“Global Demand for Oil to Plummet,” screams a recent Financial Times headline.   Huh?  No it won’t.  Who are they trying to kid?

Global oil demand is not going to “plummet.”  And for the FT to say so is just plain silly, if not irresponsible.  OK, I know.  There’s an old saying that they teach in journalism schools.  “You have to sell newspapers.”  But this declaration by the FT highlights the perils of letting a headline-writer do your thinking for you.  It’s what I call “arguing a screaming conclusion.”  And a wrong conclusion at that.

Oil Demand – Down, Then Up

But let’s move past the headlines.  The Financial Times article explains that the World Bank has just issued a new study.  The World Bank believes that the world is entering into the toughest economic times “since the Great Depression.”  Thus overall world oil demand may fall by about half a million barrels per

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We are maintaining our Hold on Teekay Corporation (TK), but reducing our target price to $16. Yesterday, TK issued a press release stating that it expects to report third quarter results in January upon completion of review by its auditors. In the meantime, TK believes that EPS will come in higher than the current $1.01 consensus estimate.This view is supported strong spot tanker freight rates, reflecting higher volumes of OPEC oil production and rising crude oil import volumes into the United States, China and India, as well as a dampening of tanker supply growth due to the removal of tankers from the global fleet for conversion and scrapping.We are raising our 2008 diluted EPS estimate to $4.00 from $3.75, but cutting our 2009 estimate to $2.75 from $4.00. Results should reflect the impact of global economic weakening on both spot rates and shipping volumes. ...

It was cloudy in the Algerian city of Oran on Wednesday…and a fairly pleasant 14 degrees in the open air… But the assembled leaders of the OPEC oil exporters’ cartel must have been feeling rather hot under the collar. Since hitting a peak of $147 in July this year, the price of oil has fallen by about $100. That has put the oil exporting countries under a huge amount of pressure. And now they are determined to drive the price of oil back up again.

Global oil production is set to fall sharply

On Wednesday, the cartel announced that it will slash daily oil production by 2.46 million barrels a day. That’s OPEC’s biggest production cut ever. What’s even more extraordinary is that some of the big the non-OPEC producers are now coordinating their production cuts with the cartel.

The Russians attended the OPEC meeting and they may cut announce their own

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Tuesday December 16, 2008 Navivest

Today will be an interesting one for the stock market. We could possibly see a move to the downside in early trading, followed by a very nice move to the upside in later trading.

The monetary policy setting arm of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Open Market Committee, will be announcing its latest interest rate decision, after meeting yesterday and today. Most analysts and forecasters are expecting that they will cut interest rates further, with some looking for a cut of as much as half a point.

Before we get the decision on interest rates, which does not come out until 2:15, we have some economic news due out today that should dictate the early tone of the markets.

At 8:30 AM, we will be getting Building Permits numbers, CPI numbers and Housing Starts. There is a very good chance that the housing related numbers could

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Some commodities are due a strong rebound, says Manraaj Singh. The underlying fundamentals are largely unchanged from July, when many resources were posting record highs. Manraaj says crude oil prices could double by the end of 2009, while agricultural prices will also soar.

This from Fleet Street Invest:

Just a few months ago it seemed like the whole investment world was jumping onto the commodities bandwagon. Now it seems that they can’t jump off fast enough.

The benchmark Reuters/Jefferies Commodity Index has now fallen by 51% from its peak in July (see chart below).

But as I’ll explain in a moment, commodity prices are set for a rebound. And if you are willing to take a longer term view, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Commodity prices reflect future expectations about the global economy. Less business activity and infrastructure spending means less demand for commodities.

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Speculation that oil prices are beginning to bottom helped push crude contracts higher yesterday (Wednesday), as traders closed out short positions and rumors surfaced that both Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are planning to cut production next week.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose $1.45,  or 3.4% to settle at $43.52 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after climbing by as much as 7% earlier in the day. Futures have plunged roughly 70% since hitting a record-high $147.27 a barrel in July. However, they may be set for a rebound as traders close out short positions and production cuts offset slackening demand.

Traders who took short positions on crude contracts, or placed bets that prices would fall, are buying contracts to cover those bets now that oil has dropped more than 20% in the past two weeks. Their exit from the market has been expedited by the belief that prices

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We are in a transition between the old profligate energy economy and the new economy of relative scarcity, says James Howard Kunstler. He is not convinced the President-elect Obama is fully aware of the dramatic changes that lie ahead for America. Even if he were, says James, he’d probably be crucified for daring to talk about it.

This from Whisky & Gunpowder:

A lot of readers are twanging on me for refraining to castigate President-elect Obama for deeds yet undone. They’re discouraged by the advisors and cabinet secretaries he’s picked, ostensibly because the crew coming in are Washington “insiders,” meaning they can’t possibly see or do things differently.

My own starting point for this is the belief that in the years just ahead any sociopolitical entity organized at the giant scale will flounder — this includes everything from the federal government to global corporations to factory farms to centralized

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by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /The number of people presenting jobless claims in Spain soared to nearly 3 million in November, following a 6 percent rise in registrations over October, providing us with yet further evidence, if we needed it, of the gravity of the situation which is now unfolding before our eyes. br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/STUIX3hljnI/AAAAAAAALnc/vz_j3mdGk_I/s1600-h/spain+unemployed.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 175px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/STUIX3hljnI/AAAAAAAALnc/vz_j3mdGk_I/s320/spain+unemployed.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5275131744669240946" //abr /br /The Spanish Labor Ministry stated that an additional 171,243 people signed on for unemployment benefits last month, bringing the total to 2.99 million. Year on year the increase was of 42.7%. Obviously it is hard to make exact forecasts for how the situation will evolve, but on a rough and ready (back of the envelope calculation basis - which is as good as any here, since the degree of undertainty is so large), if the contraction continues at the ...

President-elect Barack Obama is faced with the daunting challenge of fulfilling his campaign promises – promises he actually made, along with those that voters think he made.  Unfortunately, the latter category predominates.

The new president didn’t actually say much on the campaign trail, but he said it well. He invited Americans to dream, actually to fantasize, about an unreal world in which their government will care for them using its own unlimited supply of money – money that comes from some mysterious place that too few people have even thought about, much less understand.

Voters are said to have turned to the left, to liberal candidates, in part out of a desire to change the economy’s direction. Their choices at the polls are said to reflect their concern over the economy’s descent into recession, loss of jobs, and the collapse of their retirement accounts. These are legitimate and understandable concerns. Unfortunately,

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Oil rallies after near $100 drop since July…  OPEC’s Khelil says possible no output decision in Cairo…  U.S. shares higher

Oil prices steadied on Friday, after falling more than 7 percent the day before, as stock markets recovered from early lows caused by continuing economic gloom.

U.S. crude fell 13 cents to $49.29 a barrel at 12:08 p.m. EST (1708 GMT), after earlier hitting $48.25, its lowest level in three and a half years. London Brent crude gained 53 cents to $48.61 a barrel.

U.S. stocks recovered slightly after falling into negative territory on Friday as shares of financials, including Citigroup , declined and investors worried about the deepening economic slump.

Slumping demand in the United States and other top oil consuming nations has sent crude prices plunging from record highs above $147 a barrel in mid-July.

On Thursday, oil fell more than 7 percent on gloomy economic data, to settle at its lowest since

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