The International Energy Agency increased its forecast for 2010 global oil demand as the pace of economic recovery in Asia and the Middle East quickens, but has apparently cautioned that rising oil prices could jeopardize the green shoots of recovery. President Medvedev called for an end to Russia's 'humiliating' dependence on commodities in yesterday's state of the nation speech, whilst it is rebounding oil prices that are palliating Russia's current economic problems. Gazprom plans to increase its investment program by 5% next year, to $27.94 billion. The heads of the Russian state giant and Naftogaz are to meet to discuss the Ukrainian company's parlous financial status and issues related to the November supply of gas. Russia will apparently produce next-generation nuclear reactors and new types of nuclear fuel by 2014. Gazprom has confirmed plans ...

OUTLOOK The improving economic scene, both here in the U.S. as well as worldwide, is the main driver of the current oil rally that has seen the commodity settling around the $80 per barrel level. But high levels of product inventories (particularly gasoline), along with still higher supplies, will limit any sustained crude gains, in our view. But way too many factors weigh on oil prices, from OPEC decisions and geostrategic tensions to the value of the U.S. dollar and seasonal variables, to definitively size up each one of them for their respective impact on prices.  In its latest release, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a less-than-anticipated increase in crude stockpiles, which rose by 800,000 barrels for the week ending October 23. However, current crude oil stocks, at 339.9 million barrels, still remain 9% above the year-earlier level as well as above the upper limit ...

Russia 'counts on a controlling stake' in the three small hydropower plants it is building in Tajikistan and 'hope[s] for the Tajik side's understanding' in the matter.  The United Nations nuclear watchdog is in the process of inspecting Iran's uranium enrichment plant.  Both Iran and the U.S. are wary of falling into a trap over the nuclear question, reports the New York Times, and President Barack Obama reportedly called Dmitry Medvedev over the weekend to discuss the need to maintain Russian and U.S. unity over the issue.  The environmental safety of the Nord Stream project has been questioned by several of the transit countries, including Finland, but Vladimir Putin's meeting with his Finnish counterpart yesterday seemed to leave the schedule for completion in place.  China's oil demand is recovering at its fastest rate since June 2006.  ...

Recently, the federal government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued an overall bullish report, showing a smaller-than-expected build in crude stockpiles. Further, the data showed that gasoline inventories were down as predicted, while distillate stocks also declined, though fell short of expectations. In its release, the agency said that crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending October 16, much lower than analysts' expectations. This is the second successive week in which the crude buildup has been lower than originally anticipated. A major contributing factor to the modest increase can be attributed to a fall in crude oil imports, which dropped to the lowest level in two months. Current crude oil stocks, at 339.1 million barrels, are 8.9% above the year-earlier level and remain above the upper limit of the average for this time of the year (depicted in the first EIA chart below). The ...

This post is a guest contribution by Dian Chu*, market analyst, trader and author of the Economic Forecasts and Opinions blog.

Last Friday, US crude oil futures finished above $78, the highest level in a year, surging more than 9% during the past week making it the largest weekly gain since the height of the summer driving season, even though the US continues to sit on ample supply of petroleum.

Given the continued sluggishness of the economy, high unemployment rate and large amounts of excess oil production capacity around the world, analysts said a sudden upward spike was still unlikely, while others are predicting an immanent correction down below $70.

However, if you take a closer look, it is evident that the current crude oil market is almost entirely detached from fundamentals. Furthermore, there are several factors supporting oil rising to new levels, as fundamentals are

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Yesterday, the U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a less-than-expected build in crude stockpiles. However, the headline news was centered on a sharp drop in gasoline stocks and refinery utilization that pushed oil prices to a fresh 2009 peak and lifted energy stocks. The federal government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 400,000 barrels rise in crude inventories for the week ending October 9, much less than analyst expectations. The modest increase can be attributed to scaled back operations by the refiners (prompted by weak profit margins) even as imports fell. This follows last week’s report, which showed an unexpected rise in oil supply figures, against consensus forecast of a buildup. Current crude oil stocks, at 337.8 million barrels, are 9.6% above the year-earlier level and remain above the upper limit of the average for this time of the year (depicted in the first EIA chart ...

Two Sagging Economies… Two Laid-Back Banks

by Martin Denholm, Senior Editor

Anemic. Stagnant. Plodding.

Pick your favorite… it doesn’t matter. They all describe the state of the British and Eurozone economies.

Two weeks before the official third quarter U.K. GDP figure is released, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) delivered a somber verdict. The group says it actually didn’t grow at all, confounding those who said the economy started growing again.

Cue a fresh round of some good, old-fashioned British grumbling.

The culprit: a 2.5% fall in industrial production in August, as oil demand dropped. Still, neutral is better than reverse – a gear that Britain had driven in for 2009 up to that point, posting a 2.4% first-quarter slump and 0.6% second-quarter decline.

It’s not alone either. Its European neighbors are also backpedaling. The latest quarterly figure from Eurostat shows that the

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Why I Won’t Pay a Penny Over $70 for Oil

by Robert Williams, Publisher

For the third consecutive month, The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an upward revision of its forecast for world oil demand. It juiced up August’s estimate by 500,000 barrels a day, citing better-than-expected economic growth in developing Asian economies and North America.

So this rejuvenated demand for oil will have a barrel trading north of $90 in the weeks ahead, right? (The current market price for a barrel of oil is about $72.)

Not so fast. Two factors will likely hold price down through the end of the year.

Factor #1: When the financial crisis hit, and oil demand waned, suppliers began storing the massive inventory excess on tankers. OPEC said that, “Some 60

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The number of traders betting that oil prices will drop outnumbers the number of traders who believe they will rise by the largest margin ever. Some analysts believe prices will fall significantly lower in the near future – at least into the low $60 a barrel range – after soaring to $75 a barrel in August.

Supply has outrun demand this year as a global recovery has yet to accelerate. Yet, oil prices more than doubled from February to August and are up about 50% from where they started the year.

Now, many traders are positioning themselves to profit from a pullback. The gap between prices of options betting on a decline in prices and those that would profit as a result of a rise in oil has widened to a record 10 percentage points, according to five years of data compiled by Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch.

Put options, which give traders

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Four Easy Ways to Trade the World’s Top Commodities

by Lee Lowell, Advisory Panelist

I’m going to open the door to a “secret society” for you today.

It’s a world shrouded in deep myths and folklore that include stories of people losing their homes, or having 5,000 bushels of soybeans dumped on their front lawn.

I’m talking about the commodities world, of course.

But despite these tall tales, commodities aren’t necessarily dangerous investments. Not if you know what you’re doing and take adequate precautions. Rather, the “secret society” stuff comes from the belief that the sector is a murky one that many investors simply don’t understand. Just the mere sound of “commodity futures and futures options contracts” was enough to send people running for cover…

However, nothing could be further from the truth when dealing with commodities. And over the past

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