For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – August 31, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Franklin Resources (BEN), United (UAUA), The Gap (GPS), J.C. Penney (JCP) and Family Dollar (FDO).

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Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:

Savings Rate Dips in July

We have already seen a dramatic improvement in the trade deficit over the last year -- more than cutting it in half. However, most of that improvement is due to the fall in the price of oil, and we are past the anniversary of the

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In July, personal income was essentially unchanged (up by $3.8 billion, or less than 0.1%). If one subtracts out taxes to get disposable personal income (DPI), it was also essentially unchanged -- except it was a decline of $4.6 billion, but that is also less than 0.1%. On the other hand, consumer spending, or personal consumption expenditures (PCE), increased by $25.0 billion or 0.2%. Well what happens if income is flat and spending rises?  The savings rate falls. In July, the savings rate dipped to 4.2% from 4.5% in June and from 6.0% in May. The rise in spending appeared to mostly be tied to the Cash for Clunkers program. Since it was only in effect for the last week of July, and for most of August, I would not be surprised to see spending rise again in August. I'm not sure about the direction of DPI....

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /blockquote"For what it’s worth, a key conclusion from the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook is that recessions caused by financial crisis typically end with export booms, with the trade balance improving,on average, by more than 3 percent of GDP. I find this a disturbing result: we’re now suffering from a global financial crisis, which means that the usual driver of recovery will only be available if we can find another planet to export to."br /a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/japans-recovery-again/"Paul Krugman /abr /br //blockquoteblockquoteWith results still coming in, projections show the United Progressive Alliance is likely to win about 250 seats, making it a shoo-in to form the next government and provide continuity, a stable administration and progress on key economic and corporate reforms.br /a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124247401653426893.html"Wall Street Journal/a, May 16 2009/blockquotebr /blockquotePrime Minister Manmohan Singh’s electoral victory, the biggest any Indian politician has scored in two decades, may ...

I've been thinking about trying to convey exactly how startling the drop in U.S. imports has been. First, take a look how much non-oil goods imports (in real terms) have dropped, relative to, for instance, GDP.

Figure 1: Log GDP (blue, left scale), log goods import ex.-oil from NIPA (red, right scale), estimated from trade release (purple, right scale), all in Ch.2000$, SAAR. 2009q1 estimate is based on actual January and February data and March estimate incorporating continued 5% decline from February. NBER recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, GDP final release of 26 March 2009, February trade release, NBER, and author's calculations.

The annualized drop in these imports was 36.5% in 2008Q4 (log terms). In addition, with non-oil imports dropping about 5% (non-annualized, in logs) in the first two months of 2009, 2009Q1 imports seem set continue the drop. In Figure 1, I've assumed that the

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From "Trade-Finance Pinch Hurts the Healthy," WSJ, 12/22/08:

The global financial crisis is drying up the financing that firms depend on for trade. That's making the global recession nastier and deeper than it otherwise would be.

As with all kinds of credit these days, financial institutions are making less trade finance available and charging more for it. But the squeeze in trade stands out because it pinches otherwise healthy companies that should be driving a recovery in global commerce. Already, the World Bank predicts trade will contract next year for the first time since 1982.

The Deteriorating Trade Outlook

Here's the IMF's recent forecasts for exports -- from October and then November -- for world trade, disaggregated into advanced and developing country groupings.

Figure 1: Real goods and services exports by country group. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Oct. 2008; Nov. 6 WEO update.

These developments in trade financing suggest that

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Brad Setser says "Ut-Oh", beating me to the punch on the September trade release, which showed US exports plunging. It's a post that Paul Krugman rightly expresses some angst upon reading. And now I'm going to add two more reasons to worry (not that I think Setser and Krugman aren't aware of these points).

First, after reflecting upon the collapse of exports noted by Setser, think "disaggregate".

Figure 1 depicts exports of capital goods; they declined 10%, exceeding the 8% reported for all goods exports (all calcuations in log terms). That's 10% for September alone. Since the standard deviation of monthly log changes is 3.1% (2004M02-08M9), well, that's pretty significant... Why focus on capital goods exports (more so than say ag exports), given their volatility? Because they represent foreign demand for goods that can be used to produce things; as demand for capital goods goes down, so too should

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About one-third of the S&P 500 reports earnings this week. Yesterday we saw euphoria and I thought it interesting that the major indices went up with oil prices. Today, oil prices are down, and stocks across the board slid at the open. Clearly, fears about the economy remain. Here are some things I'm reading today ... Robert Reich observes that the bailout plans, for all their trillions of dollars spent, are like "pouring water into an dry sponge." he says: Nothing will come out of it because Wall Street is so deep in debt that the banks are using the extra money to improve their balance sheets. They're hoarding it because their true balance sheets -- considering the off-balance sheet vehicles they created over the past several years -- are in such rotten shape.Mr. Reich also says: The underlying problem isn't a liquidity problem. As ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona India is in the middle of a storm at the moment, there can be no doubt about that. But the important point to note is that this storm is not of India's making. The financial turmoil in a number of key developed economies, and above all the United States, is sending shock waves across the global economy, and as is normal, when the earth trembles, it is the most fragile who notice it most. India's economy may be fragile in the sense that it is very vulnerable to what is colloqially known as global risk sentiment, but it is not fragile in terms of being susceptible to having its growth trajectory knocked completely off course. India may be shaken, but her economy will not be broken. Emerging Market Bonds Emerging-market bonds had their worst week in four years this week as the deepening credit crisis raised global recession concerns ...

by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaIndia is in the middle of a storm at the moment, there can be no doubt about that. But the important point to note is that this storm is not of India's making. The financial turmoil in a number of key developed economies, and above all the United States, is sending shock waves across the global economy, and as is normal, when the earth trembles, it is the most fragile who notice it most. India's economy may be fragile in the sense that it is very vulnerable to what is colloqially known as global risk sentiment, but it is not fragile in terms of being susceptible to having its growth trajectory knocked completely off course. India may be shaken, but her economy will not be broken.Emerging Market BondsEmerging-market bonds had their worst week in four years this week as the deepening ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona India's growth rate fell back in the second calendar quarter of 2008 (and the first quarter of the 2008/09 financial year), expanding at the slowest rate recorded in three years, as the Reserve Bank of India struggles to control record high inflation by applying tight credit conditions. Annual growth slowed to 7.9 per cent in the quarter of 2008 which ended on June 30, significantly lower than the 8.8 per cent rate reported for the January to March quarter. Growth momentum has obviously been slowing on tighter monetary policy and the adverse global environment. Higher interest rates, slower bank credit growth and higher oil and commodity prices are evidently now having a marked effect on activity levels in the Indian economy. However, in spite of the slowdown, the growth rate of Asia’s third largest economy remains strong, and there are very positive signs ...