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Today in Russian Business – Nov 9, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (November 9th, 2009) Writes:
At the G20 finance summit in St Andrews, the problem of unemployment was raised as well as 'uneven growth'; Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has said that 'exit strategies' will have to be considered.  Kudrin apparently believes that a second wave of crisis is unlikely.  Goldman Sachs will not become the key adviser to Rusal on its intended $30 billion stock-market listing, a decision which is 'mutual'; the Bank of America Merrill Lynch will take its place.  Apparently Goldman Sachs may have been deterred by Rusal owner Oleg Deripaska's problems in the US, fueled by allegations that he is involved with organized crime.  The government has nearly completed the initial development of an agency designed to help provide subsidies for exports loans and regulate export tariffs.  Mitsubishi has acquired a 40% stake in Russia's Rolf Import.  ...

Today in Russian Business – Nov 3, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (November 3rd, 2009) Writes:
Jason Bush in Forbes suggests that Russia's recovery may be buoyant: 'while the Russian government is still cautiously forecasting 2 percent GDP growth in 2010, many independent economists are already predicting growth of as much as 5 percent next year'.  Oleg Deripaska's heavily-indebted RusAl has made a deal to sell 1.68 million tons of aluminum to Chinese state corporation Norinco over seven years.  Renault COO Patrick Pelata has told the press that whilst the French car giant will support bankruptcy-skirting Avtovaz, the company will not supply the cash booster shot that the Russians allegedly want.  Corporate loan portfolios and overdue corporate loans fell slightly in September, as the ruble gained in value.  The Russian Gold Industrialists Union has announced that gold production rose 14.6% in the first nine months of 2009, year-on-year, an increase they attributed to a number ...

Today in Russian Business – October 1, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (October 1st, 2009) Writes:
According to Bloomberg, Russia intends to pay off the last of its Soviet-era $1.2 billion debt this year to ease the fears of potential investors.  Ria-Novosti reports that the World Bank has suggested that Russia's GDP will reach pre-crisis levels in the third quarter of 2012.  In September manufacturing grew for the first time in 14 months.  Rusal head Oleg Deripaska has said that oversupply has put the aluminum market under 'huge stress' and he will be 'very cautious' on investing outside of Russia.  Russia's Central Bank will continue intervening in the foreign currency market because of the country's vulnerability to oil price fluctuations.  Alfa Bank head Pyotr Aven, who has apparently developed a reputation for gloom-mongering, is uncharacteristically optimistic that there will be no second wave of crisis.  The European Bank for Reconstruction and ...

Today in Russian Business – September 28, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 28th, 2009) Writes:
Ria-Novosti reports that first deputy prime minister Igor Shuvalov believes the path towards a customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan is clear.  Bank of America Corp. has increased Russia's economic growth forecast for 2010 to 3.9% from 2.4%.  Citigroup Inc. estimates that Russia's economy will grow faster than previously estimated, according to Bloomberg.  Arabtec Holding has started foundation-test work on the Gazprom tower.  Sberbank may sell its stake in Opel to VEB, if a sale to GAZ Group falls through, Reuters reports.  President Medvedev has told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that he is willing to provide state guarantees for Opel investments in Russia, says Reuters.  A possible windfall for Avtovaz: the company may be assembling Nissan cars by 2012.  The Telegraph reports on tough times for the Lada.  The Times reports that Yelena ...

Today in Russian Business – September 18, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 18th, 2009) Writes:
Economic aide Arkady Dvorkovich has complained that G20 nations are not abstaining from protectionism as promised at the April summit.  Anti-crisis measures will be upheld, Dvorkovich added, apparently contradicting the Central Bank chairman who had said that the crisis has receded enough to consider withdrawing some measures.  Diversifying Russia's economy is going to be an uphill struggle, one that has been put on the back burner by the financial crisis, argues Reuters.  A trade union at Avtovaz automaker has announced it will hold mass protests against the company's decision to enforce redundancies, according to RFE/RL.  Oleg Deripaska's GAZ Group will slash 14,000 jobs.  GAZ will get its hands on GM technology as part of the Opel deal, posing possible problems for the US carmaker's market share in Russia.  Mikhail Prokhorov may bankroll a Brooklyn basketball stadium.  ...

Today in Russian Business – September 16, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 16th, 2009) Writes:
Reuters reports that Russia is anxious to see that economic reforms promised by the G20 are realised.  The Kremlin's top economic adviser, Arkady Dvorkovich, has suggested that Russia should begin to 'interlink the ruble' with energy resources so as to render the Russian currency 'essential' for many countries.  Dvorkovich has also suggested a cut in VAT to stimulate the economy.  Also from Reuters, lenders have apparently been put off by two major debt cases in Russia, one of which being the mammoth debt restructuring efforts for Oleg Deripaska's Rusal.  Russia will reportedly modify its investment laws to render investing in specific target sectors easier.  Prosecutor General Yury Chaika has said that the office will prosecute both shareholders and executives in companies which fall behind in wage payments, which could challenge the legal standing of the limited ...

Today in Russian Business – September 9, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 9th, 2009) Writes:
According to Bloomberg, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has said that the budget deficit may reach 6.8% of GDP next year, 4% in 2011, and 3% in 2012.  The Duma has recommended the ousting of banking lobbyist Anatoly Aksakov, whose comments earlier this year on devaluation shook the financial market, from the National Banking Council.  Car sales fell by 54% in August, the smallest decrease (year-on-year) in four months.  Belgium's Solvay has announced it has agreed to buy Sodium Group Investments Limited's majority stake in Russia's Berezniki soda ash plant for $230.2 million, Reuters reports.  The board of General Motors has met in Detroit under pressure from the German government to elucidate their plans for Opel.  Dixy, Russia's third biggest retailer, expects retail sales to rise by up to 18% this year.  Russia has been ranked...

RAs Daily Russia News Blast, Sept 7, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 7th, 2009) Writes:
kremlin090709.jpg[Again, my apologies for the late posting of this news blast, as I'm covering all the bases on my own today... - Best, James]TODAY:  The United States sells even more arms during a recession, Gorbachev's towering ego, more gas spats between the Kremlin and Kiev, Khodorkovsky talks about jail for life, the Pikalyovo virus spreads, Deripaska doesn't want Opel, and a EU human rights commissioner gets the state-approved tour of Chechnya.Russia and Ukraine are at each other's throats again over natural gas, with the Kremlin accusing Kiev of attempting to alter the contracts.  In a televised meeting with Gazprom's Alexei Millar, President Dmitry Medvedev said "As far as an idea of an advance payment for tariffs, then ...

Today in Russian Business – August 25, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (August 25th, 2009) Writes:
After a second consecutive month of growth in July, when GDP increased by 0.5%, government ministers Igor Shuvalov and Andrei Klepach have felt optimistic enough to suggest Russia's recession may be over - 'but the crisis has yet to be overcome'.  Sberbanks's profits fell by 93% in the first seven months of the year.  The bank will provide Rushydro with up to 20 billion rubles to fund the rebuilding of the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydropower plant.  ITAR-TASS reports that mortgage loan interest rates may decrease to pre-recession levels in 2-3 years.  Opel unions will put pressure on GM to accept the Magna bid for the car maker's European unit, promising 'spectacular measures' to push a deal through.  Apparently joblessness continues to rise in 47 of Russia's regions.  Following a chorus of criticism joined by Oleg Deripaska, ...

Opel to Choose Suitor – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (August 21st, 2009) Writes:
General Motors will choose a preferred bidder for a controlling stake in its European Opel/Vauxhall business today. The deal has become a race between two suitors, Canada-based auto parts supplier Magna International (MGA) and Brussels-based industrial investment group RHJ International.   GM sits uncomfortably in the deal amidst the German government’s bias towards Magna. This is because Magna has vowed to make most of its job cuts outside Germany if it wins the deal. Both the suitors had indicated they would cut Opel’s workforce by a fifth – about 10,000 jobs – to make the unit financially viable. GM is in a dilemma fearing that Magna, backed by Russia’s Sberbank, could capture Opel's technology for the Russian car industry. Thus, if Magna wins the deal, GM may lose Russia’s increasingly important market for its models such as Chevrolet. Magna and Sberbank are planning to manufacture Opel cars ...

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