Bloomberg reports that Russia is surpassing Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil exporter, as Sechin, Rosneft, and co. are immensely enjoying the price advantage afforded to them by the oil cartel's production cuts this year.  Very few were expecting this reversal, especially after the Russians appeared at to be cooperative at the last OPEC summit.  This will put more pressure on other governments to jack up production or renegotiate the planned cuts, which will have a softening effect on short term prices (already expect to fall to around $65 a barrel this quarter).

Investors had expected Russian supplies to decline this year after Putin's deputy, Igor Sechin, told the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in December that his government was ready to limit production to support prices. Instead, the country is providing tax breaks for new fields in Siberia. ...

There are all sorts of catalysts that could send oil prices even higher. We are getting just a small dose of the action today and energy-related stocks are surging.

It must feel good to be part of OPEC these days. Now that the threat of $30 per oil is clearly in the past, the oil cartel is regaining some of the power it so quickly lost last fall.

The group of oil producers continues to claim $75 per barrel is its target price for crude, calling it “fair” for everybody involved. Who is to debate what is arguably the most powerful group of countries on the planet?

What OPEC wants, it gets. What are the alternatives? Wind, solar, tides? Doubt it.

As an oil-burning American with a propensity to drop a few Franklins into the gas tank on a weekend adventure, the thought of oil climbing to the cartel’s target range is frightening.

But

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There are all sorts of catalysts that could send oil prices even higher. We are getting just a small dose of the action today and energy-related stocks are surging.

It must feel good to be part of OPEC these days. Now that the threat of $30 per oil is clearly in the past, the oil cartel is regaining some of the power it so quickly lost last fall.

The group of oil producers continues to claim $75 per barrel is its target price for crude, calling it “fair” for everybody involved. Who is to debate what is arguably the most powerful group of countries on the planet?

What OPEC wants, it gets. What are the alternatives? Wind, solar, tides? Doubt it.

As an oil-burning American with a propensity to drop a few Franklins into the gas tank on a weekend adventure, the thought of oil climbing to the cartel’s target range is frightening.

But

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How did it get here, and where is it going? What a difference a year makes. While March lions and April showers were at work in 2008, so were these factors in the U.S. and global economies:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained steady above 12,000. The leading indicator of existing home sales was down over 21% from the previous year, and the official unemployment rate was just beginning its upward creep by crossing the 5% mark. The first official admissions of the “R” word. In early April 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared a 25% chance of a global recession, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that gross domestic product “could even contract slightly.” The novelty of bailouts began. Bernanke also assured Congress that the Fed’s emergency authorization of a loan against $29 billion of Bear Stearns assets wasn’t putting taxpayer money at risk: “I feel reasonably confident that ...

Having etched out new lows a few months ago amid the worldwide financial crisis, many commodity sectors appear to be doing their best impression of planes hovering over a busy airport: In a holding pattern.

While long-term commodity prospects are dictated by supply and demand, weather factors and long-term fundamentals, the short-term outlook is sprinkled with volatility. Some commodities have hit levels not seen in some time, reinforcing a new trend of late: The relationship between commodities and the general stock market.

It hasn’t always been the case that commodities and stocks moved in the same direction, but nothing is immune to a price shock these days. And when one domino moves, it can take many others with it.

We don’t foresee much change in this inter connected stocks-commodities relationship until all the recent government intervention takes a strong foothold.

So let’s turn to some commentary…

The Macroeconomic And Technical Outlook For Oil

Over the

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In the energy market on Tuesday, crude for April delivery rose $1.50 to settle at $41.65/barrel. April reformulated gasoline finished at $1.3194/gallon.

“Bulls are finding some technical hope in the fact that oil failed to close below $40 a barrel [Monday],” said Phil Flynn, vice president at Alaron Trading in Chicago. “[They are] also finding hope in the fact the stock market is attempting a rebound.”

Energy traders also kept an eye out for what might be next from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as what U.S. petroleum inventories for last week will show.

“Given the recent weakness in oil prices, we suspect that OPEC cannot afford to do nothing, and will have to put another cut through in order to insure that it stays in front of a rapidly deteriorating demand curve,” said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global (NYSE:MF).

The oil cartel has already announced a

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Geo-political tensions are mounting in the global energy game. And that could make investing in oil right now the trade of the year, says Manraaj Singh. Buying shares of oil majors is a good move now. But Manraaj says quality mid-sized oil companies are best placed to return big profits in the next oil bull run.

This from Fleet Street Invest:

Israeli tanks have just rolled into Gaza…Almost three thousand miles away, Nigerian separatist blew-up an oil pipeline over the weekend…Meanwhile, Russia is locked in a dispute over the price of gas with Ukraine. Today they stopped deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine, Turkey and Europe to force the Ukrainians to pay up…

While fears about political instability drive the price of oil back up again, the OPEC oil barons are tightening the screws on global oil supplies…Oil was trading at just $35 per barrel on Christmas Eve. It’s over $50 this

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OPEC cuts 2.2 million bpd of crude output… Dealers say record cut not enough to offset demand slide

Oil prices dropped 3 percent on Wednesday after OPEC announced a record supply cut that dealers said may fail to offset slumping world energy demand.

U.S. crude oil prices fell $1.40 to $42.20 a barrel by 1:35 p.m. EST (1835 GMT), after dipping to a more than four year low of $40.20 earlier in the trading session. London Brent rose 66 cents to $47.31 per barrel.

Oil prices have fallen more than $100 since July as a global financial crisis cuts into consumer and industrial fuel demand, and top forecasters are now predicting the first decline in world energy use since 1983.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, eager to push prices back up, announced on Wednesday an agreement to cut 2.2 million barrels per

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Gold eases in quiet trade, traders eye next week’s data… Gold set for biggest gain since 1999 on safe haven buying

Gold edged down on Friday as the dollar firmed against the euro, but trading was quiet as investors awaited the outcome of OPEC’s production meeting this weekend and a spate of data due next week for fresh impetus.

Spot gold was quoted at $810.00/812.50 an ounce at 1310 GMT, down from $814.60 an ounce late on Thursday, as the firmer dollar dented interest in the metal as a currency hedge.

The euro slipped after data showed falling inflation in the euro zone, boosting expectations the European Central Bank will cut interest rates further. [ID:nLS548735]

Falling oil prices are also doing little to help gold, which typically moves in line with crude. Traders are awaiting the outcome of this weekend’s meeting of the OPEC oil cartel,

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In the energy market Monday, oil gave up more ground, with crude for December delivery closing at $54.95/barrel, down $2.09. Gasoline for December delivery dropped 6.5 cents, to $1.1746/gallon.

OPEC President Chakib Khelil said Sunday that the oil cartel may have to wait until December to take action to reach an oil price of $70 to $90 a barrel, since the impact of its latest supply cuts was not clear yet.

But OPEC’s emergency cut that began November 1 “did not mop up excess supply in the market - and another cut in December … may need the cooperation of non-OPEC members to have any teeth,” said Thomas Hartmann, of Altavest Worldwide Trading.

In the meantime, “the continued rumblings of OPEC moving yet another meeting up ahead of schedule to continue slashing output, coupled with the U.S. entering peak heating demand season are helping set a floor under prices,” wrote

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