Housing Prices: How Far to Go until Bottom?
Menzie Chinn (September 23rd, 2008) Writes:
I'll just take the market's view here; using the futures prices from the CME (via ino.com), prices will fall about another 16% from June (or 17% in log terms):
Figure 1: Log Case-Shiller 10 city price index, (red), CME futures prices (red squares), and CPI adjusted SP Case-Shiller 10 city price index (dark blue). CPI-All rescaled to 100 2008M01-08M06. NBER defined recessions shaded gray. Dashed line indicates start of plotted futures data. Source: Standard and Poors'
[xls], ino.com - real estate (accessed 21 Sep 2008), St. Louis FRED II, NBER, and author's calculations.
The latest reading from ino.com for the Case Shiller US composite futures indicates a nominal bottom in May 2010, with a reading of 151.6 (or a bottom of of 151.4 in May 2011 if you want to nitpick.
This would represent about a 40% decline (in log terms) in housing prices
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