Oil is a commodity that has steadily rose since December. Continuing its monumental climb, the commodity rose near $80 a barrel on Wednesday as the dollar continued to weaken, trumping a report pointing to a rise in U.S. oil inventories.

While this trend may be confusing to the everyday investor, analysts have stated that the drastic change in the price of oil is tied to how global stock markets are doing and the dollar’s fluctuating exchange rate. One such analyst is Oliver Jakob. Jakob, who is renowned globally for his spot-on predictions of market trends, stated in reference to the jump in oil prices that, “This has nothing to do with any oil supply and demand fundamentals.”

The Energy Information Administration is the benchmark for the market and they are scheduled to release its supply data on Thursday. While investors anxiously await that report, a survey from the American

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A tepid report on housing starts sent stocks into a tizzy and major indexes slipped from their year highs as solid earnings reports from Apple Inc. to Caterpillar were overlooked by anxious investors.  A rebound in dollar from its 14-month lows also added to the downward pressure and hurt commodities, sending energy and material shares lower. 

Weakness in share sent Treasury prices higher, with the 10-year closing up 13/32, to 102 11/32.  The yield fell to 3.34%, from 3.39% late Monday.  On Tuesday, the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average fell 50.71 points, or 0.50%, to 10,041.48.  The broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index retreated 6.85 points, or 0.62%, at 1,091.06 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index lost 12.85 points, or 0.59%, to 2,163.47.  Market breadth was negative.  On the New York Stock Exchange, declining shares beat those that rose in price two to one on volume of 1.24 billion

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The number of traders betting that oil prices will drop outnumbers the number of traders who believe they will rise by the largest margin ever. Some analysts believe prices will fall significantly lower in the near future – at least into the low $60 a barrel range – after soaring to $75 a barrel in August.

Supply has outrun demand this year as a global recovery has yet to accelerate. Yet, oil prices more than doubled from February to August and are up about 50% from where they started the year.

Now, many traders are positioning themselves to profit from a pullback. The gap between prices of options betting on a decline in prices and those that would profit as a result of a rise in oil has widened to a record 10 percentage points, according to five years of data compiled by Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch.

Put options, which give traders

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said yesterday (Thursday) that it would keep production quotas at 24.845 million bpd and urge members to adhere to targets, as global demand has yet to return in full.

However, a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated that demand is recovering more quickly than previously thought, and that OPEC may be playing catch-up as the global recovery gathers steam.

The IEA increased its outlook for global oil demand by nearly 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2009 and 2010, to 84.4 million and 85.7 million bpd respectively.

Perhaps the biggest reason for the increase was surging demand in China, where the Red Dragon’s $587 billion (4 trillion yuan) stimulus plan has resuscitated manufacturing and helped China grow into the world’s largest auto market.

China’s imports of oil hit a record high in July, soaring 18% from the month prior to 19.63 million metric

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Profiting From Oil – Peak or Not

Tony Daltorio, The Investment U Research Team

It seems like the only times that the financial media talks about oil is when they mention either demand destruction in the United States or an inventory buildup of fuel, etc. in the United States.

The financial media is doing a real disservice to millions of investors in two ways.

The first is by ignoring the rest of the globe when it comes to demand for oil. For example, China imported a record amount of oil in July – 4.6 million barrels a day, up 42% from last July.

This record monthly figure is well above the previous peak of 4.1 million barrels of oil a day set in March 2008, when the financial media said that China was simply stockpiling oil ahead of the Olympics.

The second

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Given all the news this week of Russia and Italy's South Stream deal with Turkey in exchange for a nuclear power plant, I thought I would repost an article written by Robert Amsterdam last fall in Energy Risk on Turkey's political pipelines.

FROM OCT. 2008, ENERGY RISK:

Turkey's political pipelines

Turkey's strategic position at the crossroads of East and West has put it at the centre of a geopolitical tug of war, with energy supply a key driver. Robert Amsterdam examines the energy policies being brought to bear in the region

Turkey's role in global affairs is defined by its geostrategic importance as the bridge between Europe and the Near East. Following Russia's invasion and occupation of Georgia in August, which caused considerable energy supply jitters, Turkey was once again thrust into the spotlight as the European

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Kazakhstan was once a nation of nomads wandering vast steppes. They herded cattle, goats and camels. On the country’s western edge lies the Caspian Sea. Towns grew up along the shore there, hauling in catches of sturgeon and black caviar.

But otherwise, Kazakhstan was an empty desert. Even in the days of the old Silk Road, traders would skirt Kazakhstan’s southern border rather than try to cross that hell of a desert. It was remote. Desolate. The Soviets used parts of the northeast to test nuclear weapons.

The Aral Sea, site of one of the greatest environmental disasters ever, is in Kazakhstan. A century ago, carp, perch, caviar-bloated sturgeon and much more filled the Aral Sea. Fisherman hauled hundreds of tons of fish per year, fed themselves and loaded trains full of fish headed to Moscow. Then the Communists had some harebrained scheme to use the water for irrigation.

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Suddenly, and with little warning, geopolitical risk is back. With all the thundering force of an underground nuclear explosion, our heads are turned to the globe’s unstable flashpoints once again… Suddenly, and with little warning, geopolitical risk is back.

Not that it ever really left, of course. Preoccupied with a sea of financial troubles, the world had simply put it out of sight and out of mind for a while.

Now, with all the thundering force of an underground nuclear explosion, our heads are turned to the globe’s unstable flashpoints once again…

North Korea: “Look at Me”

In North Korea, the Kim Jong Il Regime has just conducted a fresh nuclear test (and fired three short-range missiles). “World leaders reacted with outrage,” according to CNN, in response to the unlawful test. The U.N. Security Council held a special emergency session to “condemn”

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Luckily, I was bearish on oil until recently. I said to short oil when it was at $120 per barrel on 04/23/08. I was a little early to the party, but oil did drop below $33 a barrel in December of 2008. Oil plummeted $114 a barrel after reaching its record high last summer.

But, now I think oil has bottomed and will head higher. My fundamental and technical indicators are pointing to higher oil prices.

It’s disappointing that Americans seem to forget about our dependence on foreign oil as oil prices drop. In the 1970’s we got a wakeup call when people experienced gas shortages and rising fuel costs. Then it happened again, when oil spiked up to $147 a barrel last July. You heard lots of talk of switching to electric cars and cutting off our addiction to foreign oil. It’s disheartening that you don’t hear much about this

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OPEC says willing to cut production further from March…  Impending U.S. stimulus package supportive…  Dismal U.S. jobs data still weighs on sentiment…

Oil climbed towards $42 a barrel on Monday after OPEC said it was willing to cut oil output further if needed to stabilise oil prices.

The market was also supported by a giant U.S. economic stimulus package that the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to get through Congress this week.

U.S. crude for March delivery rose $1.67 cents to $41.84 a barrel by 1448 GMT. London Brent climbed $1.45 cents to $47.66.

“If we think we still need more action, I’m sure the conference will take more action to stabilise the market,” the secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Abdullah al-Badri, told reporters in London. He was referring to OPEC’s supply policy meeting on

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