The number of traders betting that oil prices will drop outnumbers the number of traders who believe they will rise by the largest margin ever. Some analysts believe prices will fall significantly lower in the near future – at least into the low $60 a barrel range – after soaring to $75 a barrel in August.

Supply has outrun demand this year as a global recovery has yet to accelerate. Yet, oil prices more than doubled from February to August and are up about 50% from where they started the year.

Now, many traders are positioning themselves to profit from a pullback. The gap between prices of options betting on a decline in prices and those that would profit as a result of a rise in oil has widened to a record 10 percentage points, according to five years of data compiled by Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch.

Put options, which give traders

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While Russian government officials parse the ins and outs of dollar diplomacy, Kazakh Central Bank Governor Grigory Marchenko said in no uncertain terms in London today that Kazakhstan is a ready buyer of dollars for at least the rest of the year. What he specifically told Reuters:

"Now we have been buying dollars in small quantities. There are more petrodollars flowing in the country, and exchange rates have been stable and we don't see any threat. Actually we believe we will be buying more dollars until the end of the year but we will maintain this medium term band of 150 tenge plus/minus 5 tenge."

This intention relies at least in part on commodity prices maintaining more or less at their current levels. Looking deeper at Kazakhstan's current economic outlook, Bloomberg's latest on the country's IMF needs, or lack

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We’re now in an extended bounce which could last until mid-summer. Stocks were up yesterday… the Dow rose 196 points.  What were investors thinking?

“Home prices fell more than forecast,” reports Bloomberg. They’re still going down at a 19% rate. Unemployment is still rising too.

The state with the biggest economy in the nation is going broke. So is the nation’s biggest manufacturer. Profits are falling. And the government is racing to put in place a form of state-sponsored socio-capitalism much like Mussolini’s Italy… or Peron’s Argentina.

These do not sound to us like ideal conditions for a bull market.

Did we say thinking? There’s not much thinking going on. People don’t often think… not if they can avoid it. And it’s probably better that they don’t. Who knows what opinions they might come to if they put their minds to it?

Instead of thinking, they react. And after a big drop

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Luckily, I was bearish on oil until recently. I said to short oil when it was at $120 per barrel on 04/23/08. I was a little early to the party, but oil did drop below $33 a barrel in December of 2008. Oil plummeted $114 a barrel after reaching its record high last summer.

But, now I think oil has bottomed and will head higher. My fundamental and technical indicators are pointing to higher oil prices.

It’s disappointing that Americans seem to forget about our dependence on foreign oil as oil prices drop. In the 1970’s we got a wakeup call when people experienced gas shortages and rising fuel costs. Then it happened again, when oil spiked up to $147 a barrel last July. You heard lots of talk of switching to electric cars and cutting off our addiction to foreign oil. It’s disheartening that you don’t hear much about this

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Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown

The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe has reached acute danger point.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Last Updated: 2:05AM GMT 15 Feb 2009

If mishandled by the world policy establishment, this debacle is big enough to shatter the fragile banking systems of Western Europe and set off round two of our financial Götterdämmerung.

Austria’s finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week to put together a €150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent €230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria’s GDP.

“A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector,” reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc. The Vienna press said Bank Austria

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December 22, 2008 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Capstone analyst Adam Adelman issued a BUY rating on Raser Technologies (NYSE:RZ) this morning, setting a $7 price target. Adelmanrsquo;s takeaways: middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Raser is transitioning from developmental stage to commercial viability; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Raserrsquo;s modular approach to building geothermal power plants will enable it to cut plant development times and its technology enables it to generate power from lower temperatures; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Secular trends ndash; geothermal, as a baseload power source has advantages for utilities over other alternative energy sources like wind and power; and geothermal is poised for strong growth in general; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Raser as a strong growth strategy in place with plans to add 100MW per year over the next three years and 150MW per year thereafter; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Bottom cycling can contribute to additional cashflow; and middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Power purchase agreements provide long-term stability and visibility to business model. Raserrsquo;s CEO Brent Cook recently weighed ...