US Treasuries are in a bubble, making them ripe for shorting. But that trade is too obvious, says Justice Litle. And the situation is more complex now that the Fed is getting involved. Bernanke & Co could support T-Bills in the medium term, but that will only increase the odds of an epic decline after.

This from Taipan Daily:

U.S. Treasuries look so lousy here that shorting them has become the “obvious” trade. But there is more to this mystery than meets the eye, as Justice explores…

Jim Grant nailed it in a recent Financial Times piece. Known for their “risk-free return” in more normal times, Grant observes that U.S. Treasuries (or USTs for short) now offer “return-free risk.”

Treasury buyers, in other words, choose to lend to Uncle Sam for free these days… or, worse still, to pay for the privilege. As 2008 draws to a close, USTs are an

Warren Buffett says buy. Jeremy Grantham says it will get worse. Both are celebrated value investors. Who is right? It all depends upon your view of the third derivative of investing. Today we look at valuations in the stock market. This is the second part of a speech I have given in the past few weeks in California and Stockholm. I am updating the numbers, as the target keeps moving. 

While from one perspective things look rather difficult, from another there is a ray of hope. What can you expect to earn from stocks over the next five years? It should make for an interesting letter. Note: this will be a little longer than usual, but part of it is there are a LOT of charts.

I likened this to the economic situation we are in now. With consumer spending “resetting” to a new lower level, we are going to have to