the U.S. government.

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a worldwide economic slowdown in a report prepared for a Group of Seven meeting. “The global economy is entering a major downturn,” the IMF said in the report, dated Oct. 4 and obtained by Bloomberg News. “Many advanced economies are now close to recession, while emerging economies are also slowing rapidly.”

• Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) will likely buy the bulk of Wachovia Corp. (WB) deposits, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed source. Citigroup Inc. (C) is expected to get 20% - 25% of Wachovia’s total deposits, with the remainder going to Wells Fargo, the news service reported, but cautioned that talks are ongoing and no deal has been finalized.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Wednesday, October 8th, 2008