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Inventories Weigh on Oil Prices - Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (January 7th, 2009) Writes:
We cite Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP).In its weekly report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported substantial crude oil inventory build. The agency reported that total crude oil stocks for the week ended January 2 increased by 6.7 million barrels from the preceding week, significantly above expectations. Current stocks are 15.1% above the comparable period last year. As such, current stock levels provide for 22.5 days of supply, significantly above the year-earlier level of 18.4 days.The above chart from the EIA clearly shows that currently inventory levels are above the five-year range (the shaded portion). At the critical Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point -- the official delivery point for the NYMEX futures contract -- crude oil stocks are more than 80% above the year-earlier level, an all-time high.For refined products, total gasoline stocks jumped ...

Investing In Oil Now Could Be The Trade Of The Year

Contrarian Profits (January 7th, 2009) Writes:

Geo-political tensions are mounting in the global energy game. And that could make investing in oil right now the trade of the year, says Manraaj Singh. Buying shares of oil majors is a good move now. But Manraaj says quality mid-sized oil companies are best placed to return big profits in the next oil bull run.

This from Fleet Street Invest:

Israeli tanks have just rolled into Gaza…Almost three thousand miles away, Nigerian separatist blew-up an oil pipeline over the weekend…Meanwhile, Russia is locked in a dispute over the price of gas with Ukraine. Today they stopped deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine, Turkey and Europe to force the Ukrainians to pay up…

While fears about political instability drive the price of oil back up again, the OPEC oil barons are tightening the screws on global oil supplies…Oil was trading at just $35 per barrel on Christmas Eve. It’s over $50 this

...

A HUGE Currency Rally!

Contrarian Profits (December 29th, 2008) Writes:

Gaza bombing has dollar on the run…  More proof we’re turning Japanese…  Adding to the debt burden…  What will deflation do for the dollar? And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

The currencies had a split personality while I was gone too… At first, they rallied like there was no tomorrow, but then sold off, and then range traded. So, we’ll finish the year on a down note for most of the currencies, but knowing all too well that the markets are beginning to realize that the debts the U.S. is chalking up are not going to go away, and in fact they’re just going to get worse, and that spells bad times for the dollar… Eventually…

I

...

Oil Rises Above $40 on Israeli Attacks

Contrarian Profits (December 29th, 2008) Writes:

Oil above $40 a barrel; geopolitical risk returns… Israeli air strikes go into third day… China to build up oil reserves while price is low

Oil prices rose above $40 a barrel on Monday, boosted by the weak dollar and Israeli attacks on Hamas that served as a reminder of tensions that could threaten Middle East crude oil supplies.

U.S. light, sweet crude was up $2.75 at $40.45 a barrel by 1335 GMT, below a session high of $42.20.

Oil is on track for a nearly 60 percent loss this year, the biggest annual fall since futures began trading 25 years ago.

London Brent crude rose $2.88 to $41.25 a barrel, after touching a session high of $43.18.

“Geopolitics had disappeared from the oil scene for the last couple of months but will regain some price premium with the latest Israeli

...

OPEC Scrambling to Halt Slide - Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (December 17th, 2008) Writes:
OPEC ministers, meeting in Algeria today, announced a deep production/supply cut of 2.2 million barrels. The new cut is scheduled to take effect from January 1st. OPEC accounts for about 37% of total global oil supplies.This followed the cartel's 1.5 MMBbl/d [million barrels per day] cut announced in September, which was on top of the curtailment of about 500,000 Bbl/d that they were over-producing. As such, OPEC has announced cutbacks totaling 4.2 MMBbl/d from its September 2008 actual production of 29.045 MMBbl/d.Ali Naimi, the Saudi minister, was quoted in the last few days advocating a 2 MMBbl/d cut to bring the commodity's supply-demand fundamentals in balance. As such, the ‘surprise value' of the announcement is limited.Nevertheless, the announcement represents a robust response from the cartel to the steep fall in oil prices in recent months. However, the announcement's ability to stem further weakness ...

Fed May Cut Rates Again as Policymakers Meet

Contrarian Profits (December 15th, 2008) Writes:

After U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers meet today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday), most experts expect a half a percentage point cut in the benchmark Federal Funds Rate – which is already 1.0%.

That doesn’t leave members of the central bank’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) much room to maneuver. Still, the policymakers may have more ammunition in their arsenal and the statement that accompanies the rate decision at the end of the two-day session could shed some insight on the “creative” actions the Fed could consider in addition to rate cuts (For instance, the central bank could extend the new investment firm discount window, offer additional loan guarantees, or utilize any number of other tools).

And the Fed may well have to use those other tools. As Japan’s “Lost Decade” demonstrated, “zero” interest rates won’t necessarily jump-start an economy – especially when interest

...
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Fed May Cut Rates Again as Policymakers Meet

William Patalon (December 15th, 2008) Writes:
After U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers meet today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday), most experts expect a half a percentage point cut in the benchmark Federal Funds Rate – which is already 1.0%. That doesn’t leave members of the central bank’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) much room to maneuver. Still, the policymakers may have more ammunition in their arsenal and the statement that accompanies the rate decision at the end of the two-day session could shed some insight on the “creative” actions the Fed could consider in addition to rate cuts (For instance, the central bank could extend the new investment firm discount window, offer additional loan guarantees, or utilize any number of other tools). And the Fed may well have to use those other tools. As Japan’s “Lost Decade” demonstrated, “zero” interest rates won’t necessarily jump-start an ...
Tags for this Post:
3M Corp.;, Algeria, bank of america corp, Barack Obama, Ben S, Ben S. Bernanke, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC;, Bernard Madoff;, bush administration, car czar;, central bank, Chakib Khelil, Depression, Dow 30, Dow Chemical Co, Dow Jones, Duke University, energy analysts;, energy information administration, Enron, European Union, fed-funds, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, FedEx Corp., Ford Motor Co, Gas Prices, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Gross Domestic Product, Japan, John A. Thain, John J. Mack, Market Commentary, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, NASDAQ Stock Market Inc., Oil, Oil Prices, oil supplies, Oil Trading, Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Retail Sales, Russell 2000, Senate, Sony Corp, Sp 500, the financial, U.S. House, U.S. Treasury Department, Us Federal Reserve, USD, Wall Street Journal

Will The Price of Oil Per Barrel Drop to $20?

Investment U (December 9th, 2008) Writes:

Will The Price of Oil Per Barrel Drop to $20?

In a sharp reversal from earlier this year, when traders were looking at $147 barrels of oil and pundits claimed it would never go below $100 ever again, the price of crude oil continues to make new lows. Oil hovers around $43.71 per barrel and looks like it could go even lower.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) is also hovering near all-time lows. It’s currently at $34.96, barely above its 52-week low of $33.08 and well below its high of $119.17 set in July.

The price for a barrel of crude has remained relatively stable over the last 25 years, except of the past four years, which have seen prices skyrocketing. It explains why oil giants like Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and BP (NYSE: BP) have recorded massive profits lately.

Prices would need

...

Crude Falls Even Further

Doug Casey (November 13th, 2008) Writes:

In the energy market Wednesday, oil not only stayed below the $60 benchmark, it swooned further, with crude for December delivery closing at $56.16/barrel, down $3.17. December reformulated gasoline lost 5.8 cents, to $1.2481/gallon.

OPEC may now be panicking. Its President, Chakib Khelil, told Reuters that the cartel may cut oil supplies again by the end of this month. OPEC’s next scheduled meeting isn’t until Dec. 17 in Algeria, but it could take action ahead of that — as early as Nov. 29 — if prices fall further from current levels, Khelil said.

The Energy Information Administration trimmed its outlook for energy demand and prices in it monthly report issued yesterday, blaming the current U.S. and global economic downturn.

The EIA expects world oil demand to rise almost 100,000 barrels per day in 2008 but to remain “virtually flat” in 2009. In the US, it expects petroleum-product demand to drop 5.4%,

...

How To Profit As Market Forgets Oil And Gas Fundamentals

Justice Litle (November 10th, 2008) Writes:

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Justice Litle thinks Dickens’ classic line  provides an apt description of today’s markets. Sure, this year has been hell. But it has also created some amazing opportunities for contrarian investors. Justice says this is most apparent in the oil and natural gas market, where irrational risk aversion has made most people forget the fundamentals.

This from Taipan Daily:

Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking.

— Vice–President-Elect Joe Biden

Just a few weeks ago, Vice–President-elect Joe Biden (back when he was plain old Senator Joe Biden) promised the world that Barack Obama will be “tested” by America’s enemies.

“Remember I said it standing here,” Biden told his Seattle audience, “if you don’t remember

...
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