Oil rises above $47 a barrel… U.S. weekly oil stocks data expected to show bearish rises… OPEC compliance to cuts at 66 percent for November

Oil rose above $47 a barrel on Wednesday but the gains could be limited as further signs of weakening U.S. oil demand are expected to emerge in weekly data due out later in the session.

The market has fallen $100 a barrel from July’s record high of $147.27 to stand at a 3 1/2-year low, pressured by the gloomy economic outlook and after OPEC deferred a decision on whether to cut supplies until a Dec. 17 meeting.

U.S. crude rose 22 cents to $47.18 a barrel by 1020 GMT. It settled down $2.32 at $46.96 on Tuesday, the lowest settlement since May 2005. Brent crude gained 22 cents to $45.66.

“It’s a correction after yesterday’s fall,” said

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No one knows where oil is heading. Only four months ago (May ’08), oil cleared $120 a barrel on its way to $145. Within a month, analysts were calling for $150, even $200 oil. Countless graphs and charts surfaced showing how demand was outpacing supplies. Pundit after pundit commented that emerging markets like China and India were fueling an unstoppable mega-boom for black gold. Then Russia invaded Georgia, and oil took a nose dive falling more than 20 consecutive days from $145 down to $115 a barrel. Hurricane Gustav gave it a brief shot in the arm, but the damage was less than expected and oil rolled over the next day. Now analysts are predicting oil will fall to $100 or even $85 a barrel. Again the charts and graphs are surfacing, this time showing that both international and domestic demand for oil is ...

We unveiled one of our favorite 4PM pastimes back in April: called The Correlation Game, the steps are simple:

Step One: Point your browser at Yahoo Finance, Marketwatch, or whatever mainstream financial media portal suits your fancy. Step Two: Scan the top headline, which is typically of the form, “Markets move x on news that y.”  If the headline includes a dubious assumption or inference about causation, take a drink. Step Three: the next player moves to the next headline and/or media outlet, and repeats step two. The last player to fall over or to refuse to believe that some shots fired in the air in the Niger delta have any intrinsic relationship whatsoever to the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude, wins.

Let it be noted for the record that this is not a game to be played every day.  Why?  Well,

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