by James Hamilton As noted by Calculated Risk, global warming or no, the spring selling season for new homes never seemed to arrive this year. There is a strong seasonal component to new home sales. In a typical year, the number of homes sold each month in March through May would be 40% higher than in December. Nine years out of 10, the rate would be at least 20% higher. This year? Only 9%. And December 2007 was itself down 38% from December 2006 and down 50% from December 2005. Why no spring? This graph from Peter Hooper may have something to do with it. Source: Hooper (2008) Technorati Tags: macroeconomics, housing, recession, economics

Article Source: Consumers say they're gloomy, but why are they still spending? A surprising report from the Commerce Department today, which indicated that seasonally adjusted nominal sales for retail trade and food services were 1% higher in May compared with April. The new estimates of March and April sales (in red in the figure below) were also revised substantially up from the previous (blue) estimates that had been reported last month. Source: ALFRED Although a 1% monthly gain would translate into a 12% annual rate if maintained, the newly revised April numbers are still barely above the values last November in nominal terms. Calculated Risk notes that the year-on-year comparisons, when adjusted using an anticipated PCE deflator, remain negative even with the strong new estimates. Source: Calculated Risk The latest numbers ...