HIDDEN VALUE Dear Value Seeker,

We hope you had a happy holiday.

We’re on our way back to our home in Buenos Aires tonight. We’re looking forward to getting back, but not to the nine-hour flight with our nine-month-old son… It’s likely to be grueling.

But at least we’re not in the retail business…

They are likely to be disappointed by the holiday season. According to the Commerce Department, consumer spending fell 0.6% in November, the fifth monthly decline in a row.

The Wall Street Journal reports that 10% to 26% of U.S. retailers are now in danger of filing for Chapter 11 in 2009 or 2010.

That’s up from 4% to 6% of retailers in trouble in the last two years.

It’s no surprise, really.

More Americans are out of work now than at any time since 1982. The number of American’s filing for unemployment for the first time leapt to 586,000

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Fueled by uncertainty and heightened tensions between Israel and surrounding oil-rich Arab countries following the continued airstrikes by Israel on the Palestinian Gaza Strip, oil prices managed to trade up over $40 per barrel. Perhaps now the executives at Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) will send the Israeli government a nice "thank you" card.Less than 2 weeks ago, oil prices had hit a multi-year low of $32.40 per barrel after dropping off a cliff from the mid-summer all-time high of $147.27. Though crude supplies have been reportedly unaffected so far by the continual bombings, uncertainty is anathema for keeping prices of valuable local commodities such as crude oil low.Regarding two of the super-major integrated oil companies cited earlier -- Exxon and Chevron -- both companies are trading up over a percentage point thus far this morning, even though estimate revisions for both ...

HIDDEN VALUE

Dear Value Seeker,

Welcome to the Frankenstein Fed.

Today, the WSJ reports that the wonks at the central bank are now “weighing up” having the Fed issue its own debt.

It seems the poor central planners have gotten themselves into a bit of a twist while trying to mend America’s Humpty Dumpty economy.

It seems the Fed is pumping so much money into the system that it is running dangerously low on its stockpile of Treasury bonds, which it draws on to finance its funding programs.

And the Treasury isn’t too keen anymore to raise any more debt on behalf of the Fed.

Hank Paulson and his buddies have been issuing debt and leaving the proceeds on deposit with the Fed. But in November, the Treasury said in November it was “scaling back” on this.

You see, the Treasury is undertaking its own massive borrowing

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China Industrial Waste Management, Inc. (CIWM) released its 3rd Quarter 2008 financial results today for the period ending September 30, 2008. Among the highlights, total revenues increased by $3,434,442 or 53 % for the nine months ended September 30, 2008 as compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2007. Revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2008 increased by $870,538 or 37 % over the comparable period in 2007. CIWM said the gain in revenues was because of an increase in its customer base and increased demand for its services among its existing clients along with a growing sales network for the company’s recycled products.

Although the Summer Olympics hurt business, the company says the impact was short and that its prospects continue to improve. “We continu[e] to experience positive momentum in all aspects of our business,” said Jinqing Dong, Chairman and CEO. “Our

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Reserves of high-grade oil are in decline, says Byron King. Other hydrocarbons will be required to meet energy demand over the coming decades. But the cost of extracting and refining these resources is much higher than the current market price of crude. And that’s why cheap fuel is definitely not here to stay.

This from Rude Awakening:

The IEA estimates that the oil industry will have to invest over $350 billion per year to counter the steep rates of decline in output. And even that will not be sufficient to maintain levels of output for traditional forms of crude oil. Thus, much of the future investment will have to go toward extracting other kinds of hydrocarbon substances. And these “other kinds” tend to be very expensive to develop.

There are many different kinds of hydrocarbon molecules in the world. The total worldwide carbon base actually adds up to a very big

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Paulson reworks financial bailout: New targets for investment… even you can apply! Markets plummet… Bill Bonner on when stocks will be cheap enough to buy. OECD predicts global recession… Germany admits contraction has already begun. Wall Street CEOs forecast “rapid,” “deep” U.S. recession. Joel Bowman on a peculiar hissing sound emitting from the Middle East.

For an erudite debate over the Paulson doctrine, we turn to our friends at The Onion this morning:

The Money Hole.

It’s not any more complicated than that, is it?

Indeed, Paulson and company announced a TARP switcheroo yesterday. Now the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Recovery Program (TARP) is suffering a serious case of the STD “mission creep.”

Instead of purchasing troubled assets from banks, the Treasury,

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Plunging crude oil prices and currency weakness are creating a crisis in Russia that makes the US look like a boomtown. Financial turmoil is mounting pressure on the Kremlin, says Andrew Snyder. And the resulting desperation could lead to some interesting profit plays.

This from Today’s Financial News:

If you think the situation is bleak here in the United States, you would wet your pants if you took an in-depth look at Russia’s economy.

Its stock market seems to be closed more than it is open. Its currency is plunging. And its government is running out of options and money to fix the situation. Russia makes America look like we are sitting atop a booming economy.

Putin’s downturn could lead to some easy profit potential. But more on that in a minute.

For nearly all of the last decade, Russia’s economy has been based on the country’s ability to sell its natural resources to Europe

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Energy investors may find themselves at odds in weighing whether to put their money into fossil fuels or green alternatives. Two separate articles in today’s Wall Street Journal provide a good backdrop for the current dilemma. Ultimately, we’re of the opinion that it’s still too early for alternative energy to make a convincing business case.

In one story, the Journal covers a recently released annual report from the International Energy Agency. According to the Journal, the IAE paints a gloomy picture of energy shortages and escalating costs of discovery and recovery.

The IAE says that current low oil prices are an anomaly linked to the economic crisis embracing the world. Eventually, when the economy regains its health, oil prices will continue to climb over the coming years to hit $200 a barrel by 2030.

One problem with energy prices remains a dilapidated infrastructure. In turn, energy companies would have to invest more than

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The Democrats are in a very strong position following Tuesday’s election. Andrew Snyder says oil majors like Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and BP (NYSE:BP) will face higher taxes and stricter legislation. But offshore drilling experts with international exposure like Transocean (NYSE:RIG) remain an excellent long-term investment.

This from Today’s Financial News:

This cannot be good for the oil industry. There is a very left-leaning Democrat packing his bags and heading to Washington. The high-profit, we’ve-got-them-bent-over-a-table oil industry must be pinching itself hoping this is nothing more than a bad dream.

Unfortunately, it is real. Democrats now control the White House, the Senate, the House, the courts, our schools, and a large chunk of our nation’s banks. All that is left for us pro-business voters to do is pray they do not infiltrate the rest of Wall Street.

Over the next few years, the nation’s thriving businesses will face a strong headwind. Higher

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As the market price of crude oil falls, it reaches a point where the cost of new exploration projects exceeds the potential rewards. And that point is dangerous for small cap GETECH (LON:GTC), which provides specialist geographical data to the oil industry. Tom Bulford says the company may be undervalued, given its strong assets and customer base. But uncertainty over oil prices remains a key risk to operations.

More from Penny Sleuth:

News that Shell is to halt development of its vast Canadian tar sands project is a sign of changing times in the oil industry – and one that will not be well received at the AIM-listed provider of data to the oil industry, GETECH (LON:GTC). This is a pity because last week’s annual results statement revealed a share that looked extremely cheap and prompted an 80% rise in its price from 16p to 30p.

The question that affects ...