At the moment, money is being sucked out of the financial system, bringing the threat of deflation. But for James Howard Kunstler, the only question is when the new money being pumped in by the Fed will exceed the amount that has disappeared. James says we could see serious inflation - and a slump in the US dollar - before the end of 2009.

This from Whiskey & Gunpowder:

This is the “other shoe” that a lot of people are waiting to drop. Right now we are caught up in a compressive debt deflation as mortgages stop “performing” and loans of all kinds are welshed on. Since money is loaned into existence, and a great many loans are not being repaid, then a lot of money is going out of existence. That’s what I mean when I say that capital is leaving the system.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve has made

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U.S. oil price rises above $36… UAE follows OPEC deals with Jan, Feb cuts… Expectations of slowing energy demand weigh

Oil rose above $36 a barrel on Friday after the United Arab Emirates joined leading exporter Saudi Arabia in deepening supply curbs in line with OPEC’s biggest ever output cut announced last week.

U.S. crude gained $1.01 to $36.36 a barrel by 1219 GMT, off a session high of $36.90.

London Brent rose 94 cents to $37.55.

“The only positive news (for the market)… came from the UAE,” Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix wrote in a report. “For now at least, Saudi Arabia and the UAE seem to be fully complying with the cuts.”

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC), the main producer in the UAE, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, said it would cut supplies of February Murban and Upper Zakum allocations

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Research director for U.S. Global Investors sees a floor for oil; positive outlook for alternative energy, emerging markets and commodities.

 

John Derrick is research director of U.S. Global Investors, an asset manager which focuses in natural resources, emerging markets and global infrastructure sectors. In addition, he is a co-manager of several of the firm's stock mutual funds.

Derrick has been an analyst and portfolio manager for more than a decade. He spoke with IndexUniverse's Murray Coleman recently about the current situation in the natural resources marketplace.

 

IU: Do you think we're in a temporary dislocation in oil markets now?

Derrick: We're probably in somewhat of a temporary dislocation. Oil prices were unsustainable at $147 a barrel. At the same time, they're probably unsustainable at less than $42 a barrel right now. The cash cost of production, particularly for smaller producers, is probably around $45 a barrel. That's basically what it costs to

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After I recommended a bearish position in RCE on Friday, the markets surged like a rhino on cocaine. Typical! Still, it's better than a hot-death sandwich, if only because A) we kept the position small and B) my other services, which are longer-term, retain their bullish stance on gold, energy and agriculture.brbrAnd the markets are looking to open well up this morning, but Friday showed us how quickly these things can turn around. Keep an eye on the dollar ...brbrimg alt= style=width: 480px; src=http://local.content.compendiumblog.com/uploads/user/7e88b461-578b-47f3-88ec-038e212ad053/aa0ff38d-9bb9-44a5-bba5-8be30d8f6977/dollar.pngbrIt seems to be heading lower. If the US dollar breaks below 84.5, it could go to 82.65 or stronger support at 81. A weaker dollar should be supportive of gold (it has been so far this morning -- gold is up by about $24 as I write this) but it doesn't have to be.brimg alt= style=width: 480px; src=http://local.content.compendiumblog.com/uploads/user/7e88b461-578b-47f3-88ec-038e212ad053/aa0ff38d-9bb9-44a5-bba5-8be30d8f6977/gold.pngbrHere is the news I'm reading ...brbrGLOBAL MARKETSbrbra style=font-family: verdana; href=http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081208/world_markets.htmlWorld markets surge on global stimulus hopes/abr The ...

We are in a transition between the old profligate energy economy and the new economy of relative scarcity, says James Howard Kunstler. He is not convinced the President-elect Obama is fully aware of the dramatic changes that lie ahead for America. Even if he were, says James, he’d probably be crucified for daring to talk about it.

This from Whisky & Gunpowder:

A lot of readers are twanging on me for refraining to castigate President-elect Obama for deeds yet undone. They’re discouraged by the advisors and cabinet secretaries he’s picked, ostensibly because the crew coming in are Washington “insiders,” meaning they can’t possibly see or do things differently.

My own starting point for this is the belief that in the years just ahead any sociopolitical entity organized at the giant scale will flounder — this includes everything from the federal government to global corporations to factory farms to centralized

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Consumer Confidence Climbs; Home Prices Record Plunge; Troubled Banks on the Rise; Oil Falls 7%; Slim’s Bank Buys Citi Stock; D.R. Horton Shares Vault

The Conference Board said yesterday (Tuesday) that its Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 44.9, up from a revised 38.8 in October. Last month’s reading was the lowest since the research group started tracking the index in 1967. Home prices plunged in the third quarter, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price index, which posted a 16.6% drop for the three-month period. That outpaces the second quarter’s record 15.1% decline. The number of problem U.S. banks and thrifts soared to 171 in the third quarter, up from ...

Don’t expect oil prices to remain at these low levels for long, says Byron King. Demand weakness for crude is temporary. And oil-producing nations cannot sustain their own economies unless oil prices are close to $100 a barrel. Byron says it could be time for investors to slowly build up a position in oil service stocks.

This from Whiskey & Gunpowder:

Along with the market decline, the price of oil has fallen. It’s down 50% within three months. Back when oil hit $147 per barrel in July, I said that the price “ought” to be in the range of $100-110, with the possibility of a drop into the $90s. That’s what the fundamentals told me back then.

Most of the decline in oil price from $147 down to about $100 was directly related to the strengthening of the dollar. So the oil price slide in July, August and

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Here's how it was reported, for example, in the Wall Street Journal:

Reaction to the Wall Street bailout and frenzied last-minute trading in the oil market sent crude prices soaring by more than $16 a barrel, the biggest one-day jump ever.

The late-day spike, which shoved oil up 16% to $120.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, offered an illustration of Wall Street's hard-to-predict moves amid broad market turmoil.

And here's what really happened.

The most striking thing about yesterday's oil prices was the disparity between different futures contracts. The October contract, which expired yesterday, did indeed settle at $120.92, up more than $16. But oil for delivery in November closed at $109.27, an increase of only $6.62, and longer-forward contracts saw an even more modest increase. Unquestionably what was going on was a short squeeze, in which traders who had sold the October contract short were scrambling

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Lehman Brothers’ filing for bankruptcy has affected Russian markets, but President Dmitry Medvedev has insisted that Russia is not in crisis and announced that the government will provide liquidity to the banking sector. The markets, however, aren’t listening. Russia’s currency and foreign exchange levels are not suffering, but stock market troubles have been ongoing since July - do global oil markets have anything to do with the current situation? Bigger Russian companies may be buffered by their lower levels of debt, and six of Russia’s largest may use surplus cash to buy back shares in an attempt to ease the market slump. Merrill Lynch and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development are planning a venture with billionaire Viktor Vekselberg to build Russian hotels. Moscow apartment prices are falling. Russia’s S7 is one of three ...

Italy’s Enel and United Co. Rusal are in talks to build a new power unit for Enel’s OGK-5 generating plant near the Ural Mountains. The head of Enel says he sees no political risks for his business in Russia. Tensions in the oil markets are relaxing after Hurricane Ike inflicted less damage than expected. The Polish president believes military intervention in Georgia was aimed at obstructing Europe's efforts to cut reliance on Russian energy resources.