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	<title>Stock Market News &#38; Stocks to Watch from StraightStocks &#187; non-bank</title>
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		<title>Improving financial regulation and supervision</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/improving-financial-regulation-and-supervision/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/improving-financial-regulation-and-supervision/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 03:03:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Hamilton</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alan Blinder]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/10/improving_finan.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>There were some other very interesting presentations at the conference hosted by the <a href="http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf54/index.htm">Federal Reserve Bank of Boston</a> last week.  Fed Chair Ben Bernanke spoke on <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091023a.htm">Financial Regulation and Supervision after the Crisis</a> while Princeton Professor Alan Blinder's message was <a href="http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf54/papers/blinder.pdf">It's Broke, Let's Fix It: Rethinking Financial Regulation</a>.  Here I summarize four key reforms these speakers addressed.</p>

<p><b> (1) Capital adequacy.</b> The <a href="http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2007/09/borrowing_short.html">key principle</a> for preventing the "bank run" dynamics of the recent financial turmoil is to make sure that financial institutions have a sufficient cushion of equity capital to be able to absorb liquidation and delinquency losses on assets without sacrificing the institution's ability to repay short-term creditors.  Equity capital is also a critical tool for addressing the core incentive problems arising from gambling with other people's money. As <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091023a.htm">Chair Bernanke observed</a>:</p> 

<blockquote><p>
Through the course of the crisis, it became increasingly clear that many firms lacked adequate capital and liquidity to protect themselves as well as the financial system as a whole.
</p></blockquote>

<p><a href="http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf54/papers/blinder.pdf">Professor Blinder elaborated</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>
the real leverage problems arose with (a) investment banks that operated (under a different regulatory regime [from commercial banks]) with 30 times leverage and more, and (b) gimmicks such as thinly-capitalized SIVs and conduits that (legally) avoided capital requirements...</p> </blockquote>
<p>

</p><p>Both Bernanke and Blinder further called attention to the problems with procyclical capital requirements. Standard capital requirements become looser when times are good, but that is exactly when it's most feasible and desirable for them to strengthen the equity cushion.  Blinder advocated reverse convertible debentures proposed by <a href="http://bear.cba.ufl.edu/flannery/No%20Pain,%20No%20Gain.pdf">Mark Flannery</a> and the <a href="http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Squam_Lake_Working_Paper3.pdf">Squam Lake Working Group on Financial Regulation</a> as a way to implement countercyclical capital requirements.</p>

<p>Though a conceptually different issue from equity capital, Blinder also favored requiring both mortgage originators and mortgage securitizers to retain 5% of any assets they create.</p>

<p><b> (2) Compensation.</b> Blinder observed: "Pay plans that are structured in such a 'heads I win, tails I don't lose' way create powerful incentives for traders to go for broke gambling with OPM ('other people's money')."  In his spoken remarks he added, "They did go for broke, and a lot of them achieved that objective."</p>  

<p>Here were Bernanke's observations on the subject:</p>

<blockquote><p>
flawed compensation practices at financial institutions also contributed to the crisis. Compensation, not only at the top but throughout a banking organization, should appropriately link pay to performance and provide sound incentives. In particular, compensation plans that encourage, even inadvertently, excessive risk-taking can pose a threat to safety and soundness. The Federal Reserve has just issued <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20091022a.htm">proposed guidance</a> that would require banking organizations to review their compensation practices to ensure they do not encourage excessive risk-taking, are subject to effective controls and risk management, and are supported by strong corporate governance including board-level oversight.
</p></blockquote>

<p><b>(3) Derivatives</b>. Though Bernanke did not say much about the explosion of financial instruments such as credit default swaps and their role in propagating the crisis, Blinder highlighted the desirability of changes:</p>

<blockquote><p>

While the regulation of derivatives is fraught with peril, it is not hard to improve upon what we have now-- which is practically nothing. I have argued for years that the most important step the government could take would be to push as much derivatives trading as possible into organized exchanges....</p>
<p>
The <a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/finregfinal06172009.pdf">Treasury White Paper</a> (p. 48) proposes to subject OTC derivatives to a "robust regime" of regulation that includes "conservative capital requirements," margins, reporting requirements, and "business conduct standards."

</p></blockquote>

<p><b>(4) Resolution mechanism.</b> Finally, both Bernanke and Blinder stressed the need for a mechanism to supervise the liquidation of failing systemically important financial institutions.  Blinder advocated:</p>
<blockquote><p>
we could develop a new resolution mechanism, perhaps patterned on what the FDIC now does with small banks (often before the bank's net worth goes negative), that would enable the authorities to wind down a systemically-important financial institution (including a non-bank) in an orderly fashion-- rather than just throwing it to the Chapter 11 wolves. This last idea is among the key ingredients of the Treasury's reform plan, has substantial support in Congress, and may well become law. If so, it would have several desirable effects.</p>
<ul><li>The TBTF doctrine would morph into “too big to be put into Chapter 11," but not "too big to be seized and its management thrown out." That change alone would go a long way toward reducing moral hazard.</li>
<li>Taxpayers would (mostly) be relieved of the burdens of costly bailouts....</li>
<li>Regulators would no longer have to keep large "zombie banks" (and non-banks) on life support for fear of the systemic consequences of shutting them down.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>

<p>Bernanke endorsed this reform as well:</p>  

<blockquote><p>the Congress should create a new set of authorities to facilitate the orderly resolution of failing, systemically important financial firms....  In light of the experience of the past year, it is clear that we need an option other than bankruptcy or bailout for such firms.</p>
<p>
A new resolution regime for nonbanks, analogous to the regime currently used by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for banks, would permit the government to wind down a failing systemically important firm in a way that reduces the risks to financial stability and the economy. Importantly, to restore a meaningful degree of market discipline and to address the too-big-to-fail problem, it is essential that there be a credible process for imposing losses on the shareholders and creditors of the firm. Any resolution costs incurred by the government should be paid through an assessment on the financial industry and not borne by the taxpayers.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>One detail I'd stress is the need for integration of the approaches to items (3) and (4) above.  One of the problems that makes bankruptcy messy for these institutions is that outstanding derivatives contracts can assume a life of their own, sucking assets out of the firm as the market moves against the firm's bets and in practice giving these contracts seniority over conventional debt.  From the perspective of society's best interests I don't think such seniority can be justified. I agree with the assertion in Blinder's spoken remarks that the economic costs of the latest recession exceed the cumulative potential efficiency benefits of what he referred to as "fancy finance."</p>

<p>I would propose that instruments such as the credit default swaps entered into by any systemically important financial institution should be subject to a regulatory stop-loss provision.  In a standard clearinghouse mechanism, each party delivers collateral against the possibility of the market moving against their original bet.  If the market moves too much, the loser either must add collateral or their position is wiped out.  If the institution continues to deliver new margin capital, it can become like the compulsive gambler doubling down as the firm's equity cushion essential for financial stability bleeds away.  Like the referee protecting a staggering boxer, the regulator needs the authority to declare "no mas" on an institution's commitment of new capital to such positions.</p>

<p>Bernanke concluded with the following:</p>

<blockquote><p>
we cannot lose sight of the need to reorient our supervisory approach and to strengthen our regulatory and legal framework to help prevent a recurrence of the events of the past two years.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>To which I would only add, Amen!</p>

]]></description>
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		<title>CarMax (NYSE:KMX): Upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/carmax-nysekmx-upgraded-to-buy-at-deutsche-bank/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/carmax-nysekmx-upgraded-to-buy-at-deutsche-bank/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2009 11:22:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Notable Calls</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[auto retailers;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[benchmark auto retailers;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Car Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CarMax;]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[finance co;]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29297569.post-8998191812113714153</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[div style="text-align: justify;"Deutsche Banks is making a catch-up call in span style="font-weight: bold;"CarMax (NYSE:KMX)/span raising their rating to Buy from Hold and bumping price tgt to $15 (prev. $10).br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Improvement in wholesale funding market has positive implications for CAF/spanbr /The combination of vastly stronger demand and contracting spreads on Auto ABS deals has mitigated one of our key concerns: That captive (non-bank) finance co's such as Carmax Auto Finance might be structurally impaired. Improving liquidity and lower borrowing costs suggest that this business can once again become an important contributor to KMX earnings (as well as a support to sales).br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"April deal appears profitable, and the market is now even better/spanbr /KMX completed its first ABS issuance since early July 2008 on April 9, 2009. The gross collateral spread was 7.3%, which was actually the highest on record. While this number does not account for increased loan loss provisions and credit enhancements, Deutsche Bank still believes that the terms of the securitization imply a $368 per unit profit on CAF originations, a dramatic improvement from early 1Q09 levels, when they estimate market conditions implied a -$106 per unit loss. At today’s spreads, they estimate per-unit profitability at $525 per unit.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"And they believe that retail business fundamentals should improve/spanbr /After historically outperforming the used car market, KMX appears to have underperformed the overall used industry over the past 3 quarters. Firm believes that this was partly attributable to segment mix (lower priced, older vehicles have already begun to recover, and “newer used” vehicles have lagged). While they anticipate near-term volatility, they believe that fundamentals could improve significantly over the next 6-12 months as automaker capacity consolidates, and the new vehicle market shifts from deflationary to inflationary pricing; particularly positive for the type of recent vintage used cars that represent KMX’s specialty.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Carmax has lagged the industry rally, which creates an opportunity/spanbr /While shares of traditional auto retailers have rallied by 50%-100% since early March, Carmax’s shares remain roughly flat, partially due (in Deutsche Bank's opinion) to structural concerns regarding CAF which they believe are substantially mitigated by ABS market improvements. They estimate that KMX shares could have 40%-50% upside from current levels (to target price of $15) if they apply the average forward multiple for benchmark auto retailers (14x-15x) to 2011 EPS estimate, which the firm sees as conservative. Primary downside risks include deterioration of loan losses, widening of ABS spreads, and lower consumer spending driven by higher unemployment.br /br /span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"Notablecalls:/span A real ketchup call but it will likely work. After all Deutsche has spent past 3 yrs on Hold.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"I suspect the stock can trade towards $11 level if the market continues to hold. /spanbr //divdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/29297569-8998191812113714153?l=notablecalls.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
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		<title>Is Purchasing $700 billion of Toxic Assets the Best Way to Recapitalize the Financial System? No! &#8211; Nouriel Roubini</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/is-purchasing-700-billion-of-toxic-assets-the-best-way-to-recapitalize-the-financial-system-no-nouriel-roubini/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:10:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Lee</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Is Purchasing $700 billion of Toxic Assets the Best Way to Recapitalize the Financial System? No! It is Rather a Disgrace and Rip-Off Benefitting only the Shareholders and Unsecured Creditors of Banks<br /><br /><a href="http://new.goldmau.com/article.php?id=761">Continue reading</a>]]></description>
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		<title>More Credit Ripples: Asset-Back Paper</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/more-credit-ripples-asset-back-paper/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Aug 2007 21:28:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Richard Shaw</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Market News]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[NY Times, August 24
“The size of the commercial paper market, a crucial source of short-term financing for businesses, decreased 4.2 percent last week, the biggest drop in at least seven years, as investors fled asset-backed debt and opted for the safety of Treasuries….
… The retreat may indicate that the Fed’s decision to lower the discount [...]]]></description>
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