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Informational Power: Interpreting the Payroll Employment Report

Jeffrey Miller (May 6th, 2008) Writes:
What is the market impact from the interpretation of data? It is an open and free debate, but there is a problem. The results follow from advanced statistical methods and processes. Even the smartest hedge fund managers, columnists, and pundits cannot draw independent conclusions. They did not take the right classes. They never did any time series modeling or survey research. Briefly put, they lack the necessary skills to evaluate most data. The result: Nearly everyone relies upon the analysis of those accepted as experts. What choice is there? This is a recognized principle in social science, called the two-step flow of communications. Application to the Monthly Payroll Employment Report When do we know that data interpretation has a market impact? One test might be the widespread citation of a conclusion. Our "go to guy" for those on the NYSE floor is Art Cashin. In his daily ...

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