If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.” Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months. But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right – and I have every reason to believe that he will – then investors will be presented with the greatest investment ...

[This is the eighth installment of an ongoing series in which Shah Gilani breaks down the credit crisis for readers.] In the mid-80s, I ran a private partnership – call it a hedge fund – from the floor of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Inc. (CBOE). I was an independent market maker, meaning I could walk into any trading pit on the floor and trade any options and any stocks. More often than not, one of my principal trading plans was to play the crowd. My approach was to walk into the pit and chat up the crowd. My intention was to gauge whether the other market makers and locals were net long (bullish) or net short (bearish). Most of the locals are independents and not extremely well capitalized. But I was. If I gauged the locals to be bullish, ...

The commercial paper market is the thoroughfare where Wall Street merges into Main Street. Corporations, finance companies and banks rely on Main Street investors for the cash they deposit into money-market funds and other short-term investment vehicles. Ultimately, that cash buys the commercial paper that’s issued to help fund everything from corporate payrolls to a manufacturing company’s production inventories. The deepening credit crisis – with its inevitable contagion spreading like a nuclear winter across the globe – is forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve and central banks worldwide to go to extraordinary measures in their attempts to thaw out the credit freeze and save banks. While the Fed’s rush to rescue the commercial paper market has been promoted by some as a Main Street rescue, make no mistake, the intensity of the U.S. central bank’s heat is directed toward frozen banks. The number ...

By relaxing the U.S. financial system’s mark-to-market accounting standards, the U.S. government is effectively deactivating the financial “early warning system” that let investors know that a global credit crisis was brewing – and kept it from turning into a total global meltdown, professional investors warn. As part of the just-passed U.S. bailout bill, the government has reiterated the Securities and Exchange Commission’s authority to relax the mark-to-market standards. If the SEC actually follows through on that directive, many professional investors worry that we won’t catch on to the next leg of the ongoing credit crisis until it’s way too late. While politicians point to mark-to-market rules as the cause of the billions in write-downs and losses suffered by financial firms in recent quarters, in fact, it was mark-to-market accounting that first exposed the underlying problems in the complex markets for ...

[In Part II of his three-story investigation of the credit crisis, Money Morning Contributing Editor Shah Gilani shows us how American International Group, a perfectly sound company that’s survived for 89 years, was destroyed by some errant bets on a derivative security called a “credit default swap,” or CDS. It’s a story you’ll read nowhere else.] By Shah Gilani Contributing Editor There’s nothing fundamentally wrong with the core insurance business units of American International Group Inc. (AIG). Nothing at all. What imploded the venerable insurance giant was an accumulation of misplaced bets on credit default swaps. By the best estimates of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), often referred to as the central banks’ central bank, the notional value of credit default swaps is some $62 trillion, or 35 trillion British Pounds at an ...

[Part I of a three-part series looking at how so-called “credit default swap” derivatives could ignite a worldwide capital markets meltdown.] By Shah Gilani Contributing Editor Are you shell-shocked? Are you wondering what’s really going on in the market? The truth is probably more frightening than even your worst fears. And yet, you won’t hear about it anywhere else because “they” can’t tell you. “They” are the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department, and they can’t tell you what’s really going on because there’s nothing they can do about it, except what they’ve been trying to do – add liquidity. At the exchange rate yesterday (Wednesday), 35 trillion British Pounds was equivalent to U.S. $62 trillion (hence, the 35 trillion Pound gorilla). According to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, $62 trillion is the notional value ...