Bill King: The folly of government statistics
Prieur du Plessis (August 4th, 2009) Writes:
This post is a guest contribution by Bill King*, well-respected and straight-talking author of The King Report.
Most of the Street heralded the 1% decline in Q2 GDP because it was 0.5% better than consensus - even though the US government admitted in the release that its GDP estimates over the past several years were consistently wrong! So why should the latest report be any more accurate?!?!
We feel compelled to address the scheme of past-month lower revisions producing better-than-expected m/m or q/q results, even though the aggregate metric is worse than expected. We have incessantly noted and commented on this scam but most of the trading and investing universe omits it.
We will again utilize basic math to illustrate the scam. If Q4 ‘08 GDP was 100 units, and Q1 ‘09 was reported at -5.5% and Q2 ‘09 GDP was expected to be -1.5%, the
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