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Hidden Traps Make Bank Stocks a Bad Deal

Contrarian Profits (October 6th, 2009) Writes:

Billionaire investor George Soros said yesterday (Monday) that the U.S. recovery would be a slow one because of all the “basically bankrupt” financial companies impeding it.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Congress agreed Friday that the financial system – not the American taxpayer – should bear the costs of bank bailouts. Sheila Bair, head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), wants the banks to ante up $45 billion – three years’ worth of deposit-insurance premiums – to bail out the fund that insures bank deposits.

When it comes to bank stocks, we all know that there were a number of Money Morning readers shrewd enough to buy Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) shares when the foundering giant’s stock price was below $1 a share.

If you’re one of those investors, good for you: With Citi’s shares now trading at nearly $4.70 a share,

...

More on bank lending data

James Hamilton (June 2nd, 2009) Writes:

Further evidence on the decline in bank lending.

Last week I highlighted the debate over the degree of the contraction in bank lending. Another issue that I neglected to mention is that the series on bank lending used by Chari, Christiano and Kehoe referred only to lending by commercial banks. When assets of failed thrifts are acquired by commercial banks, the result is that the measured loans by commercial banks go up even though aggregate lending may have gone down.

Zach Pandl of Nomura Securities calls my attention to their analysis which constructs a series that tries to correct for these reclassifications. Nomura found that these corrections eliminate the increase in bank lending that one would otherwise see in the original commercial bank lending data.

Source: Global Weekly Economic Monitor, courtesy of Nomura Research. all_lending_jun_09.gif ...

Plummeting Retail Sales in April Bury Economic “Green Shoots”

Don Miller (May 14th, 2009) Writes:

Those elusive “green shoots” that economic optimists had been digging up lately were buried under disappointing data from the Commerce Department in Washington yesterday (Wednesday) when it was revealed that retail sales in the unexpectedly dropped in April.

Sales at U.S. retailers dropped 0.4%, the eighth monthly decline in the last 10 months, following a revised 1.3% drop in March that was larger than previously estimated.  Excluding auto dealers, sales fell 0.5%

Economists had expected an increase of 0.5% to 1.0%.  Since July, retail sales have shown increases only in January and February, and those were attributed to post-holiday sales.

The disappointing numbers indicate surging unemployment and the worst housing market in decades could temper consumers’ appetite for spending for years, analysts said. As long as consumer spending is muted, which accounts for about 70% of all economic activity, any recovery from the worst recession in over 50 years is likely to

...

Nomura Securties on UAE’s property sector

Jason G. Wulterkens (February 19th, 2009) Writes:
Property prices in the UAE will likely drop by another 15% (adding to the 25% decrease in the fourth quarter of 2008), according to a report issued by Nomura Securities, an investment bank. “The property sector is maturing at breakneck speed and a shakeout will see more casualties, with this year marked by consolidation as companies struggle to stay afloat,” noted one analyst. That said, Nomura gave the region’s top property developer, Emaar Properties, a “buy” rating, with a target price of Dh2.87. “Emaar is the largest and most liquid company under our coverage and benefits from strong government support,” the report said, adding that Emaar is now entering the second stage of its maturity cycle, and expects to derive 12 -15 % of its net profits from recurring income streams. Furthermore, Emaar has low net debt gearing and no apparent ...

Why the Federal Reserve Can’t Save the Dollar

Money Morning (December 6th, 2008) Writes:
Since Ben Bernanke touted the dollar’s muscle in 2002, the greenback has fallen 40% against world currencies. This free report reveals what’s next for the greenback and four ways you can profit… Unraveling the future direction of the dollar has consistently made fools of economists and other financial gurus. But right now, if you closely examine the history and current economic tradewinds, the clouds begin to part. Fact is, the value of the dollar isn’t just some nebulous economic macrotrend. It has a dramatic effect on your everyday life. From the cost of food and gasoline, to interest rates on car and home loans, Americans deal with the impact of the incredible shrinking dollar in their businesses and daily lives. Knowing which way the dollar is headed can help your portfolio hum and let you sleep like a baby at night. The exclusive, free report reveals how ...

Japanese Stock Indexes See Large Turnover

IndexUniverse Staff (December 1st, 2008) Writes:
State Street Global Advisors' SDPRs offer the only two Japanese equity ETFs based on this index series. The annual rebalancing of the Russell/Nomura Japanese stock indexes just concluded, resulting in more than 30% turnover rates for each series in the benchmarking family. The Russell/Nomura Total Value Index had 212 deletions and 176 additions, while the Russell/Nomura Total Growth Index had 270 deletions and 136 additions. Those changes represented capitalization turnover ratios of 30.9% for value, and 33.3% for growth, among the highest-ever index rebalancing for the Russell Investments and Nomura Securities' Japanese equity benchmarks since their launch in 1981. There are Japanese stock exchange-traded funds from Barclays Global Investors' iShares family, Northern Trust's NETS and from WisdomTree Investments. However, State Street Global Advisors' SDPRs offers the only two Japanese equity ETFs based on this index series: the SPDR Russell/Nomura PRIME Japan ETF (NYSE Arca: JPP) and the Russell/Nomura Small Cap Japan ETF (NYSE Arca: JSC). JPP ...

Japan Officially Enters Recession as Exports Lose Steam

Money Morning (November 17th, 2008) Writes:
Japan, the world’s second largest economy, officially entered into a recession in the third quarter, as growth shrank at an annualized rate of 0.4% after posting a second-quarter contraction of 3.7%. Japan’s downturn is worse than many economists had expected and could worsen, as consumers in the United States continue to retrench. “Downside risks to the economy are growing further,” Kaoru Yosano, Japan’s finance minister, told reporters. “Japan is in a very serious situation.” Japan’s domestic economy remains weak with declining wages and rising unemployment. But the greater danger is a sharp drop in exports, especially to the United States. Net exports shaved 0.2% off of growth, as imports outweighed a slight increase in overseas shipments. Exports rose just 0.7% in the third quarter, less than the 1.2% forecast. Meanwhile, imports climbed 1.9%, as the cost of oil spiked in the July-September period....

How to Profit From the Emerging Markets Investment Banking Boom

Martin Hutchinson (August 20th, 2008) Writes:
By Martin Hutchinson Contributing Editor Emerging markets are the place for investment bankers to wheel and deal during the next couple of years, as bankers in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America earn an increasing share of investment banking revenue. Emerging markets share of investment banking revenue has increased both in percentage share and total value over the past few years. In 2005, investment-banking revenue from emerging markets accounted for almost $40 billion, or 16% of the global investment-banking revenue total. Those figures increased to just over $78 billion, a 21% share of the total in 2007. Emerging markets’ share of investment banking revenue will soar to 28%-30% by 2010, according to McKinsey Quarterly. And depending on how quickly the global financial markets recover, emerging markets will see investment banking revenue growth from $40 billion to somewhere between $90 billion and ...

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